Utah Jazz

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Couper Moorhead

1. The Utah Jazz have made a ton of trades in the past two years as part of this on-the-fly rebuild which has kept them far more competitive than most rebuilding teams, but no matter who is on the roster or healthy they’ve done the Miami thing where they just find ways to stay in games.

Take the first half of this one, for instance. Miami’s offense was working just fine, if a little overly reliant on jumpers with Utah’s length affecting shots at the rim, and with how well they’ve been defending lately any game where they’ve been 10-of-19 from three is one you expect them to be leading by double digits. But there was Utah, keeping their turnovers low and dominated the offensive boards (10 in the first half for a 19-3 second-chance point advantage) to win the possession game (plus-six in shot attempts while also plus-10 in free-throw attempts) and neutralize Miami’s general efficiency. There have been countless games over the past few years where the HEAT have been on the other side of that equation, taking hot shooting from the other side in stride and grinding out enough points to lead by four at the break.

Question at that point was what would be more sustainable – Miami’s shooting or Utah’s work on the glass and ball security. Utah was getting into the paint for their initial shots a little too much for comfort, too, and if more of those drives were completed there might not be a need for so many additional opportunities. And a couple minutes into the third Utah was already up 11, jumpers falling now, which Miami answered with a 6-0 run only to watch Bam Adebayo head to the locker room after a mid-court collision (he would eventually return later in the quarter). A string of Utah turnovers helped from there as the HEAT closed quickly to within four, Jimmy Butler pacing the interior attack as Utah struggled to prevent his post seals. Knotted at 90 after three despite Utah only pulling in a single offensive board during the third quarter.

Zone time in the fourth, Erik Spoelstra once again waiting to employ it and the press with consistency until too deep in the game for another team to gather much rhythm against the change of pace. Keyonte George (31 points on 23 shots) continued to be a pain, balancing pull-up threes and rim attacks to re-take the lead after Miami had appeared to take hold of proceedings. Back-and-forth for a bit until Miami went to Adebayo (23 points on 10-of-15 shootin) in the post for points against both John Collins and Lauri Markkanen. All Butler to close, as the score was never closer than two possessions in the final minutes, Miami taking the victory, 126-120.

2. Miami hasn’t exactly been getting a ton of mileage out of the post of late as their night-to-night offensive packages shift depending on who happens to be available, but tonight may have been a high-water mark as far as volume when it comes to deep post-seals – especially without the services of Kevin Love. Utah wasn’t playing small lineups, either, but whoever they had in the game Butler, and later Jaime Jaquez Jr., was parking them under the rim and getting easy score after easy score. Sometimes it’s obvious when the defense falls asleep on the baseline because someone walks in for an uncontested layup as his defender looks around wondering what happened. Sometimes it’s a little less clear, but the same thing happens on those post seals, a defender turning their head for a split-second which allows someone like Butler to get shoulders and hips in front. Not that Utah could do much with Butler throughout the night in general, but giving up that deep of position is working with an unworkable disadvantage. By the time Butler took over down the stretch, all jumpers and drives – mostly drives – he was already well on his way to a remarkable evening, season-high 37 points on 12-of-19 shooting (3-of-3 from three, even by his own lofty standards.

3.  We haven’t had much cause for singling out Caleb Martin this season, not for any lack of production but his best nights have often just been overshadowed by even better performances from his teammates. Martin has been great since shaking off his early season injury issues, though, in whatever role Spoelstra puts him in, starting or off the bench. Tonight, Martin led through energy, putting in a pair of chasedown blocks earned through full-court sprints behind the play and his 4-of-6 from three finished some of Miami’s best possessions of the night.

It continues to be the press-zone where Martin shines brightest, however, same as its been for a couple of seasons now. The vibes of the game changed dramatically once Spoelstra changed coverages early in the fourth, Martin and Highsmith up top making life difficult for anyone not named George. Nobody will claim this as one of Miami’s best defensive showings of the season after they allowed and Offensive Rating of 126.3, but sometimes all you need are the right plays, the right efforts, the right stretches at the right time and Martin (18 points on 5-of-9 shooting), &nbsp;was involved in just about all of those tonight as he continues to be an indispensably versatile tool in Spoelstra’s toolbox.

