Coup's Mailbag Vol. 2: Answering Questions On Herro And Bam, Starters And Switching, Rookies And Rotations

1. @fesbutter – “Not saying playing reserves more will have much more of an effect on current outcomes but doesn’t it seem like Spo is playing like 6-7 guys a lot more than usual this early in the season when he’s typically tinkering?”

@MattRJacobson – “Is the early season rotation just Spo searching for something that works or normal experimentation?”

We’ll start with two rotation questions that go together. To answer Matt’s question, both things go hand in hand. It’s true that Erik Spoelstra tends to use the early portions of the season to try out a few different looks and see how they work, but he’s also not going to try and fix something that isn’t broken. If the team had six lineups that always won their minutes then there would be no need for experimentation because the team would be winning all their games. Nobody has it that good, and Spoelstra isn’t on any set schedule for when he’ll try certain things or not. Last year Max Strus didn’t join the starting lineup until Game 76. Three years ago Jae Crowder didn’t swap into the opening group for Meyers Leonard until the team went to Orlando after everything was put on pause. Amar’e Stoudemire (in 2016) and Mario Chalmers (in 2011) both became starts in Game 44 of those seasons. Shane Battier wasn’t a regular starter at all, as you’ll probably remember, until Chris Bosh went down against the Indiana Pacers in the East Semifinals of 2012. Changes can come at any time, if they’re needed at all.

As to Fes’ part of this question, Spoelstra is playing his top players more than usual. There were some injuries involved – and some blowouts – but through the first seven games last season the top six players in minutes per game were combining for 184.3 minutes a night. Through seven games this season, the top six are averaging 195.2 minutes. That may not seem like much, but over 82 games that’s 893 extra minutes spread out over six players. Butler is playing 35 minutes for the first time in a HEAT uniform after three straight years under 34, Adebayo is over 35 for the first time and both Max Strus and Caleb Martin are at least five minutes a night over their previous career highs – only Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro are about the same. Usage will likely come down as the team starts getting some wins and/or leads that allow for a little more rest, but for the moment minutes are certainly up.

2. @dethpoi1 – “The Tyler Bam pick and roll seems so efficient, why don’t they use it more?”

You’re spot on that’s it has been efficient. According to Second Spectrum’s numbers, the Herro-Adebayo has produced 1.36 points-per-direct pick – that number was 0.94 last season – which is No. 2 in the league behind only the combination of Steph Curry and Kevon Looney (1.46 points-per-direct pick). Herro being in the starting lineup enables the HEAT to get to that combination fairly often and something we went over in the notebook last week was that if teams are indeed going to blitz or show on Herro with any consistency that might be the secret to unlocking more downhill playmaking opportunities for Adebayo.

They do use it plenty, however. The Herro-Adebayo pick-and-roll is No. 13 in total usage across the league this season with 77 total picks. Even if that ranking is a little inflated because the HEAT have played seven games while others have not, that’s still 20 more screens for that pairing then the next most used on Miami’s ledger, which is the Kyle Lowry-Adebayo connection at 57 used screens. Do they spam it every single time down the floor? No, but that hasn’t been this team’s style with any single trigger or action. They go to what they think is appropriate for the opponent and the coverages they are seeing – you’ll get more Lowry-Butler screens if there are smaller guards to draw out onto Butler via a switch, for example – so the fact that Herro-Adebayo lead pretty much all HEAT actions in usage so far should be pretty telling.

3. @adrianw743 – “How are the Heat doing in stats like points in the paint, second chance points, rebounding totals, pace, 3 pointers attempted vs %, points off turnovers and turnovers forced, and effective field goal % for and against?”

A question that can be answered with a bullet-pointed list? Brilliant. Everything below that isn’t a percentage is per 100 possessions unless noted otherwise.

The HEAT were No. 28 in points in the paint last season, so it’s normal for them to be low in that category. While the defensive rebounding hasn’t been up to their standards, I suspect that number will improve as time goes on. Where they are underperforming based on last season’s winning profile is on the offensive glass, all their efficiencies after they were one of the most efficient teams in the league last year (No. 1 three-point shooting, No. 3 in true shooting percentage) and, curiously, in three-point attempt rate where they’ve traded in a few threes per game for attempts in the mid-range zones.

4. @Azam92_ -- “This might be a clunky question, but is there a tangible means of measuring gravity, comparing what Duncan/Strus did last year versus now having Caleb in sort of that role?”

