Tyrese Haliburton

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Couper Moorhead

1. You’d be hard pressed to find regular season games with much more on the line than this one, the tiebreaker – on top of the loss column differential – with Indiana possibly meaning the difference between avoiding the Play-In Tournament and going on the road in the 7-8 matchup.

Not the best start on Miami’s side but a normal, manageable one considering they missed their first seven threes, with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo keeping things close enough in one-on-one situations as Indiana elected not to send help – getting Pascal Siakam into some early foul trouble in the process. But as those shots continued to miss the Pacers kept running through their progressions of what’s been one of the best offenses in the league, manufacturing a strong balance of inside and out, fast and slow. Tyrese Haliburton punished a couple of switches early, which led to Miami putting two on the ball to avoid the switch and Indiana working through 4-on-3 situations. The press-zone from the bench unit didn’t have the usual effect, either, as Indiana didn’t blink at the change-of-pace, T.J. McConnell picking up where he left off in December by failing to demonstrate an understanding of how to miss a shot (14 points, 7-of-8 shooting in the first half). Soon the lead stretched to double digits, and eventually north of 20, the halftime difference 17 thanks to an Adebayo three just before the clock expired, Indiana running an Offensive Rating of 131.3 through two quarters despite making just 5-of-17 from the arc themselves.

Some good momentum to start the third, more Butler and Adebayo willing it on the downhill attack, before back-to-back Pacers threes pushed it back to 18. Then a quick burst from Nikola Jovic got it back to 11, a Butler turnaround making it nine as Indiana worked up against the shot clock. Still, the Pacers played keep away, Obi Toppin adding consecutive triples to push it again back to 14. With McConnell adding another couple of makes without misses, Miami down 13, still well within earshot, going into the fourth.

More McConnell to open the fourth, consecutive scores on consecutive rim cuts, and the deficit was back to 15. Some good work from Adebayo to get it back to 10 when Butler (27 points on 16 shots) returned from the bench, the slower pace of play starting to favor Miami. Decent break for Miami when Jovic was fouled on a desperation three against the shot clock with just under six to play, the lead down to seven as a result. Clutch game, Jovic hitting a huge corner three, as Myles Turner misses a couple threes himself. Down to two on a Caleb Martin jumper, but back to six a couple possessions later. Miami still alive, Herro to the free-throw line down five for three with 23 seconds left on a Siakam foul – all three falling. Turner to the line after that, all tense everything, and he makes both. But Herro again, hitting an incredibly tough three to get it back to one. Nesmith to the line, he makes both. Down three, Erik Spoelstra takes Miami’s last timeout with 6.6 seconds to play. With Herro (21 points on 12 shots) at the line going for an intentional miss, after Indiana fouled, a lane violation was called and that was that. Dramatic, suspenseful and in the end, a 117-115 loss for Miami as the Pacers pick up the all-important tiebreaker.

2. What might become lost in the shuffle a bit tonight is that this may have been the best, or at least most impactful, game of Nikola Jovic’s career. Yes, he scored 18 points on 10 shots, including that late corner three which changed the shape of the game until the Pacers found a few late scores, but this goes beyond anything in the box score. It’s the fact that Spoelstra used Jovic down the stretch of this game, with so much on the line, and not just as a floor spacer, that should be most telling. Not only was Jovic involved in much of Miami’s late-game offense – that he was running a two-man game with Butler was a surprise, even if it was because Tyrese Haliburton was his defender and Miami was looking for the switch – including some important late inbounds and as a designated wing passer on an after-timeout set going for a Butler backdoor lob, but he was also quite involved in the defense. Jovic was burned by a couple of Haliburton switches early on, which led to Spoelstra toggling into show-and-go mode to avoid the switch that got Indiana’s halfcourt offense going a bit too much downhill, but in the second half they went back to switching and Jovic held up well, moving his feet and staying in front. Miami’s gapping defense, all those defenders shrinking into the driving lanes, had a lot to do with it, but Jovic still had to do his job and Haliburton genuinely didn’t seem to have much of a plan, settling for some tough jumpers.

We still don’t know what Miami’s postseason – or play-in – rotation is going to look like, but Jovic hasn’t played himself out of the starting lineup by any means and games like this, with clear trust from Spoelstra, imply that he’s doing enough to earn himself important opportunities. These are the games you remember on the long path that is Miami’s player development track, and it might be one we reference many times down the line.

