Toronto Raptors

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Couper Moorhead

1. At this stage of the season, with either the Play-In or the Playoffs looming, a nice breath of fresh air is always appreciated.

Even with nothing to play for, standings wise, Toronto played this one out with the regular that were available and nobody was exactly sleepwalking through the on-court proceedings. This was a real game, through and through, and Miami was two steps ahead almost the entire way through two quarters.

Toronto’s starters, running five-out with Kelly Olynyk, ran some decent offense during the opening stretch, keeping things tied at 10. Once they dipped into their rotation, all that stopped, the lack of interior pressure allowing Miami to pressure up on the perimeter, conceding the occasional straight-line drive but otherwise jamming up the opposition. Raptors still managed a respectable, average Offensive Rating even with just four makes from the arc, but without the ability to stop much of anything Miami was doing on the other end, the scoring gap widened and widened.

Two quarters are only two quarters, but these might have been the best Miami has had in weeks when it comes to straight up shot quality, wide open threes on top of wide open driving lanes on top of wide open cutting lanes, nothing at all required in the mid-range as they shot 9-of-22 from deep and 12-of-13 at the rim, Toronto unable to keep up past the first drive-and-kick rotation. They did double Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in the post, continuing that big-picture trend, but beyond a couple against-the-clock possessions there wasn’t enough else getting in Miami’s way as they posted an Offensive Rating over 150. HEAT by 16 at the break, little coming from Toronto which required holding off.

The lead was 20 soon enough, but again Toronto’s starters put together some offense, RJ Barrett getting to the rim as Miami’s offense hit a lull. Raptors had a couple shots to get it down to single digits, the threes just didn’t cooperate. Those chances were their last, Miami’s bench again extending the lead to offer a comfortable cushion even as Toronto hung within 20. So went the fourth quarter, so went the game, 125-103 for Miami, doing the work to keep hope alive for getting out of the Play-In.

2. At this point of the season, when you’re fulfilling the schedule against a lottery-bound team as you hope for help from elsewhere in the standings, there isn’t much learning left to do. We know what we’re going to know about this group, and a team like Toronto isn’t going to present any reason for that to change.

It was, however, another nice game for Nikola Jovic in a string of nice games for Nikola Jovic, hitting 4-of-10 from three, 22 points on 17 shots in all, and keeping his body moving to capitalize on those cutting lanes. Tyler Herro (17 points on 10 shots) kept the offense moving, as did Butler (seven assists), and those five-out bench units with Kevin Love had the Toronto bench groups in constant closeout mode. Miami shot better than 40 percent from three again tonight but their Offensive Rating sustained well over 130 for most of the night, unlike against Dallas on Wednesday, because everything in the paint was alive and active. Nothing about this game resembled the playoffs, but it was full of things you want to see headed into them.

3. Time for another standings update, where Orlando lost to Philadelphia to keep Miami’s hopes of getting out of the Play-In alive and Indiana lost to Cleveland (who clinched a postseason spot). If Miami wants to get to No. 6 or even No. 5, the two things that have to happen on Sunday are a Miami win over Toronto and an Orlando loss to Milwaukee, with either an Indiana loss to Atlanta (their spot is locked in) or a Philadelphia loss to Brooklyn (with nothing to play for). Not exactly likely, but it’s possible.

One important factor is that with Milwaukee playing Orlando on Sunday – the Bucks lost in Oklahoma City and New York beat Brooklyn – and the No. 2 spot up for grabs, we don’t yet know how those teams will manage that game, or how any other teams will manage any other game, for that matter. Some teams prioritize seeding and/or home court, some team prioritize health, not wanting to deal with any injuries in the final game of the regular season. Again, Orlando has to lose for Miami to have a chance of getting out of the Play-In – that division title all important in multi-team tiebreakers – while Orlando, Indiana and Philadelphia are all possible opponents in the Play-In.

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Coup's Takeaways : HEAT Take Care Of Business Against Toronto In Penultimate Regular Season Game

1. No team is immune to a horrible, rotten, no good, very bad day.

Miami has won a few games in the mud lately, games where neither team could make a shot and the pace was reduced to a slog’s idea of a slog. The problem tonight in Toronto was that Miami was still in one of those games while the Raptors – down Pascal Siakam who was traded earlier in the day, with none of the return players available – were playing a video game.