While gravity is a concept that we all understand at this point after years of watching Steph Curry change the geography of the game, it’s not the easiest thing to quantify. About eight years ago when tracking data was being introduced to the league – the information that comes out of all the cameras each team has hanging in the rafters of their arenas these days – Kevin Pelton and Tom Haberstroh attempted to create a measurement for gravity at ESPN based on some metrics offered in those days. They found, as Haberstroh wrote about, that Dwyane Wade had abnormally high gravity despite not being a knockdown shooter because teams were both freaked out by his mere presence on the court and he was one of the best off-ball cutters in league history.

Since then, the providers of the tracking data have changed and most of the metrics we use are different from the ones used in those early days. There aren’t really any apples-to-apples versions of what Pelton and Haberstroh were using, at least any that aren’t behind closed doors, which might be a good thing because it’s just an incredibly difficult thing to nail down and sometimes it’s better to have no measurement at all than an inaccurate one.

All that said, once we’re a little deeper into the season I’ll be looking into things like Drives per 100 possessions and Paint Touches per 100 possessions with different combinations of players on the floor – Butler with the starters versus Butler with both Strus and Robinson on court, for example – along with the three-point Shot Quality of various shooters. But that’ll all be used to double check the stories being told by film.

One cool thing we have, however, is an ability to measure closeouts. In particular, whether a closeout is full – to the ball – short or a fly-by. Last year, for example, no guard generated more short closeouts on possessions where they shot the ball than Russell Westbrook, and no center did so more than Joel Embiid. That’s more useful for measuring a sort of anti-gravity, or at least how defenses weigh the threat of a drive versus a jumper. On the flip side, nobody generated more fly-by closeouts than Reggie Bullock, but part of that is going to be a function of his role in a Luka Doncic-oriented offense. I would posit that Strus and Robinson generate fewer fly-bys because they’re spotting up less and flying around screens more, and there’s far less cause for a fly-by when defending a handoff.

5. @YAWKYAWK – “Why isn't Jovic getting more opportunities with big depth being an issue.”

The Nikola Jović situation is interesting in that Spoelstra played him at center during the preseason all while saying he didn’t intend to play Jović much at center and was only doing so because Miami’s other centers weren’t available. But a few games into the season both Omer Yurtseven and Dewayne Dedmon have missed games and thus Jović has again become a center by necessity – and the team has generally avoided asking him to switch pick-and-rolls despite that probably being his most natural coverage long term.

As for why he isn’t playing more than emergency minutes, with Udonis Haslem getting some run against Sacramento when Adebayo got into foul trouble, I’d recommend trusting your eyes and the coach. Spoelstra has repeatedly noted just how much Jović has had to pick up over the past few weeks, and considering he’s shown no reluctance to use young players early in a season before we should trust that he knows what Jović is ready for right now. Granted the Warriors are as tough a test as exists in the league for a young big, but Jović looked like he was trying to grapple a whirlwind at times in that game. If there are defensive questions, it’s easier to get a player on the floor if he isn’t playing the most important defensive position in the game as a center. Before you say Jović could make up for the defensive learning curve with offense, I’d suspect many are underselling just how good you have to be offensively for that equation to work out on the plus side.

Long term, with healthy bodies on the roster, Jović is most likely a power forward. He could even look fantastic playing next to Bam Adebayo someday. Maybe that day is in the next month. Maybe that day is in a couple of years. Trust Spoelstra to have the best idea for when that could be.

6. @SergioVerona78 – “Would having PJ Tucker this season be of any help?”

I’m not in a position to discuss roster decisions, actual or theoretical, but I have regularly noted that Tucker was one of the very best switch defenders of a generation and perhaps in league history. Last year he was as perfect a fit as you could find in the past five years to play next to Adebayo. Whether Tucker will continue to be that player as he adds more mileage to the odometer, that’s not something anyone can really know. What made Tucker unique was his ability to switch down to guard speedy guards and switch up to defend the biggest of centers. Just about every team in the league is looking for players like that, and it’s certainly been noticeable at times when Adebayo is switched out onto the perimeter and there isn’t a Tucker behind him to scram switch onto the largest threat in the paint.

7. @dubeyball – “They just finished a stretch of 5 games in 7 nights. Can we take some solace in that? (Came out super flat vs SAC in 1st half, had GSW on a 2nd night of back to back and couldn’t close out)?”