3. So, the standings. This was the big one. Not only is Miami now a game back in the loss column to Indiana – two back in the win column due simply to the Pacers having played more games – they don’t have the tiebreaker against the Pacers which means they’re effectively two back in the loss column with four games to play. However you want to break down the various schedules remaining, the HEAT no longer control their own destiny for getting out of the Play-In Tournament after coming into this week with their hands on the wheel, beating New York and Houston but losing to the two teams in the race for the No. 6 seed with them.

Due to that Thursday loss to Philadelphia, Miami is now tied with the 76ers, who are playing in San Antonio as of this writing. Should the 76ers win that game, Miami will drop down to the No. 8 seed. They’re still tied with the 76ers in the loss column, and own the tiebreaker for the moment due to a one-game advantage in conference record, so they still have some say over things – the No. 8 goes on the road to face No. 7 in the Play-In – no matter what Indiana does, but the coming back-to-back against Atlanta and Dallas looms large.

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Coup's Takeaways : Miami's Late Push Falls Short As Indiana Takes Season Tiebreaker

The Miami HEAT are 11-9, No. 7 in the Eastern Conference with a Net Raing of +1.3, No. 14 in the league. With this being In-Season Tournament week Miami only has two games in the next eight days, so this should be one of the quieter periods of the year. Here’s what we’ve been noting and noticing.

There are many unusual things about Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s game. His footwork. His poise. The way he can so casually finish in the paint through contact, even with a smooth double-clutch over a shotblocker. The fact that he’s shooting 39 percent from three is remarkable given his college numbers – even if they were better than they looked when you separated out catch-and-shoot opportunities. Hitting on a player with the No. 18 pick is a massive boon for a franchise living well within the luxury tax.

One of the items that has been most interesting in these early weeks is Jaquez Jr.’s post delivery system. It’s not that it wasn’t his game at UCLA. It’s that his game from UCLA has so thoroughly translated to the pros. Among the 43 players who have used at least 20 post-ups this season, Jaquez Jr. is second at an absurd 1.75 points-per-post (including assist opportunities), trailing only Kristaps Porzingis’ 1.77 on 32 opportunities.

What’s more, there’s a specific time for Jaquez post-ups. Ready to get annoyingly granular? In the first two minutes of the fourth quarter – when Jimmy Butler is typically resting on the bench, and with Tyler Herro out the bench hasn’t had its typical ballhandlers – Jaquez Jr. is tied for second-most post-ups with four, trailing only Jonathan Kuminga’s five. Jaquez Jr. should be in the lead with six, but the two that came early in the fourth Saturday against Indiana, despite being catches with his back to the basket, were logged as isolations.

On the first, Jaquez Jr. patiently waits for Duncan Robinson to clear the lane after a cut before he goes to work. He spins baseline, keeping his dribble alive to he can spin back toward middle to draw a foul.

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Notebook 60: Jaime Post 1

Now here’s where things got interesting. On the very next possession, on the other side of the court, Jaquez Jr. gets the ball in similar position. He again waits for the geography of the floor to solidify, but this time Indiana brings help with T.J. McConnell sliding over. Jaquez Jr. calmly takes the pressure, waits for Orlando Robinson to cut middle and makes the simple play.

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Notebook 60: Jaime Post 2

Nothing complicated, but we often talk about just how precious every single instance of drawing two defenders to the ball is in Miami and for a rookie wing to do so with the semi-lost Shinobi art of the post-up is noteworthy to say the least.

More on Jaquez Jr. coming soon, but in the meantime keep an eye on those first two minutes of the fourth quarter, at least while Herro is out. That’s been Jaime Time.

The third greatest respect a coach can give to an opposing guard is to refuse to give them the switches that they want. After Tyrese Haliburton spent most of the first half on Thursday torching both Miami’s drop coverages and their switches – Haliburton was wise enough to find another switch when he didn’t like the initial matchup – Erik Spoelstra went to the usual show-and-recover scheme to stall the ball without giving up a disadvantage.

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Notebook 60: The Third Respect

This was a little hit or miss overall, as Haliburton still had time to read the coverage and comfortably find his rolling big man, leading to multiple short roll finds of Obi Toppin along the baseline.

The second greatest respect a coach can give to an opposing guard is to actively try and get the ball out of their hands, whether via a trap, a double or a hard blitz off a screen. Rather than showing out relatively flat on Haliburton as he did in the third quarter, later Kevin Love pushed up and trapped him along the sideline with Jimmy Butler.