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Coup's Takeaways: Jimmy Butler’s Unstoppable Evening Wards Off Utah’s Late Push

1. In the past 10 seasons, the Miami HEAT and Utah Jazz have played a total of 10 games that have ended with a scoring margin of five points or less. Since they’re in opposite conferences, they’ve only faced each other 20 times over that span, meaning for going on a decade there’s been a 50/50 shot that any meeting between these two franchises will end a very close affair in the final minutes.

This one wasn’t looking any different in the early going. Even as Utah led by one point at the half, both sides had a solid argument for being happy that the game was so close. Miami was 5-of-17 from three with 10 turnovers and very little rim pressure, but they were 12-of-20 in the upper paint and mid-range, most of those looks jumpers from Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Utah, meanwhile, was hurting Miami with downhill drives but were struggling from outside, shooting 3-of-21 from deep. Not much rhythm, not much rhyme and certainly not much bobsled time for either side as each had just as much to hang their hat on as to apply a nice cold shoulder to.

Much of the same in the third even with Miami cleaning up their turnovers. With both teams marching to the free-throw line – pump fakes all around – the proceedings were more stop-start than back-and-forth, Miami pulling ahead for their largest lead at six as Adebayo worked his way to the charity stripe until Utah ran off a 10-2 burst capped off by a hard earned three – they were 3-of-27 from three before that one. All tied up going into the fourth, as it should be given the history of the matchup.

Strong floor running minutes from Jamal Cain to open the fourth, the lead trading places seemingly on every possession until Utah jumped ahead by four as clutch minutes were triggered. Utah, behind Kelly Olynyk’s decelerating drives, was getting into the paint so often that Erik Spoelstra temporarily turned to zone defense. The Jazz got a couple threes to fall, rookie Keyonte George (21 points on 10 shots, 5-of-8 from three) shooting with confidence, but the HEAT (their own percentage from deep sinking late) kept getting to the line to stay within reach. Seven-point game with 90 seconds to play, a tough hit on a loose ball sent Haywood Highsmith to the floor and eventually the locker room, and it was a free-throw game from there. It didn’t end a five-point game like so many others, 117-109 the final, but it felt like one.

2. Pretty telling that Spoelstra went to zone for a couple of possessions with under five minutes to play – leading to an Olynyk jumper and a top-key three – when he rarely does so in games he hasn’t already used a ton of zone in. But the zone tends to pop up when the defense isn’t working as intended as far as keeping the ball out of the paint and with Utah shooting 30-of-36 for 60 paint points it’s safe to say that’s the case.

While Utah, mostly George, found their shots late typically any game where a Miami opponent is shooting sub-30 percent from deep ends up a good defensive night, statistically, for the HEAT because of how reliable they are at stopping the ball before it’s gets into dangerous zones. And while a player like Olynyk has a very unique staccato to his downhill game, it’s starting to become a bit more common than the HEAT are used to giving up so many opportunities at the rim. Adebayo is holding the defense together in an All Universe manner, his three steals and three blocks tonight saving just as many scores, but he can’t be everywhere – especially when the cause of the paint points are blow-by drives from the three-point line.

It's early still and Miami will no doubt be focused on cleaning up those miscues – it certainly doesn’t help that they have a different rotation just about every night due to injuries – but for now they haven’t been elite in an area where they’ve been so for years. Utah might have taken this one because George got hot at the end, but they were in the game despite their own poor shooting because of their paint pressure.

3. It looked like Miami was finally starting to get whole regarding their rotation – Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin and Josh Richardson remained out – with the return of Jimmy Butler but Butler would injure his right foot and exit for the evening in the third quarter. The good news is that Herro and Adebayo have been more than willing to soak up extra usage whenever necessary.

Nothing particularly new for Herro (25 points on 22 shots), who enjoyed himself against Utah’s drop coverage – even after moving Rudy Gobert, they’ve spent plenty of time with big centers hanging back – with a shot available around just about any screen that Kris Dunn wasn’t chasing him around. Herro may have cooled down the stretch, but games like this are why Herro so badly wanted to be healthy during last season’s postseason, knowing he could find opportunities against teams using the same scheme.

The story for Adebayo (28 points on 13 shots) meanwhile, was in playing the Butler role as Miami’s designated free-throw earner, setting a new career-high with 20 free-throw attempts and tying his career-high with 14 makes. It’s not longer surprising when Adebayo drives his way into the paint in transition, rises into an automatic jumper off a pocket pass or posts up into a shoulder-fake jumper, but bringing his free-throw rate up after it dipped last season was a piece of low hanging fruit for him to pluck and he’s done so. Sometimes you watch defenders leap at his pump fakes and wonder what they’re doing, but just as it was with Dwyane Wade players are jumping for a reason – it’s a good fake.

