1. How about a quick advanced metric comparison on front court duos of Bam/Caleb vs Bam/Jović - @mdg0522
We’ll start things off with an easy one. Here are the numbers on these two pairings.
Adebayo+Martin (451)
Offensive Rating: 111.7
Defensive Rating: 104.5
Net Rating: +7.1
Adebayo+Jović (61 minutes)
Offensive Rating: 104.7
Defensive Rating: 119.0
Net Rating: -14.3
Not much left to the imagination there. Naturally there is a major difference in sample size and the Jović minutes have largely come when Miami is missing multiple players from its core rotation, so we aren’t exactly comparing apples to apples. Jović has shown quite a bit of promise but so far the defensive numbers are what you would expect from a young player trying to man a frontcourt spot.
If you’re wondering if those Adebayo+Martin minutes sustain when they share the court with Jimmy Butler, turns out they get even better. With all three of those players on the court, Miami has been +17.3 per 100 in 353 possessions. Good sign going forward.
2. Is Adebayo's recent offensive performances a turning point, or is it just temporary until, say, Jimmy returns? Do you agree Adebayo "taking the leap" is absolutely necessary for the Heat to really succeed this year? - @Daniel22223333
Is it time to let Bam be the main guy (at least during regular season), let Jimmy take it easy because we know what playoff Jimmy can bring. - @iamtzamac
Do you think this is a sustainable form of "aggressive Bam" when we've got our other main playmakers and scorers around him? And if not, do you think we're approaching the point where Bam could anchor bench units on both ends of the floor? - @corpseinorbit
There’s a lot to unpack on the Adebayo front and we probably won’t be able to cover it all here. But let’s try.
First, we should acknowledge that there is precedent of Adebayo having a stretch of offensive basketball like this before. Over the past 14 games he’s putting up 22 points, 10 rebounds and 3.5 assists (on 54 percent shooting) as he comes off two games where he combined for 70 points on 42 shots. During the 2020-21 season, he had an 18-game stretch when he averaged 21 points, nine rebounds and 5.5 assists (on 55 percent shooting), centered around a pair of games where he combined for 67 points on 39 shots. What does each of those two-game scoring stretches have in common? Jimmy Butler didn’t play and Adebayo used a ton of isolations and post-ups (33 against Atlanta and Washington this year, 34 against Brooklyn in consecutive games two years ago). In other words, when the HEAT have needed Adebayo to create his own offense more he has obliged. Even when Adebayo dropped 31 in Game 3 against Boston last year, that was the game Butler missed the second half of. There’s also something to be said for Miami’s spacing never quite being perfect with Butler and Adebayo on the court together – regardless of how aggressive Butler is looking for his own offense – which is why there’s always been an emphasis on shooting from the other three positions. When either plays with four other shooters, it has often been a little easier for them to work one-on-one actions.
One-on-one is not entirely how Adebayo is scoring, of course. He’s always one of the best roll men in the league, and against both Washington and Atlanta he got plenty of pocket-pass opportunities at short range – he shot 12-of-20 on non-paint two-pointers, above average but nothing crazy for a two-game sample. But one-on-one is a huge part of becoming a go-to scorer, which is what is on many minds right now. And one-on-one is where Adebayo has made significant gains so far.
Over the past two seasons, Adebayo has used about 5.5 isolations per 100 possessions with his efficiency peaking last season at 1.02 points-per. This year he’s using 8.3 isolations per 100, producing 1.11 points-per. Post-ups are down a bit, which could be random or could be Adebayo recognizing his strengths as a face-up player (and some in-between actions being logged as isolations because he’s catching face-up despite being near a post-up zone). Butler has been out for an extended period so some of this might normalize, but with the isolations especially Adebayo might have reached a level beyond his past performance.
There is a tradeoff, of course. Adebayo’s efficiency is down to 53 percent effective field-goal from his career averages of 55. He’s getting to the free-throw line less and taking fewer shots at the rim. His assists have also fallen, as he’s now in his second-straight year with an assist percentage below 20 – Lowry’s addition is a factor there – after two years hovering around 25 and above. All expected byproducts of looking more for your own offense, but a different player profile nonetheless. Adebayo creating his own offense leads to quite a few short-to-mid range two pointers, and it remains to be seen where his true-talent level rests there efficiency wise (the differences between 40 percent and 45 percent and 50 percent are fairly massive) even as he builds out a familiar and comfortable scoring package.
All in all, we’ll see. Adebayo has looked outstanding of late while maintaining his usual All-World defensive levels. Some of this could be just a hot streak, and the geography of the floor looks different with Butler on the court as do the needs of the team. He’s still toggling between shooting and playmaking a little, though part of that is teams not sending many doubles his way. The scouting report hasn’t changed too much, yet. Teams have their own way of letting you know if you’ve taken the leap. And the other part of taking a leap is believing that you’re taking a leap, and changing your game in the long-term to accommodate new skills and abilities.