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Notebook 60: The Second Respect

The first greatest respect a coach can give to an opposing guard it to effectively say, ‘Once you give up the ball, you aren’t getting it back.’ And at various points in the second half, when it was appropriate, you could find HEAT defenders well past the three-point line stuck to Haliburton.

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Notebook 60: The First Respect

Coaches will tell you about that respect, too.

“Haliburton reads the scheme and coverage probably as well as any player in this league,” Spoelstra said Thursday night. “He can process extremely fast and then find the weakness in the coverage. A lot of that was his assertiveness getting into the gaps. He was shooting that pocket three in between the scheme or just driving into the lane. He’s really improved and that put us in a lot of situations where we had to be physical, be disruptive and then utilize brain speed to scramble through several schemes. But that’s what great players force you to do.”

Then again, scoring 44 points on 28 shots with 10 assists is going to siphon respect out of most anyone. Spoelstra has long been selective about his praise – you can tell when he’s finding something nice to say versus echoing longer, schematic conversations he’s presumably had behind closed doors – and the way he spoke of Haliburton on Thursday wasn’t too short of the respect he put into words about Jalen Brunson following that Second Round series last year.

When you watch a lot of games one of the more fun things to track are the type of possessions that force coaches to take an immediate timeout. We’re not talking about plays that cap off an 8-0 or 10-2 run that would spur any coach to stop the game. This is about the plays that create an immediate reaction – usually they are defensive possessions that violate the principles of a given scheme. For Erik Spoelstra, those timeouts will come after one or two layups allowed in succession, or a particularly egregious stretch of transition defense.

For Pacers coach Rick Carlisle, such a possession happened late in the first quarter on Saturday. After Isaiah Jackson hit the second of his free-throws in a four-point game, Kevin Love whipped an outlet past past halfcourt to Caleb Martin, who jogged in for a layup.

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Notebook 60: World's Fastest Score

Two things to notice here. First, Jimmy Butler was already the man back as he generally does on free-throws to establish early post position. The help man, then, was technically there, he just never helped. Second, Carlisle was settled into his seat on the bench and clearly not intending to call a timeout at that point having just come off a dead-ball situation. The defensive breakdown was so great – to be clear, Miami had some pretty poor defensive possessions themselves in the two-game Indiana series – he jumped up to interrupt play.

Tracking this sort of thing is not an exact science given how Second Spectrum’s filters work, but as best we can tell this was the first score this season, off a made free-throw, that took four seconds or less – excluding situations where the free-throw was followed up by a timeout, or the point guard rolled the ball up to halfcourt to keep the clock from starting. So, after a free throw at least, here’s your current league leader for fastest score of the year. Such are the gifts of Love’s outlet passes.

If Duncan Robinson and Bam Adebayo are on the floor together, they are going to run handoffs. Even as Robinson’s place in the rotation has been in flux after his first two breakout seasons, adjusted per 100 possessions the pair have never used fewer than eight handoffs in their minutes. Even though the volume is a tick lower this season as Robinson runs more direct pick-and-rolls, and the efficiency (1.09 points per possession) isn’t at the heights of 2019-20 (1.29 points-per), it has always been one of Miami’s most consistent actions for one specific reason – it’s their best way of drawing two defenders to the ball.

That’s become a little less true as time goes on as teams adjust their scouting reports, blitzing Tyler Herro, doubling Jimmy Butler and committing extra defenders to Adebayo’s rolls into the paint, but all of that tends to be opponent specific. In the Finals, the handoff was Miami’s only action that truly gave the Nuggets fits. When Robinson is healthy and in rhythm, there’s no quicker way to bend the defense out of shape than have him fly around an Adebayo handoff.

In turn, that’s how Miami gets Adebayo going downhill – Robinson has improved dramatically as a read-and-react playmaker able to automatically hit the pocket pass – where he can create.

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Notebook 60: Ol' Reliable Handoff

Miami has never quite been able to fully realize Adebayo’s potential as a short-roll playmaker largely due to personnel, lineup fit and spacing inconsistencies – while Herro and Kyle Lowry will draw extra attention off screens when they’re hot, only a select few players draw that coverage every night and defenders will still cheat off some of Miami’s wings – and even though he short rolls twice as often as he did even two years ago, those lead to upper paint jumpers far more often than they do assist opportunities. Adebayo passes out of the short roll 1.6 times per 100 possessions as compared to 1.2 times per 100 in 2021-22, though the numbers are very good when it does happen and small gains are meaningful in that category, as Drew Eubanks, playing in Portland with Damian Lillard, at 2.9 short-roll passes per 100 was the highest rate last season.

