The Miami HEAT are 37-31, No. 8 in the Eastern Conference with a Net Rating of +0.5, No. 18 in the league. They finish up their road trip Wednesday in Cleveland before heading back home for four. With just a few weeks left in the regular season, here’s what we’ve been noting and noticing.
TOPSIDER
After Bam Adebayo hit a three in his second consecutive game on Friday in Detroit, Erik Spoelstra had this to say about the long gestating prospect of Adebayo incorporating more triples into his arsenal.
“I had this discussion with him during the summer when he was working on his corner three. I was cool with that, I want him to work on the three, but I told him the three that would be more available would be the one at the top. That’s where he ends up being more often. The spacing, it doesn’t really make sense for our roster for him to be in the corner.”
Sure enough, one game later with Miami finishing up a two-game series with Detroit, Adebayo caught the ball in the exact same spot as his previous two threes with the game on the line, made possible in part by Cade Cunningham making the curious decision to shoot a stepback three with nine seconds on the clock in a tie game. Adebayo hit the shot, of course, saving Miami from what would have been a very tough loss and handing NBA content creators the most dramatic moment of the day until Kyrie Irving hit a left-handed baby hook over Nikola Jokic from the free-throw line about an hour later.
Drama aside, the buzzer-beating game winner – No. 17 in HEAT franchise history and the second of Adebayo’s career after he hit a baseline jumper to sink the Brooklyn Nets back in 2021 – fit right into what Spoelstra was talking about. For many centers over the past decade it has made sense for them to begin stretching their games out to the corners. It’s a shorter shot and a natural progression for all those big men who once would have been pick-and-pop mid-range specialists. Even Chris Bosh spent a decent amount of time in the corners back in those days, albeit with some above-the-break game-winners to his own name, just to make space for LeBron James and Dwyane Wade to get downhill.
Adebayo isn’t just a center on offense, though, he’s a hub. There’s rarely ever a reason for him to be in the corner, and thus away from the ball, because Miami runs just about everything through him – barring Jimmy Butler post-ups – in some form or fashion, be it in pick-and-rolls or handoffs or post-ups. Those things don’t happen in the corners. In the past three seasons, Adebayo hasn’t attempted a single corner three (he’s 12-of-79 on all attempts in his career, but there are quite a few heaves and last-second shots mixed in). In the way that Miami has tried to replicate Adebayo’s actions with their backup centers at times, players like Meyers Leonard and Dewayne Dedmon rarely shot out of the corners, either, most of their attempts coming as they trailed in from the top or in pick-and-pops. Even Kelly Olynyk and Kevin Love, by far the highest volume shooting big men Miami has had in the past five seasons, take fewer than 20 percent of their threes out of the corners. That’s just not where Spoelstra wants his centers, especially those with on-ball skills.
Of course as we say this Adebayo hit a corner three Monday night against Philadelphia – stretching his streak to five straight makes in all – but that was a in a semi-transition situation where the play naturally pushed Adebayo into the spot. Sure enough, two quarters later Paul Reed was still backing off Adebayo at the arc when Adebayo hit his second three.
It's natural to see Adebayo hit a three in five straight games for the first time in his career and think Miami’s offense is about to shift, but we’re a long, long way from that happening. Right now teams are giving Adebayo that shot because he doesn’t take them – though Sunday’s buzzer beater was more of a scramble situation with Adebayo’s defender moving to cut off Terry Rozier. That typically isn’t going to change until Adebayo starts taking those shots regularly, and it’s not going to change in a way that truly matters as far as the geography on the floor until Adebayo starts making them regularly. Not just one or two a week, one or two a game. And we really don’t have any sense of how good a shooter he can be from that range, though it is interesting that these threes have come at the same time as Adebayo has been in a bit of a funk from the free-throw line (61.7 percent since All-Star).
In other words, we’ll see. Adebayo taking threes has been a topic of conversation for years so there isn’t much left to say until it starts happening – a point we’ve just barely reached today. The occasional take or make is fun and makes for good conversation. At the right time they can outright hand Miami a win. But the path to truly changing how defenses treat you is a long one, and there are growing pains along that road.