Playing two different sets of three games in four nights has definitely felt like quite a bit for the first week or so of the season, and as of Sunday morning the HEAT were one of five team that had played seven or more games. Of those five, only the Jazz (5-2) had a winning record.

Not only that, they’ve been playing good-to-great teams. Even Sacramento, at 0-4 at the time of the game, was much better and more talented than their record would have indicated. There’s certainly something to the fact that the league is as deep and talented as ever and there are fewer easy wins on the schedule these days, but if long, switchy defenses are a thorn in Miami’s side as they were often last season, Miami has already played that type of defense four times in Boston, Golden State and twice against Toronto. The 82-game slate may be as tough as it’s ever been, but it’s fair to say this has been a challenging start on Miami’s part – albeit not one that entirely explains away everything.

8. @Khaleef_1 – “Do you think without dipo and yurt, the bench has looked worse than originally planned?”

Tough to say what was originally planned as it’s not like the team maps out a blueprint for us before the season but having both Yurtseven and Dedmon hurt at the same time surely wasn’t to be expected. As for Oladipo, there isn’t much information for any of us to go on at the moment. Coming into the season I thought that a bounce-back for him, after a healthy and productive offseason, would help ease the transition of Herro into the starting lineup because Oladipo could soak up some of that bench usage from a playmaking standpoint. How effective Oladipo was going to be in that role we could only wait to see, but there have been some lineups that have felt a little light on ballhandling and shot creation at times in his absence.

9. @mdg0522 – “What are some defensive metrics for our starting backcourt so far?”

It’s too early in the season for solid advanced defensive metrics as those aren’t released for a little while. What we know right now is that in the 197 minutes Kyle Lowry and Herro have been on the court together so far, the HEAT have allowed 111.4 points per 100 possessions – a number that would rank No. 16 among all teams. Not where Miami would want to be, but well within reason at the time of year when one game can vault you ten spots up the rankings. Of course not all of their minutes are with the starters, and that group has posted a Defensive Rating of 104.7 in 81 minutes which would rank out as a Top 5 defense.

10. @QUIZ_HEAT – “Is it time for a lineup change? Either Strus back in for Herro or Gabe in for Lowry?”

Another question about the starters. Even with their 2-5 record – really it’s 2-4 since Martin was suspended for one game when Strus started – the starters are outscoring opponents by 9.0 points per 100 possessions in 81 minutes with great defense and a little better than league-average offense. Wouldn’t say any of that is cause to raise a red alert.

Course it’s not all about the starters, it’s about the rotation. As noted above Herro starting, and Oladipo being injured, has created a bit of a usage rift in the bench lineups and the team still appears to be navigating who should be carrying what load and when. That can’t be pushed aside considering the team sits No. 24 on Offensive Rating, but I’m of the mind that we need to see more of what these starters can be offensively as presently constructed. Herro’s ability to draw two defenders to the ball in pick-and-roll has the potential to really open up Adebayo’s downhill creation game, and the postseason ramifications of being able to get to that consistently are probably worth enduring some rotational growing pains along the way – assuming the wins start to come eventually as expected. Spoelstra can always flip the switch when he feels like it, as we have three years of evidence for what a movement shooter in that opening group would look like.

11. @Gummyverge – “I thought the Heat were planning to fill in a bigger lineup this season. like bam and dedmond/bam and yert. obviously yert hasn't played this season but dedmon has been playing before the injury and seems like having jovic as a backup big man is not a very bad idea at all.”

While Spoelstra tried out playing Adebayo and Yurtseven – not with Dedmon to my knowledge – together during training camp in the preseason he never appeared to be all that enthusiastic about the results and made sure to temper expectations for how regularly he would go to that look. It’s just very tough to not have ideal spacing around a Butler and Adebayo pairing, as even though Martin isn’t shooting at high volume he’s done nothing but sustain his shooting gains from last season and is at 42.9 percent on 2.3 threes a game. As for Jović, I’m sure we’ll see him next to Adebayo eventually, just please don’t call that a two-center lineup when it happens.

12. @jay4774 – “Spo used a little zone last night but till it was too late. Is it time to stop constantly switching and at least try man to man. Herro on regular defensive match ups this season ranks 4th in the nba! Yet when we switch he is constantly left on the best player and gets torched.”

@judgebeats – “teams have looked a little more comfortable this year navigating our switches, switching mismatches on ball/Bam away from the rim - do u expect more over/unders on these “soft” actions just looking to draw a switch, or more doubling down on switch+help with better energy/effort?”