The great thing about Adebayo is he can be so many things depending on what the HEAT need him to be. He can play any defensive coverage and he can score with variety and volume. Is he now a 34 percent usage player as he’s been the past two games? Probably not. Miami isn’t designed that way and Adebayo isn’t a lead ballhandler. Can he be closer to 28 as he’s been over the past 14? I don’t see why not. Growing as a one-on-one player, especially one who can work in the mid-range, has ramifications for the postseason. But the truth, as always, will come as the sample size grows and the team gets healthy. For now, Miami’s offense sits No. 23 in the league and Adebayo has done his part keeping them afloat. However usage is distributed between all of Miami’s primary playmakers going forward, the aim is the best overall offense you can find.
3. Is there any difference in the quality of 3s the Heat are getting compared to last year? What explains the huge drop off in 3 pt efficiency? - @ezpz613
Miami has always taken tough threes as it relates to league averages according to tracking data which includes the types of shots, shot locations and distance, plus defensive contests. Last year Miami was No. 30 in three-point Shot Quality, the year before that they were No. 28 and the year before that No. 30. So it’s no surprise that the HEAT are last in the league again in that category. As they were one of the top shooting teams last season they had an expected field-goal percentage 5.4 points higher than expected based on the shots they were taking during the regular season – that reversed course in the playoffs – and this year they’ve been 1.6 percentage points below expectations.
There’s another version of Shot Quality that measures the shots you get against the players actually taking them, and as you can imagine Miami has always ranked higher in that one given the performance of their shooters over the past few years. They take tough threes, flying around handoffs, off the dribble, etc. They also take threes that have historically been right in their wheelhouse.
Not too much has changed, though they are generated about one fewer purely uncontested three this year than before – no small thing when six of those per 100 possessions might lead the league some years – despite their overall volume being right where it was.
So why are they shooting 33.2 percent from three? It’s still early. We’re only 21 games in. Through Thanksgiving of last season Duncan Robinson was hovering around 32 percent from the arc, and from then on he was right back near 40 percent. Remember the 11-30 to 30-11 group from 2016-17? Part of the reason for that team’s dramatic turnaround is they went from one of the worst shooting teams in the league in the first half of the season to the best in the second 41. Slumps. Regression. Recovery. It can happen to teams just the same as individuals. I wouldn’t be surprised if Miami has a prolonged hot streak somewhere on the horizon, especially once they start stringing together games against weaker defenses.
All that said, teams are making a concerted effort to get Max Strus and Duncan Robinson off the arc, hence both of them taking many more two-pointers than before. The opposition has a say in all of this as well. Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro are going to lead the team in pull-up shots so their percentages are will fluctuate a bit through hot and cold streaks. And Miami has more inexperienced, younger players taking chunks of these threes, too. Remember that P.J. Tucker was leading the entire league in three-point percentage for a long stretch of last season. Caleb Martin is over 40 percent himself, but many of the other front-court options have not proven themselves as shooters yet. Even as the shooting comes around for the team, it takes a lot of things going right and coming together to lead the league in that category, and in 2020-21 Miami was right around league average at 35.8 percent.
4. Does Spo stick with the zone when Jimmy comes back? - @ShrekDonkey29
I’m wondering what you make of the zone. In past seasons, we’ve seen Spo call defenses like a pitcher—he’ll have a base coverage as his 4-seam then sprinkle in off-speed pitches. Is the zone his new 4-seam? Is this just an emergency tactic? Would love to hear your thoughts! - @kellyoburner
The zone is the most fascinating part of the early season for the HEAT. They’re now using it for 26 possessions a game, which would already be by far the most any team has ever used zone that we have on record (in the past two decades). Over their last six games they’re up to 55 possessions a game – those 330 zone possessions across six games are more than 22 teams used all of last season. The league has never seen anything like this when it comes to zone.
Describing the zone as an off-speed pitch – Erik Spoelstra used to rely on it primarily as a change-of-pace coverage, throwing teams off balance with a press or a zone as he went deeper into his rotation – that is now a four-seamer in usage is apt. The heater is working, too, as Miami is allowing just 0.97 points per possession in zone which would easily be the best defense in the league. Good thing, too, considering the half-court man defense is allowing 1.15 points per possession (No. 28 in the league). Keeping with the pitching analogue, Miami is piling up strikeouts when they throw gas. When they throw their other pitches they’re watching balls go over the fence.
Is it an emergency tactic? When the man-to-man has been giving up what it has been giving up, it’s tough not to describe it as such. Historically the HEAT have used zone from a position of strength. Now they’re using it as a necessity, to survive.