There’s cold shooting, and then there’s the HEAT’s 1-of-16 from three in the first half. There’s hot shooting, and then there’s Toronto’s 14-of-22 from three in the first half. Yes, you read that right. Seven Raptors hit at least one three with Gary Trent Jr. (28 points on 13 shots) going 4-of-5, and with just as many paint points and attacks (23 assists on 29 field goals) it was all enough for a 162.5 Offensive Rating and 78-43 advantage at the break. There were no silver linings.

Toronto came out as many teams with such a massive lead do in the second half, their defense hitting the snooze button, as Miami cracked the window open, first getting the lead down to 27 on a series of paint scores. Then 25. Then 23 and 21, an 18-2 run – with plenty of good moments from Nikola Jovic – over the course of about six minutes with the Raptors now missing all those threes that were falling. Still 21 going into the fourth, a much more manageable number.

Sure enough, the push was not over, Miami plugging away while Toronto was leaking easy points in the middle on one end and committing turnovers on the other. Down to 13 with just under nine minutes to play, the dream no longer a dream if only just a three could fall. Instead, Toronto hits a pair to push it back to 19. And that, dear reader, was the end of this story, Scottie Barnes (20 points on 16 shots) finishing things out with some tough buckets before Erik Spoelstra cleared the bench. It was a dream worth dreaming, but reality hits hard with a 121-97 final score that ignores the fleeting hope of the early fourth quarter. During Halloween, everyone may be entitled to a good scare, but during January in the NBA, everyone is entitled to a rough one.

2. There really isn’t much actual basketball to break down in this one – though it was curious how many basket cuts the Raptors kept giving up in the second half, perhaps due to being so concerned with the HEAT getting hot from three – but there are some small morsels of credit to give out. Not to the HEAT for continuing to play hard. That much we expect from them. Instead, we can give some credit to Nikola Jovic (10 points on 4-of-9 shooting, seven rebounds, two assists) for making his mark in that third quarter, hitting some tough shots in the paint, hitting a three, slinging the ball around as he’s proven himself more than capable of doing and, on one special play, going coast-to-coast for a lookaway finger roll that was a drop of water in an offensive desert at the time. Jovic keeps flashing potential all around the court while minimizing his mistakes, so it’s no surprise that Spoelstra has been sticking with him in the starting group even as the team gets healthy.

3. Long ago, way back in a year we called 1996, the HEAT made a huge in-season trade with the Golden State Warriors for point guard Tim Hardaway. That trade worked out well, to say the least, but players tied up in transaction limbo for one night it meant the HEAT were left with just eight available players as the Chicago Bulls – the Chicago Bulls that were in the midst of setting the NBA all-time wins record – came to town.

Easy night to write off, right? Turns out Miami would shoot 15-of-23 from three – 5-of-18 for Chicago – as Rex Chapman wrote the script for The Rex Chapman game with a 39-point showing on 9-of-10 shooting from deep, giving Chicago one of their 10 losses of the season.

The lesson of this story? Never count out a shorthanded team amid roster change, as both the shorthandedness and the change have ways of motivating players, or at least capturing some basketball magic, that nobody can predict.

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Coup's Takeaways: Shorthanded Raptors Run Away With First Half Behind Avalanche Of Threes

The Miami HEAT are 12-10, No. 9 in the Eastern Conference with a Net Rating of +1.0, No. 16 in the league. With the two In-Season Tournament additions to the schedule done with the HEAT have two baseball series coming up, first against the Charlotte Hornets and then with another pair against the Chicago Bulls. Here’s what we’ve been noting and noticing.

A strange thing happened Friday night against Cleveland. No, Duncan Robinson did not make a three, going 0-of-6 in 23 minutes, but even if it was his first game of the season without a triple that doesn’t make it strange. Every shooter has off nights, even those hovering around the league lead in percentages, and Robinson missing a few open looks and a few contested ones is just how it goes.

