1. At this stage of the season, with either the Play-In or the Playoffs looming, a nice breath of fresh air is always appreciated.
Even with nothing to play for, standings wise, Toronto played this one out with the regular that were available and nobody was exactly sleepwalking through the on-court proceedings. This was a real game, through and through, and Miami was two steps ahead almost the entire way through two quarters.
Toronto’s starters, running five-out with Kelly Olynyk, ran some decent offense during the opening stretch, keeping things tied at 10. Once they dipped into their rotation, all that stopped, the lack of interior pressure allowing Miami to pressure up on the perimeter, conceding the occasional straight-line drive but otherwise jamming up the opposition. Raptors still managed a respectable, average Offensive Rating even with just four makes from the arc, but without the ability to stop much of anything Miami was doing on the other end, the scoring gap widened and widened.
Two quarters are only two quarters, but these might have been the best Miami has had in weeks when it comes to straight up shot quality, wide open threes on top of wide open driving lanes on top of wide open cutting lanes, nothing at all required in the mid-range as they shot 9-of-22 from deep and 12-of-13 at the rim, Toronto unable to keep up past the first drive-and-kick rotation. They did double Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo in the post, continuing that big-picture trend, but beyond a couple against-the-clock possessions there wasn’t enough else getting in Miami’s way as they posted an Offensive Rating over 150. HEAT by 16 at the break, little coming from Toronto which required holding off.
The lead was 20 soon enough, but again Toronto’s starters put together some offense, RJ Barrett getting to the rim as Miami’s offense hit a lull. Raptors had a couple shots to get it down to single digits, the threes just didn’t cooperate. Those chances were their last, Miami’s bench again extending the lead to offer a comfortable cushion even as Toronto hung within 20. So went the fourth quarter, so went the game, 125-103 for Miami, doing the work to keep hope alive for getting out of the Play-In.
2. At this point of the season, when you’re fulfilling the schedule against a lottery-bound team as you hope for help from elsewhere in the standings, there isn’t much learning left to do. We know what we’re going to know about this group, and a team like Toronto isn’t going to present any reason for that to change.
It was, however, another nice game for Nikola Jovic in a string of nice games for Nikola Jovic, hitting 4-of-10 from three, 22 points on 17 shots in all, and keeping his body moving to capitalize on those cutting lanes. Tyler Herro (17 points on 10 shots) kept the offense moving, as did Butler (seven assists), and those five-out bench units with Kevin Love had the Toronto bench groups in constant closeout mode. Miami shot better than 40 percent from three again tonight but their Offensive Rating sustained well over 130 for most of the night, unlike against Dallas on Wednesday, because everything in the paint was alive and active. Nothing about this game resembled the playoffs, but it was full of things you want to see headed into them.
3. Time for another standings update, where Orlando lost to Philadelphia to keep Miami’s hopes of getting out of the Play-In alive and Indiana lost to Cleveland (who clinched a postseason spot). If Miami wants to get to No. 6 or even No. 5, the two things that have to happen on Sunday are a Miami win over Toronto and an Orlando loss to Milwaukee, with either an Indiana loss to Atlanta (their spot is locked in) or a Philadelphia loss to Brooklyn (with nothing to play for). Not exactly likely, but it’s possible.
One important factor is that with Milwaukee playing Orlando on Sunday – the Bucks lost in Oklahoma City and New York beat Brooklyn – and the No. 2 spot up for grabs, we don’t yet know how those teams will manage that game, or how any other teams will manage any other game, for that matter. Some teams prioritize seeding and/or home court, some team prioritize health, not wanting to deal with any injuries in the final game of the regular season. Again, Orlando has to lose for Miami to have a chance of getting out of the Play-In – that division title all important in multi-team tiebreakers – while Orlando, Indiana and Philadelphia are all possible opponents in the Play-In.