It’s a precarious position, to be sure, especially when you consider the zone tends to have diminishing returns over the course of a season. Over the last four years not including this one, Miami’s zone has allowed 0.98 ppp in the months of October, November and December. In all regular season months after New Year’s Eve, that number jumps all the way up to 1.12 even as Miami uses it more often. Teams start to plan for it. They prep for it. You can’t catch them off guard later in the year.
But those numbers are based on previous change-of-pace tactics. What if zone continues to be Miami’s leading coverage? Might it have a better chance of sustaining with heavier usage rather than selective? Maybe. This is all unprecedented. Even if all the shooting numbers start to normalize – the zone is allowing around 30 percent from three while the man is closer to 40 percent – zone might just be the HEAT’s best option all year. And if it is, you go with what works. There may be some stigma attached to zone, and it can reduce games to quite a slog at times, but worrying about stigmas isn’t how you put wins on the board.
As for whether the zone continues when Jimmy Butler returns to the lineup, I don’t see why not. Zone plays right into Butler’s free-safety skillset and gives him plenty of opportunities for pick-six steals. We might not see zone for 50-60 possessions a game when he returns, but until the man-to-man shows us otherwise – especially when Adebayo is off the floor – I’m just going to assume the zone is a permanent and significant part of the toolkit. If teams start to attack it better, Spoelstra has clearly shown a willingness to adjust.
5. assuming a fully healthy roster (excl Vic / Yurt) - what’s the optimal ~10 man rotation here? - @Herrojuku
While we aren’t going to try and project Spoelstra’s exact rotations in the event that the team gets closer to whole – these days, what teams ever are fully healthy during the regular season anyway – but there are a few inferences we can make. Until something changes, let’s operate as though the starting lineup is Lowry, Herro, Butler, Martin, Adebayo. That’s five. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus are both fixtures at this point and have more than earned their minutes. That’s seven. Dewayne Dedmon’s minutes have been very helpful of late and he’s the steady backup presence at center. That’s eight. Duncan Robinson hasn’t shot the ball to his standards yet, but there’s no replicating his on-court gravity. Now you’re already at nine. From there, if Spoelstra wants to go 10 deep – minutes are pretty high across the board already – you have Haywood Highsmith, Nikola Jović, and the two-way players in Jamal Cain and Dru Smith. At that point, you’re probably talking situational usage. Do you need more defense or more offense on a given night? Who are you playing? Once you get to that point, there is no optimal rotation. It’s whoever is helping you win the game in front of you.
6. How can Tyler balance his scoring and playmaking to optimize the teams offense? currently we have seen one or the other but not both - @hoopsTalk20
Not sure I agree with the characterization of it being one or the other. When Herro had 10 assists against Washington recently, he still took 18 shots and had five turnovers. With another 10 assists against Atlanta, he took 13 shots and had two turnovers. So he had the ball in his hands plenty and was still looking to score. If a few of those pick-and-roll/handoff connections with Adebayo go a little differently the other night against Atlanta, maybe because the Hawks tried to cover Adebayo a little harder opening up more space for Herro’s floaters in the paint, then you have a couple fewer assists and a couple more shots on the board and it looks a little different.
Herro’s shooting, as with most everyone else’s outside of Martin, is a little bit down this season. The splits are a little surprising given he’s at 43 percent on pull-up threes and 20 percent on catch-and-shoot opportunities, but that should all normalize. His usage is slightly down from last season while his assist and turnover rates are flat. Not too much has changed with his profile, he’s just playing in lineups where he isn’t always the sole generator of offense and with that comes a bit of a learning curve. The Herro-Adebayo pick-and-roll is one of the most used actions on the team’s menu, so he’s going to get plenty of reps. Some nights teams are going to send a second defender at Herro to try and pressure him. Some nights there is going to be drop coverage for him to attack. The coverage is going to dictate what his numbers look like at times, especially since Herro isn’t going to be using a ton of isolations or post-ups where multiple defenders aren’t involved.
7. Do you think we should have [shooters] cutting more, taking defenders away from the action, flares, ball screens behind them, as opposed to running up for the usual DHO until the shots start falling again or bodies get healthier? - @ImplicitHeat
This is already happening, to an extent, with handoffs down and pick-and-rolls up in part due to Herro being inserted into the starting lineup. Of course when the team is shorthanded and they’re just looking for offense wherever they can get it of course they’re going to run handoffs for Max Strus and Duncan Robinson since that’s how you maximize shooting opportunities for them and pockets of gravity opportunities for the team when you don’t have all your main shot creators in uniform. There’s always an element of balance to it. You want your shooters to be live in the eyes of the defense. You want them to be a threat to move. But it has to be the right movement, with the right timing and purpose, lest you have players running into each other and drawing defenders where you don’t want defenders to be. Sometimes you just have to space the floor, and even when shooters are weakside you can still catch them swapping wing and corner locations just to keep defenders thinking and occupied. So yes, there are fewer handoffs especially when the rotation is healthy, but the HEAT have always sought movement and that hasn’t changed.