What was strange was that Robinson, who has nearly quadrupled the rate at which he attempts two-pointers from any point in his career, only took one shot that wasn’t a three for just the second time this season, the other coming against an excellent defensive team in Boston. Which leaves us to ask a question that would have felt entirely out of place before the past month: why didn’t Duncan Robinson attempt more two pointers?

Just two nights earlier in Toronto, Robinson had tied his career-high with nine two-point attempts and set a career-high with six two-point makes – also dropping from seven assists to just one between the two games. Why the sudden drop off? All you have to do is look at the defense.

It helped that Toronto had a series of breakdowns on Wednesday, losing Robinson on off-ball cuts or, in the case of Dennis Schroeder, literally standing at the top of the arc defending nobody while Robinson walked off a pick for his first dunk in two years and the eleventh of his career. There was also one possession where Robinson, on a short clock, took Precious Achiuwa off the dribble in isolation and hit a mid-range jumper. Those things happen, even if the Schroeder mistake was one of the more bizarre mistakes you’ll see all year. Let’s put all those possessions aside and focus on what Toronto did with a little more purpose.

Take this simple play, for example. Robinson simply coming around an Orlando Robinson pick and, with Achiuwa back off the line, was able to walk into a three.

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Notebook 60: Duncan Drop Three

“If they drop, it’s going to be tough to drop on Duncan because the next time he gets a screen he’s going to shoot a three,” Orlando Robinson said.

This doesn’t quite get into why he took so many two-pointers in that game, but it does show the relative lack of pressure Robinson was feeling with the ball in his hands. We’re getting there. Now, watch this next clip and see how Toronto plays Robinson.

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Notebook 60: Duncan Drop Floater

Again, relatively soft, retreating coverage even if Jakob Poeltl starts off higher up on the screen. Teams aren’t going to freak out too much about a driving floater, though surely this one could have been contested better, but again nothing was stopping Robinson from getting into what has increasingly become his comfort zone.

Finally, here’s a similar possession from later in that same fourth quarter, with Orlando Robinson shadowing Duncan’s movements.

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Notebook 60: Duncan Driving Lane Assist

“I have to stay with [Duncan], I can’t leave him,” Orlando Robinson said. “I have to stay lined up with him. If the big is all the way down I have to stay in the little pocket so that if he doesn’t score it, and the big is all the way back, then I get it and that’s a finish.”

Not a two-point attempt, but Robinson is able to get into the lane and create the assist opportunity for two reasons: Poeltl drops back and concedes space while Schroeder provides minimal help on Robinson’s dribble. The lack of pressure on one of Miami’s primary offensive threats, especially that night with Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro out, was noticeable.

Now watch these three possessions from Friday in Cleveland and see if you catch the differences.

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Notebook 60: Cleveland Duncan Coverage

First possession, Jarrett Allen is right up to touch on the ball as Robinson catches coming off an Orlando Robinson screen. Robinson eventually loses his dribble because everyone was having turnover issues that night, but there was no immediate read available to him as Allen’s positioning allows Max Strus to recover. No shot, no drive. Next possession, Dean Wade is up at the arc as Robinson comes off the screen and while Robinson makes the correct read to try the pocket pass – which he’s generally been very good at this season – the ball is deflected.

“It just got deflected,” Orlando Robinson said, “but more often than not we get that pass through.”

And on the third possession, Strus pinches off Josh Richardson, just like Miami does so often, into Robinson’s airspace to stall the action while Georges Niang plays a little further back to hold onto Orlando Robinson’s role.

Could Robinson and the rest of the team handled these coverages better? Without a doubt, especially where the pocket pass to Orlando Robinson was available. They’ve been better for much of the season. But Cleveland is a good defensive team and they were able to combine smart gameplanning with good activity and execution.

Every player, every team has good games, bad games and games in between that, aesthetically, just look a little different. Sometimes things are out of their control, which is why watching the defense is just as instructive. Anyone watching Saturday’s In-Season Tournament finale saw something similar, with the Los Angeles Lakers blitzing the ball out of Tyrese Haliburton’s hands and Indiana unable to make them pay down the stretch.

Whenever a team tries something new, or reattempts an old strategy, against a star player it’s also worth taking stock, especially when those strategies intersect with some of that star’s least efficient games of the season, whether directly responsible or not.