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Coup's Takeaways: Keyonte George Gets Hot Late As Miami Drops Choppy Game In Utah

The Miami HEAT are 1-3 this week with a week-later rematch against the Utah Jazz on deck. Here's what we've been noting and noticing:

When Dewayne Dedmon signed with the HEAT last April, he immediately produced like one of the best backup centers in the league. In 13 minutes a game, Dedmon was posting 27 points and 20 rebounds per 100 possessions, with ridiculous 73.5 percent true-shooting. Coaches love to talk about players being a Star In Their Role, no matter how big or small that role is. For 11 brief games last year, Dedmon was effectively a Hall of Famer in his role.

It was going to be nearly impossible for Dedmon to repeat that success over the course of a full season. That’s just how math and probability works. I don’t make the rules. But as long as you weren’t expecting more of the same, there’s nothing to be disappointed in. Dedmon is still of the league’s best backup centers, providing stable rebounding, rim protection and finishing whenever Bam Adebayo needs a breather. And while the statistics have come down to less absurdist levels, Miami’s offense has a On/Off differential of plus-17.5 per 100 when Dedmon is on the floor. So, still absurd.

“Dewayne has given us really productive minutes in those short bursts off the bench at that position,” Erik Spoelstra said. “He’s a big big for us off the bench, which we need.”

We don’t have to discredit Dedmon in any way to note that that level of impact is not all due to him. In some respects he’s simply a marker, his presence on the floor serving to represent the overall effectiveness of the HEAT’s bench lineups. It’s not all about Dedmon, but if we want to keep our field of vision as narrow as possible, it’s about Dedmon and Jimmy Butler.

For two players who had never played together before, Butler and Dedmon had incredible out-of-the-box chemistry. Of Dedmon’s 24 two-point makes last season that did not come off of an offensive rebound, Butler assisted exactly half of them. This year, as they continue to work their two-man game, Butler has assisted on 9-of-10 non-putback scores from Dedmon.

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Butler Serving Dedmon

“Jimmy can make it work with anybody but Dewayne is a really big target on his pick-and-rolls to the rim,” Spoelstra said. “He has really good hands, he has good spatial awareness when he catches it in traffic, he’s able to find the rim. We run a lot of actions with the two of them involved together and they’ve just found a good connection.”

Of the 104 two-man units that played at least 50 minutes last season, the best, by far, was Butler and Dedmon at plus-31.5 points per 100 possessions. This season, they’ve dropped all the way to No. 2 on the team at plus-23.5 per 100, and the pair remains the best offensive grouping at 125.4 points per 100.

If you take your eyes off the ball for a few possessions and just watch P.J. Tucker, it won’t take you long to see the effect he has on the team’s highly-rated rebounding effort (No. 4 in Offensive Rebound Percentage, No. 4 Defensive). Spoelstra recently called him on of the “best box-out guys” in the league, and when Tucker isn’t doing that he’s flying in from the corners to buy the team second-chance possessions out of nowhere. Only Adebayo (26) has grabbed more offensive rebounds than him (24), and only Adebayo has more box-outs as tracked by the league. He’s never the tallest or quickest or bounciest player on the floor, but he’ll put a body on anyone.

That also goes for non-rebounding situations. While Tucker is well known for being one of the most prolific corner-three shooters in league history, he’s equally adept at creating corner opportunities for others. Enter The Hammer.

Popularized by the San Antonio Spurs earlier in the millennium, the hammer action is essentially a weakside backscreen set in the corner that frees both a relocating shooter and opens a passing lane for an attacker as he drives the opposite side of the lane. It looks like this:

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P.J. Tucker Hammer Screens

Tucker typically lurks in the dunker spot or outside the key, threatening to cut into the paint as the defense is drawn toward the ball. More often than not, it’s a feint. He’s waiting for the perfect moment to crush a defender and create an annoyance-free pocket for his suddenly open teammate.