Just as they’ve been in the past three seasons, Miami is once again Top 7 (Top 5 before Saturday’s game) in opponent turnover rate, generating giveaways 15.6 percent of the time. They’re No. 16 – No. 10 before Saturday – in Defensive Rating largely because of that, which is by design. Erik Spoelstra has built a disruptive scheme with loads of help and pressure. They should be forcing turnovers.

Miami also needs to be. If you remove all turnover possessions from their Defensive Rating, thus leaving you with the other two natural conclusions to a possession in shots and fouls, the HEAT are allowing 1.34 points-per-possession – the 1 to 30 range being 1.22 to 1.39 – which ranks No. 23 in the league. Again, this is generally consistent with the past few seasons so it’s not particularly alarming given the success this system has had. When you allow the fourth-most threes in the league, there’s going to be some good-luck bad-luck variance. Helping and playing the passing lanes is inherently a high-risk, high-reward prospect, with the reward being not just stops on one end but run outs and transition chances on the other.

The slight change we’ve seen this season, so far at least, is that opposing teams are getting to the rim a little more often than usual, up to 30.8 percent (Rank 10) of their total attempts, up from 29 percent (Rank 4) a season ago. That might not seem like much of a different, but considering those are shots that teams are making over 70 percent of the time even one percentage point increase can mean allowing another point and a half a night. And this is in a season where teams are shooting four percent fewer shots at the rim with Adebayo, still having one of his best individual rim protecting seasons (55.8 percent allowed), on the floor.

Long way to go with all of this, still. Early season can sometimes be skewed by the opponents you’ve been playing. Just worth keeping an eye on those rim numbers. Giving up threes at a high-volume is built into Miami’s defensive style, which is inducing the appropriate number of turnovers even though they’re strangely down at No. 23 in pick-six turnovers. Rim attempts, however, are not part of the design, though that’s largely an issue with non-Adebayo minutes.

-The 10 and-ones Miami allowed to Indiana on Thursday night are tied for the most an NBA team has given up in a single game in the past 10 seasons.

-After Thursday’s game, Indiana’s 36 paint field goals were tied for the most Miami had allowed in the last 10 seasons. Indiana then made 37 shots in the paint on Saturday.

-Thursday’s contest with Indiana was also the ninth time in the Jimmy Butler era that Miami had a free-throw rate (free-throws per field goal attempted) greater than .520.

-Going into Saturday’s match, Miami was 98-1 in games in which they posted an Offensive Rating of 129 or better. Logical, given that the HEAT have typically been a very good defensive team. An elite offensive game has almost always been an insta-win. The previous loss came last March to the Knicks when Julius Randle elastico’d the ball to himself for a fading game-winning three. The HEAT are now 98-2 in those games.

-Indiana’s Offensive Rating of 144.5, with both Bam Adebayo and Tyrese Haliburton sitting, is the third highest ever allowed by the HEAT franchise, with previous highs of 145.1 coming against Cleveland in 1991 and 149.4 last March to Brooklyn

-Kyle Lowry currently has the highest effective-field goal (61.2) and true-shooting (63.5) percentages combined with the lowest usage rate (13.5) of his career.

-After two consecutive nights with a GameScore above 26, via basketball-reference.com, this is Jimmy Butler’s 15th such streak of his HEAT tenure and tied for the third longest. His longest streak of 26+ games is seven, back in 2021, and last March he had one of six. For reference, the longest streak in the postseason, since 1983, is LeBron James in 2008 with a run of eight games, while Nikola Jokic had a run of six during the postseason last year. Michael Jordan’s longest playoff streak was also six.

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Coup’s Notebook Vol. 60: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Delivers The Mail, Erik Spoelstra Shows His Respect, The World’s Fastest Possession, Duncan Robinson Bends The Floor And Miami’s Defense By Design

1. You knew the Pacers – to this point posting one of the best Offensive Ratings of all time – were going to come to Miami ready to run. With Tyrese Haliburton leading the way, and then some, speed and efficiency is Indiana’s entire identity, even if it costs them a bit on the defensive end.