During the first week of the season, new Milwaukee head coach Adrian Griffin made the move to put Giannis Antetokounmpo on Jimmy Butler from the very first possession of the game, a move Mike Budenholzer had previously been reticent to make despite the success the Bucks had had with that matchup in sweeping Miami out of the 2021 postseason. Last week, Pacers coach Rick Carlisle decided to use 6-foot-9 stretch power forward Obi Toppin on Butler full time, and this Friday Cavaliers coach J.B. Bickerstaff used Tristan Thompson, effectively a center in today’s game, on Butler for brief but noticeable stretches. Butler’s individual results varied, but one thing clear in all three games was that it was more difficult for Butler to get post-ups early in the clock as he likes to do, instead having to manipulate screens and use more clock to hunt the right matchups.

“It’s like there was a period of time where teams were putting centers on Giannis to try and give him more size and try to take away easy baskets, and then that started to become a bad thing,” Erik Spoelstra said after the loss to Cleveland. “I’m sure teams are calculating trying to get bigger bodies on Jimmy so he doesn’t get easy baskets. It’s a super small sample size. I feel like we’re going to be able to manage that and it’s good to go through a bunch of different things. Jimmy is at that level now where people are throwing a bunch of different things at him. He’s used to it, we’re used to it. I don’t necessarily think that that was a major factor in tonight.”

The common denominator in all three games was that Bam Adebayo was not available. Certainly, given Adebayo’s progression as a matchup-hunter and isolation scorer in his own right, having an elite big man available would make it tougher to pull away size to put on Butler – except in Milwaukee’s case with Brook Lopez also in the lineup. Miami has also been using Kevin Love at center quite a bit, lineups that are +15.5 per 100 possessions so far, and in Cleveland’s case that meant putting Donovan Mitchell on Love so Thompson, the center in those defensive lineups, could take Butler.

As Spoelstra said, it’s an extremely small sample size. Nothing means anything yet, other than that these matchups have been factors, big or small, in Miami losses. What we’ll learn going forward is whether or not this is a trend, whether teams are going into games planning to use size against Butler, or whether it’s more of a night-to-night, out-of-necessity choice coaches are making. Keep an eye out. For now, Toppin has 83 half-court matchups with Butler. The next closest player, Jeremy Sochan, has 42.

Recently on The Point Forward podcast with Andre Iguodala and Evan Turner, with Jayson Tatum as the guest, Iguodala had this to say to Tatum:

“I learned this in Miami, they are so good at finding your weakness. I was going to bring this up . . . in terms of them being your Detroit Pistons. The Miami HEAT have. It’s like the Jordan Rules, it’s the Tatum Rules. I’ve seen it put together. They will figure out what your weakness is. They’ll say after you take three dribbles, we’re doing this. It’s that detailed. Not like going left, not going right. After three dribbles we’re doing this, when it’s this much time on the shot clock, this triggers. After 15, this is the trigger. I’m like, Yo . . . I learned so much in that organization.”

That portion of the conversation spread around social media recently and it certainly tracks with what we’ve seen of Miami for years. Elite offensive players like Tatum – Luke Doncic and Nikola Jokic have notably taken Miami’s various schemes mostly in stride – have certainly had their share of success against the HEAT, postseason or otherwise, but outside of a scheme designed to limit rim attempts if you were going to say there was one thing Spoelstra and his staff do best on the defensive end its gameplan for specific stars. It’s the level of detail Iguodala is speaking about here that has a lot to do with that.

We talk about this every season at some point, but let’s do it again. Right now Miami is No. 28 in the NBA averaging just 40.7 rebounds per game. Doesn’t sound great, does it? But does it mean anything? Nope.

It does tell you a few things, though. First, it tells you that Miami is not playing at a very fast pace, No. 24 in averaging 98.6 possessions per game – a number that will likely come down after a pair of upcoming games against the Chicago Bulls, No. 30 in pace. Miami’s possession counts are typically lower because their defense tends to drag opposing possessions out – that hasn’t been the case lately, though that’s an effect of Adebayo missing time – they don’t play much in transition and their half-court offense cycles through multiple actions to find good looks. The lack of total rebounds also tells you that Miami has not been particularly interested in the offensive glass, as they’re No. 27 in Offensive Rebounding percentage, a ranking supporting by similarly low crash rates according to the tracking data. Offensive Rebounding rates that low often imply a focus on transition defense.