Screen assists, as a statistic, get a bad reputation because of how they’re utilized in certain narratives, but they do offer a glimpse into the functionality of a given player. Unsurprisingly, Adebayo leads the HEAT at 3.3 per game. After that, there’s Tucker at 1.7 and Dedmon at 1.5 each. What’s interesting about this is that Adebayo and Dedmon are both screening to free the attacker, setting upwards of 34 ball screens per 100 possessions. For Tucker, that number is 7.7. Instead, he’s making his living building picket fences made out of brick and iron away from the ball.

"I think P.J.’s one of the best screeners in this modern day era," Spoelstra said. "In terms of his nuance with it, IQ, timing, deception, feel and his variety of different ways to get guys open. It really is remarkable. He can do it in pick-and-rolls, off-ball, in hammer screens, a lot of things that you can’t really teach. You have to have such a superior level of mind and IQ for the timing of those kind of screens. It’s been really fun to see that part of his genius off the ball, he’s as good as anyone I’ve seen."

You might read this section and think nothing of it now, but there’s a very good chance that someone on the HEAT is going to his a huge shot next postseason. And it’ll only be when you rewatch that play that you’ll notice who moved the bodies around to make it happen.

If there’s a statistical curiosity that’s worth keeping an eye on over the coming months it’s whatever is going on with Miami’s early-season halfcourt numbers. We have a few options that allow us to parse out halfcourt-only data but to use a site that is publicly available (though behind a subscription) we’ll use CleaningTheGlass.com, which defines halfcourt as:

“Anything that occurs when all 10 players are in the scoring half of the court and set in a normal guarding position.”

Still with me? Let’s start with the offense, where Miami is No. 4 in Offensive Rating (111.3 per 100 possessions) but No. 16 in halfcourt points-per-play. That per-play modifier is important because it represents the gap between those two rankings. Per-play doesn’t include offensive rebounds since every second-chance is a new play, so between Miami’s rebounding and their prowess in selective transition opportunities, that’s how their overall attack is still ranked so highly.

Defensively, there’s a similar effect at play. Miami is ranked No. 7 in Defensive Rating, but No. 15 in halfcourt points-per-play allowed, again the difference in the two is made up with the elite defensive rebounding – the HEAT earning more plays than the other team – and transition defense. This is all despite Miami being No. 1 in the NBA in opponent field-goal percentage on all shots outside of the paint – they allow more threes as a percentage of total shots given up than anyone in the league, as a side effect of their scheme – and jumpers are notoriously difficult to control over time.

In light of the wild variance in jumpers that we’ve seen so far, there just isn’t enough information to get a full grasp of the HEAT’s defense. It’s elite on paper, and it sure looks elite on film, but if there’s any truth to be found in the halfcourt ranking those kernels might be enough to keep them out of the Top 5.

What’s so interesting about the offense is that outside of The Kyle Lowry Effect, many of the changes on that end were made, seemingly, in the interest of improving the team as a postseason offense, where everything slows down and the halfcourt is crucial. All those mismatches the HEAT have been hunting in the early going? That’s playoff basketball.

In the 18 years since 2003-04, which is as far back as the data goes for CleaningTheGlass, 23 of the 36 teams that made the NBA Finals had a halfcourt ranking inside of the Top 5. Only six teams were outside the Top 10 – one this decade, the 2019-20 Los Angeles Lakers – and each of those six was a Top 5 team in Defensive Rating, among them the vaunted Detroit Pistons units of 2003-04 and 2004-05.

We’re 12 games in, so all of this is more observational than exclusionary. If the HEAT stayed exactly as they are today, with a tiny boost defensively that would come from simply not being in the midst of a losing stretch, there’s precedent for a team with that profile for making the Finals. But it is the path less traveled, and it remains an unusual dossier in terms of the way the HEAT get to who they are. Their identity is both somewhat obvious and, as becomes apparent the deeper you dig, somewhat murky. Part of the fun of the season is uncovering answers in the fog.

When asked about his point guard’s prowess in setting screens to free up others, Erik Spolestra had this to say:

“It’s the subtle nuances of deception, bursting to screens, creating some separation and the unpredictability of his angles that makes him a creative screener. He’s always been a guy that gets people open. In that regard he reminds me, in a different way because the game is different, of John Stockton. John Stockton used to be a brilliant screener to get guys open. Kyle’s been that kind of screener over the course of his career.”

"To be compared to a guy like John Stockton is incredible," Lowry said.