Even knowing what was coming, though, sometimes you need to see it, to feel it, to believe it. What the Pacers were doing in the first half, jumping ahead 15-4 early and holding a lead around 10 through two quarter while they sometimes scored in seven seconds or less, was unlike anything the HEAT have seen before this season. Whether there was an adjustment period or not – it would be understandable if there was, but only the team will be able to speak to that postgame – the quickness with which Haliburton (28 points in the first half on 14 shots) had Indiana moving, both in the open floor and in the half-court, was getting the Pacers into the heart of the paint with regularity. By the break it was 73-64, with the Pacers’ Offensive Rating of 146, with 8-of-8 shooting at the rim, topping an excellent-on-any-other-night 128 from the HEAT. Miami also lost Bam Adebayo for the game to a hip injury in the second quarter, with Thomas Bryant replacing him in the starting lineup in the third.

Eight straight from Kyle Lowry to open the half helped matters to get within two as Jimmy Butler went into takeover mode, parading himself to the foul line through contact, but the Pacers could not be slowed unless they were missing from three. The lead stayed at 10. At one point midway through the third, Haliburton had been playing so well that Duncan Robinson was essentially playing full ball denial on Indiana’s point guard even as Haliburton stood within a few feet of the half-court line. A regular supply of free-throws, with Indiana missing a handful of their own, kept things well within a possession or two – one headed into the fourth – as Butler put up 16 points in the third.

As the Pacers continued to miss some freebies (21-of-32 at the line), Miami made their push for their first lead with Butler getting some rest early in the fourth, Jaime Jaquez Jr. getting to the paint for two – followed by a few more – and Robinson draining a wide, wide open three. All those easy scores Indiana was generating in the first half dried up as Miami packed the paint and blitzed the ball out of Haliburton’s (44 points on 15-of-28 shooting to go with 10 assists) hands as Butler hounded him one-on-one, Indiana couldn’t counter from three (11-of-43, with not a single make from their bench) and the paint remained wide open for the HEAT.

The Pacers might have come into this one as the offensive machine, looking every bit the part through the first three quarters, but it was Miami, winning just as high scoring as expected at 142-132, that sustained their own attack behind a veteran All-Star, a remarkable rookie and some good old-fashioned pressure.

2. On any normal night, especially one where you lose Adebayo in the first half, the game ball goes to Butler (36 points on 18 shots, 18-of-20 from the free-throw line) just for doing Butler things as he settled the game down by drawing so many fouls. But this was not a normal night for not a normal rookie.

While Erik Spoelstra probably decided the outcome of the game with his decision to put two on Haliburton – with Butler refusing to allow the switch as much as possible – in the fourth quarter, a coverage Indiana’s other players could not consistently take advantage of – their shot quality on threes eroded the longer Miami stretched their lead – it was Jaquez Jr., with his combination of cunning, guile and footwork, who pushed Miami in front during that early-fourth period without Butler. Whether it was getting behind unsuspecting Indiana weakside defenders for cuts or calmly eating up space until his defender had the rim right over his head, everyone who watched this game will remember it for Jaquez Jr. – stealing the night from both Butler and Haliburton, punctuating it with a fast-break alley-oop from Josh Richardson – down the stretch.

For a player who was taken outside of the lottery without much public fanfare outside of Miami, Jaquez Jr. (24 points on 8-of-13 shooting) has wasted little time making a name for himself and earning respect around the league. One suspects he won’t be getting as much single coverage for long.

3. The other side of this matchup is that Indiana isn’t exactly known for their defense. Even though Miami had a handful of clunky possessions go their way, they were still generally able to get into the paint whenever they wanted. Knowing this, then, they appeared to be passing up some threes – open, but still a higher variance play than a layup or free-throws – in order to take advantage of the advantage staring them in the face.

It's an interesting gambit up against such a potent offense, but a logical one. Until the other team proves they can stop the ball one-on-one, stop fouling or at least help from the right angles, don’t let them off the hook. The HEAT only took 21 threes in this one, but the other side of the coin was 45 free-throws – some from Indiana extending the game down the stretch – while hitting 35-of-57 in the paint, including 15-of-21 at the rim and 20-of-36 in the upper paint, for 70 total paint points. When you’re mauling the other team inside like that, beating defenders one-on-one with regularity and drawing foul after foul, then who needs threes?

Tyrese Haliburton

Coup's Takeaways : Miami's Late Push Falls Short As Indiana Takes Season Tiebreaker

Coup’s Notebook Vol. 60: Jaime Jaquez Jr. Delivers The Mail, Erik Spoelstra Shows His Respect, The World’s Fastest Possession, Duncan Robinson Bends The Floor And Miami’s Defense By Design

Coup's Takeaways: Jaquez Jr. And Butler Take Down Haliburton, High-Powered Pacers In Fourth Quarter