If the threes continue to come, though, they’re clearly going to come from the top. That’s the only way for Adebayo to find those shots without Miami completely changing how he functions within an offense that largely functions based on how and where he moves.
SIGNING UP FOR COMPETITION
More on Adebayo, from Spoelstra.
There isn’t much anyone can do with Nikola Jokic other than make him work harder for his shots than the next guy, but Adebayo has proven himself to be among those who make him work the hardest. In two games against Miami this regular season Jokic has 30 combined points on 11-of-23 shooting to go with 13 combined assists. Fine numbers, if a little short of what the two-time MVP can put up in his sleep, and Denver won both of those games relatively comfortably down the stretch, but it wasn’t as if Jokic was walking into his spots and taking easy shots. Instead, many of Denver’s possessions looked like this, at least when they were trying to get Jokic the ball inside the arc.
Notebook 73: Bam Fronting Jokic
“There’s no one better in the league who can negotiate this,” Spoelstra said after the game. “First of all nobody will go toe-to-toe, minute-for-minute against Jokic other than Bam. Bam signs up for that and he’ll put himself out there and be vulnerable to the competition. That’s the competitor of all competitors. That just sets the tone, but it is difficult. You have to negotiate so many different things. At the top of the floor, in the post – they started to post him up a little more then once you’re comfortable with that they go to the two-man action, then you have to do pick-and-roll basketball, then the ball goes back to him and you have to play him off the dribble and try to disrupt passing angles and all that. But that’s why Bam is Bam.
“That’s why I always say, year after year, he should be in consideration for Defensive Player of the Year. Because he can do things and will put himself out there to do things that the majority of the league won’t because it’s easier to not do it. Sometimes you’re going to get beat because Jokic is a great player, sometimes you’re going to get scored on or fouled or you play your pick-and-roll defense, the ball goes back to him and he scores because somebody else didn’t do their job. There’s a lot of things that go into it. They’re a complex team.”
We don’t need to oversell Adebayo’s defense on Jokic considering how well Denver has played Miami over the past few years. The results are the results. But watch that clip again and see how much size he’s giving up, using his speed to his advantage by fighting back in front for position midway through a possession. You aren’t going to find anyone who stops Jokic, but you’re also not going to find many players who make him work like Adebayo, who spent much of that game blowing up Denver’s bread-and-butter actions between Jokic and Jamal Murray in drop coverage until Reggie Jackson hit a couple jumpers in the drop cushion in the fourth quarter.
SHUT OUT
Even more Adebayo because why not? He’s Miami’s constant, holding the team together one both sides of the floor through all the various injuries that continue to plague the team.
Against Philadelphia on Monday, Adebayo had 20 points and six assists on 8-of-10 shooting through three quarters. Then, in the fourth quarter of what eventually became a clutch game, he took zero shots as Miami lost by seven. What happened?
First things first, with Miami’s full court pressing bench unit, including Thomas Bryant, storming back against the Sixers’ bench, Adebayo didn’t come into the game until just under the six minute mark after he had been waiting at the table. We’re talking about less than half a quarter. His first possession back on the floor he’s immediately in pick-and-roll with Rozier, eventually getting the ball back at the top of the arc before he swung it to Caleb Martin for a spot-up look.
Second possession, another screen for Rozier that Rozier took in for a layup. Third possession, another pick-and-roll with Rozier with Adebayo getting help up by Buddy Hield with the low man, Tyrese Maxey, sinking into the paint. After a Jaquez Jr. post-up, more Adebayo screens, Maxey continuing to pull into the paint to chuck Adebayo off his roll.
Notebook 73: Maxey Low Man Bam
Later Adebayo gets a catch at the elbow in an offensive rebound situation, but two players sink in and he kicks it to Martin for an eventual and-one drive. There was an opportunity for a post-up with just over a minute to play, but Nic Batum fronted the pass with a short clock and Rozier was forced into a three. From there on, mostly scramble situations as the HEAT trailed in the final minute.