Of the 67 players classified as point guards, per their typical defensive matchups, by Second Spectrum, Lowry has set the second most ball screens at 48, trailing only Brooklyn’s Patty Mills. Of those 47 picks, only three of them have resulted in the ball getting back to Lowry for a shot, drawn foul or turnovers (a used possession). In other words, Lowry’s screens are truly and almost entirely geared toward getting his teammates open, as is often the case with Herro, or a mismatch, as he does for Butler.

The inverted pick-and-roll between Lowry and Adebayo has been limited, so far, but it has been used and thus, clearly an option.

-As we discussed last week, the HEAT aren’t actually scoring that much more early in the shot clock because they’ve essentially replaced their pick-six turnovers from last year with Lowry’s hit-ahead passing. A fine trade overall, but it does speak to a larger shift in that Miami is only middle of the pack this season in forcing turnovers after finishing No. 3 a season ago. A large part of that is the lack of blitzing they’ve done in pick-and-roll compared to a year ago. When trailing Denver by double digits on Monday, Spoelstra called in the more aggressive strategy in an apparent effort to manufacture some turnovers – their 13 blitzes in that game were the most this season outside of Dallas, against whom you practically have to put two on the ball with Luka Doncic. Miami hasn’t been as aggressive this year, but they’ll clearly dial things up when required.

-By that same token Spoelstra called in 27  zone possessions – Miami had only used three total prior – on the second night of a back-to-back in Los Angeles last night.

-You’re forgiven if your brain told you that you were watching Bam Adebayo leaping for a crucial putback dunk late against the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday when it was, in fact, 36-year old P.J. Tucker. You’re also forgiven for wondering when the last time Tucker, not exactly known for skywalking, dunked the ball. The answer to that little bit of trivia is May 8, 2019, during the Western Conference Semifinals against the Golden State Warriors. Was that three seasons ago? Four? Five? Who knows at this point. Time is a flat circle.

-Tyler Herro has taken 55 pull-up jumpers this season, fifth-most in the league. That’s more than Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Trae Young and Steph Curry. The Leader in the clubhouse is Kevin Durant (90 attempts). Herro’s effective field-goal percentage on those shots, as of today, is 44.5.

-I remain nonplussed about Duncan Robinson’s shooting, which we’ve discussed at length so I’ll just add two more points. If you want to hold Robinson to a standard, using his 2020-21 season (8.5 3ptFGA/g at 40.8 percent) might make more sense than his 2019-20 (44.6 percent, same attempts). That’s not to say Robinson can’t hit his earlier marks again, but both he and Spoelstra have commented in the past that it took a while that season for the league to adjust to a surprise All-World shooter. Those consistently open and unbothered looks, they’ve said, are never coming back.

Secondly, since the ol’ timeline appears to be kicking the rotation-change-mobile into high-gear after the losses in L.A., it should be reiterated that a major part of why Robinson is so important to the HEAT is the volume at which he can get his shots – off a rare set of movement skills – which contributes to spacing just as much as percentages. Miami’s starting lineup needs that volume, given it’s lack of true shooters, and the best-case scenario for everyone is things working in the current situation. After the Clippers loss Spoelstra again reiterated his confidence-level in Robinson.

“It’s a tough league. You more often than not have to manage disappointment of not playing up to standards that you have. That’s not exclusive to Duncan. You have to manage those emotions and stay the course. He has uncommon persistence. He’ll break through. I have no doubt about that. His teammates the same way. The staff, the same way. You just have to stay the course.”

-Every game that Robinson plays with a made three extends his franchise record for consecutive games played with a triple. Decently cool, despite everything else.

-Lowry’s 22-point fourth quarter against the Clippers tied his career-high for any quarter, one that he set well back in 2015. His top four single-quarter scoring efforts have all come in the final period.

-Adebayo’s 19-point first quarter against the Clippers was a career-high for any quarter, as was his 24-point first half for any half. He started drawing doubles in the second half, with the Clippers planting their center as available paint help while Nic Batum took some of the primary responsibility, that limited his ability to force the issue on offense, but drawing doubles is the next step in his offensive evolution.

Utah Jazz

Coup's Takeaways: Jimmy Butler’s Unstoppable Evening Wards Off Utah’s Late Push

Coup's Takeaways: Keyonte George Gets Hot Late As Miami Drops Choppy Game In Utah

Coup's Notebook Vol. 3: Jimmy Butler And The Dedmon, The Hammer, Kyle "John Stockton" Lowry, Half(Court) Steppin' And More