“I would like a little bit more attacks and opportunities to get second-chance opportunities,” Spoelstra said. “However these transition opportunities for opponents at key points in the game . . . we haven’t had guys back that lead to very deflating baskets. We have been emphasizing the last couple weeks getting a couple more guys back and I think that has affected our offensive rebounding as a result.”

The kicker is that Miami is actually fourth in the league in defensive rebounding percentage, by far the most important side of rebounding to be good at. Offensive rebounding is a choice. Defensive rebounding is one of two ways to finish a possession, the other also being a HEAT strength in forcing turnovers, without getting scored on.

Miami has been Top 5 in defensive rebounding percentage in two of the past five seasons, was No. 9 in another and their only “bad” rebounding year was the 2020-21 pandemic-shortened, reduced-offseason season everyone would rather forget. This roster build, anchored by Adebayo and Butler, has almost always been great or at least good on the defensive glass.

For the umpteenth year, please stop using raw rebounding totals or margins. That’s a habit we should have left back in the 1990’s.

-After leaving the first game against Indiana last week, Bam Adebayo had his career-long streak of 10 games with at least 20 points broken.

-Miami ranks No. 15 in the percent of their field goal attempts (35.1) that is coming from three, their lowest mark since acquiring Jimmy Butler before the 2019-20 season. They’re also taking the exact same rate of shots in the restricted area, 28.4 percent, as last year. Of course Miami is No. 13 in Offensive Rating, in part because they’ve made threes even at lower volume (38.3 percent) and because their turnovers have been so low outside of Friday night’s 18 against the Cavaliers.

“I’m not sure yet where exactly where we want to be,” Spoelstra said. “I just like where our offense has been other than this last Cleveland game. These last three weeks I like the direction it has been going, not only from a pace standpoint, identity standpoint, but a comfort and role standpoint. I’m encouraged by a lot of good things offensively, so if that means our three point rate is where it is and we’re being as aggressive as we are, that might be where we are.”

-We don’t have a perfect way of checking this, but as best we can tell Orlando Robinson recently became at least the third player to open a season making his first six three pointers before missing one in Toronto the other night, with Tony Parker and Keith Bogans having done that before. Patty Mills may hold the record there, opening the 2021 season with 10 consecutive three-point makes, while Oklahoma City Thunder guard opening his rookie season this year with five consecutive makes.

-Over his last six games Caleb Martin is averaging 17.8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists on 59.1 percent true-shooting. With that stretch chock full of hard drives, acrobatic finishes and quick-twitch changes of direction – including a spin move Martin said felt good to use again – it’s fair to say he’s feeling much more like himself after starting the season with a knee injury.

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Coup’s Notebook Vol. 61: A Question We Never Thought We’d Ask, New Matchups For Jimmy Butler, How We Talk About Rebounding And Miami’s Threes

1. This was not your older brother’s typical HEAT-Raptors matchup. At least for a bit.

Anyone who has been watching these teams play each other for about the last eight years would very naturally expect rocks to be thrown, feet to be in molasses and slugs to be fested, but tonight flipped the script and instead we got yet another double-digit lead in the first quarter that ultimately meant nothing.

Miami opened shooting 5-of-7 from three – how often does that seem to happen when they’re missing Jimmy Butler (19 points on 16 shots) or, as they were tonight, Bam Adebayo – without making a single two, which means if you’re a math major you’ve sorted that they had 15 points, with Toronto putting up just four. Then it was the Raptors’ turn for a run, OG Anunoby following up Caleb Martin’s hot start and by the end of the first period, both sides making about half their threes, it was 37-32.

More of the same in the second, neither side able to get anything close to a stop. This wasn’t a particularly fast game, but Miami looked like a little bit of the Indiana Pacers’ style rubbed off on them as they pushed off makes and misses – neither team was turning the ball over – to create a precious handful of easy opportunities. But with Pascal Siakam (30 points on 13 shots) doing his best Butler impression, working the paint and getting to the line, Toronto jumped out ahead, 66-64 at the break – both teams combining for 20 threes, 40 assists and just five turnovers, with Offensive Ratings topping 135.

