1. You’d be hard pressed to find regular season games with much more on the line than this one, the tiebreaker – on top of the loss column differential – with Indiana possibly meaning the difference between avoiding the Play-In Tournament and going on the road in the 7-8 matchup.
Not the best start on Miami’s side but a normal, manageable one considering they missed their first seven threes, with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo keeping things close enough in one-on-one situations as Indiana elected not to send help – getting Pascal Siakam into some early foul trouble in the process. But as those shots continued to miss the Pacers kept running through their progressions of what’s been one of the best offenses in the league, manufacturing a strong balance of inside and out, fast and slow. Tyrese Haliburton punished a couple of switches early, which led to Miami putting two on the ball to avoid the switch and Indiana working through 4-on-3 situations. The press-zone from the bench unit didn’t have the usual effect, either, as Indiana didn’t blink at the change-of-pace, T.J. McConnell picking up where he left off in December by failing to demonstrate an understanding of how to miss a shot (14 points, 7-of-8 shooting in the first half). Soon the lead stretched to double digits, and eventually north of 20, the halftime difference 17 thanks to an Adebayo three just before the clock expired, Indiana running an Offensive Rating of 131.3 through two quarters despite making just 5-of-17 from the arc themselves.
Some good momentum to start the third, more Butler and Adebayo willing it on the downhill attack, before back-to-back Pacers threes pushed it back to 18. Then a quick burst from Nikola Jovic got it back to 11, a Butler turnaround making it nine as Indiana worked up against the shot clock. Still, the Pacers played keep away, Obi Toppin adding consecutive triples to push it again back to 14. With McConnell adding another couple of makes without misses, Miami down 13, still well within earshot, going into the fourth.
More McConnell to open the fourth, consecutive scores on consecutive rim cuts, and the deficit was back to 15. Some good work from Adebayo to get it back to 10 when Butler (27 points on 16 shots) returned from the bench, the slower pace of play starting to favor Miami. Decent break for Miami when Jovic was fouled on a desperation three against the shot clock with just under six to play, the lead down to seven as a result. Clutch game, Jovic hitting a huge corner three, as Myles Turner misses a couple threes himself. Down to two on a Caleb Martin jumper, but back to six a couple possessions later. Miami still alive, Herro to the free-throw line down five for three with 23 seconds left on a Siakam foul – all three falling. Turner to the line after that, all tense everything, and he makes both. But Herro again, hitting an incredibly tough three to get it back to one. Nesmith to the line, he makes both. Down three, Erik Spoelstra takes Miami’s last timeout with 6.6 seconds to play. With Herro (21 points on 12 shots) at the line going for an intentional miss, after Indiana fouled, a lane violation was called and that was that. Dramatic, suspenseful and in the end, a 117-115 loss for Miami as the Pacers pick up the all-important tiebreaker.
2. What might become lost in the shuffle a bit tonight is that this may have been the best, or at least most impactful, game of Nikola Jovic’s career. Yes, he scored 18 points on 10 shots, including that late corner three which changed the shape of the game until the Pacers found a few late scores, but this goes beyond anything in the box score. It’s the fact that Spoelstra used Jovic down the stretch of this game, with so much on the line, and not just as a floor spacer, that should be most telling. Not only was Jovic involved in much of Miami’s late-game offense – that he was running a two-man game with Butler was a surprise, even if it was because Tyrese Haliburton was his defender and Miami was looking for the switch – including some important late inbounds and as a designated wing passer on an after-timeout set going for a Butler backdoor lob, but he was also quite involved in the defense. Jovic was burned by a couple of Haliburton switches early on, which led to Spoelstra toggling into show-and-go mode to avoid the switch that got Indiana’s halfcourt offense going a bit too much downhill, but in the second half they went back to switching and Jovic held up well, moving his feet and staying in front. Miami’s gapping defense, all those defenders shrinking into the driving lanes, had a lot to do with it, but Jovic still had to do his job and Haliburton genuinely didn’t seem to have much of a plan, settling for some tough jumpers.
We still don’t know what Miami’s postseason – or play-in – rotation is going to look like, but Jovic hasn’t played himself out of the starting lineup by any means and games like this, with clear trust from Spoelstra, imply that he’s doing enough to earn himself important opportunities. These are the games you remember on the long path that is Miami’s player development track, and it might be one we reference many times down the line.
3. So, the standings. This was the big one. Not only is Miami now a game back in the loss column to Indiana – two back in the win column due simply to the Pacers having played more games – they don’t have the tiebreaker against the Pacers which means they’re effectively two back in the loss column with four games to play. However you want to break down the various schedules remaining, the HEAT no longer control their own destiny for getting out of the Play-In Tournament after coming into this week with their hands on the wheel, beating New York and Houston but losing to the two teams in the race for the No. 6 seed with them.
Due to that Thursday loss to Philadelphia, Miami is now tied with the 76ers, who are playing in San Antonio as of this writing. Should the 76ers win that game, Miami will drop down to the No. 8 seed. They’re still tied with the 76ers in the loss column, and own the tiebreaker for the moment due to a one-game advantage in conference record, so they still have some say over things – the No. 8 goes on the road to face No. 7 in the Play-In – no matter what Indiana does, but the coming back-to-back against Atlanta and Dallas looms large.