Adebayo was involved in just about every possession, either setting a screen or getting a playmaking touch, with his usual zone mostly taken away by Philadelphia clogging the lane with third and fourth defenders. You might ask why not try to get Adebayo some early post touches, which is a question that the Sixers had answered earlier in the game when they clearly showed their intention to double Adebayo’s post touches.
Notebook 73: Bam Post Doubled
Drawing two in the post is often a good situation for Miami, but they were generating solid offense out of pick-and-roll without having to worry about killing their own shot clock trying to setup post touches.
Big picture, this is a story that just about every big man in the league has dealt with, including Joel Embiid. As players who generally don’t bring the ball up and attack from 30 feet out, they’re reliant on other players getting them the ball in their spots. Defenses, then, can sell out on taking away those spots to deny said big man their touches outright, and so many, many, many centers who had previously been rolling have struggled to find shots down the stretch of close games. Sure, you can force the issue, which can possibly lead to tough shots as the defense collapses on your dribble anyway, but such is life for the modern center. A defense focused on taking away their touches isn’t all too different from a defense focused on taking away a guard with doubles and blitzes on screens – the difference is the guard starts the possession with the ball while a center might not touch it at all.
MIND GAMES
We don’t need to harp on Cunningham’s decision to shoot with nine seconds on the clock on Sunday anymore, but there is one small aspect of that play worth drawing attention to. Cunningham told Omari Sankofa II of the Detroit Free Press that he “read that they were about to double” which is part of why he decided to shoot early, not wanting to be forced into giving the ball up. Still not a reason to give Miami time to go the other way, but it’s an explanation.
Was Miami going to double? Watch Caleb Martin on the play.
Notebook 73: Caleb Stunting Cade
The way the floor is setup there, it’s a little hard to believe that Martin was going to double out of the strong side corner and leave Evan Fournier wide open. But Martin’s activity, with that quick little stunt, clearly caught Cunningham’s attention. Whether or not Spoelstra had told anyone to double – this possession came off a steal, so there was no timeout for special instructions – we’ll probably never know. What’s important is that Martin made Cunningham think the double was coming, and that small movement was enough to afford the HEAT enough time for a game winner on the other end.
Just another small, winning play to write on Martin’s ledger , which is already full of them.
ROLE ROULETTE
The players with the most interesting roles on the HEAT roster right now are Nikola Jovic and Haywood Highsmith. Jovic we’ve discussed recently. He either starts or he doesn’t play at all, and it remains to be seen whether his current starting spot – before the injury that’s had him out the past two games – will endure into the postseason.
Highsmith, on the other hand, has been all over the place. Some of that is due to a series of injuries earlier in the season, before which he had started 14 consecutive games in which he was available. He also started seven straight in across January and February, but since then he’s played over 20 minutes six times, between 10 and 19 minutes three times and fewer than 10 minutes six times (while appearing in the game). The only game he didn’t see the court – remember, just about every HEAT game has been close so his minutes haven’t been a function of garbage time in the fourth quarter – was against Denver on the road, which in itself was interesting given Spoelstra used him in spot minutes against Jamal Murray last season in the Finals. Highsmith then played seven minutes against Denver in Miami.
Injuries to the rest of the roster are always a factor, which is why the games where he played four, five or six minutes are so interesting right now. In a sense, he’s in the rotation without being a rotation player – a specialist role where nearly every game requires his specialty at a different time or quarter. And when he is on the court, Spoelstra typically has him exclusively on the other team’s best or second-best scorer, with Highsmith seeing minutes against Murray, Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as a primary defender.
“I’m just staying ready,” Highsmith says. “Sometimes I don’t know if I’m going to play but it is what it is, just have to stay ready for when my number is called. Every time he looks down the bench I’m ready in case he says my name.”