All Miami to open the third with an elongated 16-0 run as the Raptors started coughing up turnovers, nearly tripling their first-half turnover total six minutes into the period. One Toronto breakdown was so bad that Duncan Robinson came off a screen at the three-point line and walked in for a dunk with no defenders within ten feet of him. Toronto’s first points in the third didn’t come until the 5:34 mark. And yet, because Gary Trent Jr. dropped in a couple threes to close out of the period, at 23-18 much closer to typical HEAT-Raptors quarters, Miami’s lead was only three.

All tied up soon after that with both sides struggling to convert, only for Miami, with Duncan Robinsons handling the ball, to hit back to lead by 10 as Toronto’s offense devolved into nothing but missed threes in the face of the HEAT’s zone defense. Another clutch one, finally the slugfest that was promised, Toronto missing a couple opportunities to score in transition costing them dearly as Miami pulled back ahead by 10 under two minutes to play. Miami takes this one, 112-103, holding Toronto to just 37 second-half points in the process. And with just seven tonight, Miami now leads the league with six games of eight or fewer turnovers.

2. If your last name was Robinson, you had a pretty good night. Nobody is going to remember this as Duncan’s most efficient outing, 21 points on 19 attempts, but when you throw in seven assists and remember that Miami was without Adebayo and Tyler Herro, thus needing someone to soak up playmaking possessions, you begin to see why Duncan, a +31, for the night, was so crucial. Nothing new as he’s been doing this for the past few weeks in Herro’s absence, but this whole new Duncan, running pick-and-rolls and getting downhill (6-of-9 in the paint tonight) continues to give defenses absolute fits. Granted, Toronto made a handful of defensive mistakes that were on the inexplicable side of things, but Robinson’s mere presence tends to cause misfires in the ol’ synapses and he was good for 10 of Miami’s 25 points – including a relocation sidestep three in the closing minutes – in the final period to help seal the win. This just might be who Robinson is now, and it’s best, and most complete, he’s ever been.

It was Orlando Robinson, however, who was the surprise of the evening. We’ve known about Robinson’s potential as a shooter for some time now, it just hasn’t been fully realized until these past two games where he’s joined the starting lineup in Adebayo’s stead, hitting 2-of-2 from deep against Indiana and 2-of-3 tonight. Throw in a handful of free throws, one coming from a driving and-one that he finished through contact, four assists and a crucial fourth-quarter play where he caught the ball wide open at the arc in transition, with a teammate telling him to shoot, only to power dribble his way into the lane for the finish. Nobody needs Orlando to be Adebayo, they just need him to be solid at what he does best. That’s what he was tonight, his first career double-double at 15 and 12 as he almost equaled Duncan at +27.

For one night in Toronto, it was all about the Robinson’s.

3. Caleb Martin’s career-high was 28 points coming into this game. After just a few minutes, he was already 3-of-4 from three.  With over seven minutes left in the second quarter, he had 23 on 9-of-11 shooting, looking every bit like the Caleb Martin that almost usurped the Eastern Conference Finals MVP from Butler against Boston.

That Martin only finished with 24 on 16 shots, also a +17, falling short of his career-high 28 that came in that shorthanded game against Milwaukee all those moons ago, is almost besides the point. Martin’s role isn’t to carry a huge offensive burden. It’s to be efficient in his opportunities, push the pace, be aggressive attacking closeouts and, when the clock is short, dip into his college bag and create some offense. When he’s been healthy, he’s been a star in that role, and after a slow started to the season involving a knee injury and the subsequent shaking of the rust, you could feel Martin playing more and more to his style over the past week or so.

Toronto Raptors

Coup's Takeaways : HEAT Take Care Of Business Against Toronto In Penultimate Regular Season Game

Coup's Takeaways: Shorthanded Raptors Run Away With First Half Behind Avalanche Of Threes

Coup’s Notebook Vol. 61: A Question We Never Thought We’d Ask, New Matchups For Jimmy Butler, How We Talk About Rebounding And Miami’s Threes

Coup's Takeaways : The Robinsons Close Out Toronto Down The Stretch