Highsmith’s skillset – shooting 36 percent from three while being the only player on the roster outside of Adebayo at +1.0 or better in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus – is mostly a known commodity, which is partially what allows Spoelstra to deploy him in so many different situations. Not every player could handle such varied and sporadic minutes, but that’s essentially been Highsmith’s journey to this point. His game fits the postseason style of basketball and his defensive versatility allows Miami to switch more than it has been during the regular season, so it’s very possible his minutes increase down the road.
For now, playing regularly is playing regularly, and that’s no small thing for a player who has beaten overwhelming odds to get to where he is.
SOUND CHECK
One item we had on our early season checklist after the HEAT’s historic shooting during their Finals run and their subsequent offseason roster changes was three-point volume. Miami typically had an above-average or higher shot frequency from behind the arc during the Jimmy Butler era, especially given how few threes Butler generally takes, but they came into this campaign without many players who had taken threes at high volume in their careers.
Miami is down at No. 17 in three-point frequency this season, 35.1 percent of their field-goal attempts coming behind the arc after 37.5 percent last year and 38.6 percent the year before, and it’s not a result of the league passing them by as league volume has mostly remained static for the past four seasons. They’re simply taking fewer three-point shots than they have since Butler arrived in 2019.
Is this a good or bad thing? In a vacuum, it’s neither. The Celtics lead the league in three-point rate (43.7 percent) and they have the league’s best offense – their high variance game can also give them issues in small sample playoff series – but No. 30 is Denver which may be the most sustainable offense for the postseason and in the middle of those two is the No. 2 offense, Indiana, with the No. 15 three-point rate. Offensive success is not uniform. That said, Miami is No. 21 in Offensive Rating, they lead the league in upper paint shots – at a solid 46.9 percent – and are No. 29 in rim frequency. They’ve always been near the bottom of the league in rim rate so that isn’t anything new, now they’ve traded a few threes per game for mid-range looks.
The complicated part of this is that those mid-range looks are necessary in the postseason when the best defenses scheme away all those high-value opportunities you’ve spent the year feasting on. You’re going to need Adebayo dotted line jumpers. You’re going to need Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro pull-ups and Jimmy Butler fadeaways. No team plays into June without players who can hit those shots. Miami diversifying their offensive menu to the point where they can generally set up those looks when necessary has been a big part of their last two postseason runs.
The question is more whether, or how, Miami can scale up their volume when it is necessary, especially against all the various Eastern Conference teams that play a ton of drop coverage. Rozier will help there, as will a healthy Herro when he gets right, but as of today Miami has five games with 40-plus three-point attempts after 14 all of last season and 28 the year before when Adebayo missed a month. Against Denver last week they attempted just 21 threes, tying their season low, forcing them into a value opportunity game against one of the best two-point teams in the league. As much as you need those mid-range shots, they can’t be your only source of offensive nutrition.
Answers are only going to come in the postseason, but for now this is one of the most important trends in Miami’s offense even if, on paper, it only looks like the difference of a few percentage points.
TIDBITS
-Miami’s 32 unique starting lineups this season are a franchise record.
-The HEAT are averaging 17.5 possessions per game that goes into the last five seconds of the shot clock, third-most in the league behind New York and Orlando. Last season they were also No. 3 with 18.6 late-clock possessions per game. Miami’s efficiency on those possessions has been around 104 points per 100 in each season.
-After missing out on clutch qualifications in a handful of December and January games – leads or deficits lingering between six and nine while never dropping below five under five minutes in the fourth – Miami is now tied for the fourth-most clutch games in the league at 37, three behind the Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors. They are 19-18 in those games (32-22 last season) with a Net Rating of -17.4 (they were +14.7 last year).
-Removing assist opportunities to focus more on individual defense, Adebayo is currently No. 3 of the 63 players who have defended at least 100 isolations, per Second Spectrum tracking data, in allowing 0.78 points per. And of the 30 players who have defended at least 1,000 pick-and-rolls he’s No. 4, allowing 0.96 points-per. Rudy Gobert, at No. 1, allows 0.93. More on Adebayo’s defense coming soon.