There’s a lot to unpack here and some of it is probably best left for another day. I’m going to guess that the reference to Herro in regular defensive matchups is referring to the field-goal percentages he’s allowing when he’s the primary defender on a shot. I’ll just say right now that I don’t use those numbers much at all for a variety of reasons unless it’s specifically for shots defended around the rim. If you insist on using them, at least you effective field-goal percentage.

With regards to the zone, Spoelstra has used it for 70 possessions already this season – which feels like a ton given that he’s previously waited to show that card before – and Miami has only allowed 0.61 points per possession, per Synergy Sports, in that time. That’s lights out. As for the man-to-man, it’s allowed 0.94 points per possession, which is about bang-on average.

Whether to switch or not is something we could go very long on. For now I’ll just say that in Adebayo the team has one of the best switch defenders we’ve ever seen and in utilizing a switching defense the HEAT are weaponizing his abilities to their fullest extent. He can play softer, drop coverages when asked to – and does so more than he’s given credit for – but he’s not a seven-foot shot blocker who is going to deter all comers. Adebayo’s strengths give the team an identity. Even if it looks poor at times if a big center gets an interior catch against a small HEAT defender, the numbers have almost always born out that switching is the superior option for this group. Miami protects the paint by keeping people out of it, not by inviting the ball inside.

Now, the HEAT are allowing 1.06 points-per-direct-screen when switching this year, a number that sits No. 22 on the leaderboards, and that is neither ideal nor sustainable in the long term. But as is often the case the answer is more often to get back to doing what you do and do it better than it is to change everything that it is you do. Spoelstra noted after the Sacramento loss that the team, and we’re paraphrasing here, has all the answers to the test already. In other words, they know what their winning formula is. They just have to do it.

Lastly, when it comes to whether the team is giving up switches too easily that can be a bit of a razor’s edge. Trying to micro-manage switch situations throughout an entire game – who can switch where and when and who can’t – is tough for any team to do. But when it comes down to late-game situations I don’t think Spoelstra gets much credit for how creative they are in trying to avoid switches which includes asking a Herro, for example, to show to the ball way out past the arc and make a long recovery. You might say why not just drop in those situations, but those are the exact times you don’t want to concede comfortable space for elite attackers. There’s a reason that even teams that don’t switch regularly will choose to switch in high-leverage moments.

13. @deceb7 – “Right now it seems that Spo is using Max as a backup for Caleb. What do you think of having him sub in for Tyler so that he gets more run providing spacing early for Jimmy and Bam and giving Cain or Jovic a shot at being Caleb's backup?”

Strus is indeed subbing in for Martin, with Martin and Adebayo often the first two starters removed about midway through the first quarter. This is definitely creating some even smaller than usual small-ball moments for the bench, but that’s just what is available right now. We’ve already discussed Jović plenty, and the same line of thinking applies to Jamal Cain. If Spoelstra thinks he’s ready, he’ll play him. Besides, you’re still playing Strus regardless and Robinson is the one subbing in for Herro now, so adding another sub just creates a 10-man rotation which might not be what Spoelstra wants right now with the record what it is.

Considering Adebayo has been coming out at the same time as Martin, subbing Strus in earlier for Herro wouldn’t give him any more time acting as a spacer for the Butler-Adebayo combination than he’s already getting now – and those minutes do exist, which is why Adebayo returns before the first and third quarters are over.

14. @ChicoritoMarito – “Where do think Tyler is going to be in PPG this season? Do we think he is going to be the clear number 1 scorer or he is just going to be sitting top of the pile of 17-22 Ppg scores the Heat have. Can he get up to 25-27 if the Heat are leaning more into offense?”

This question was asked just before the season began and I thought it doubtful then that Herro would get upward of 25 a night not because he’s incapable of it but because it just isn’t how this roster or offense is designed to operate. While there are usage leaders this is a more egalitarian group than most, one that relies and thrives on ball and body movement versus one player leading the team in shots every night.

Right now Herro is averaging 19.9 a game, slightly down from 20.7 last year in his bench role, but what has been most interesting is that his usage rate has dropped from 28.8 to 25.5 and it’s also down almost across the board for all of the team’s offensive leaders (only Gabe Vincent has seen a usage uptick of more than a percentage point on the entire team). Even as that is relatively expected with Herro now a starter and there being fewer heliocentric lineups for one player who shoulder a heavy burden in, that usage flattening suggests there remains a feeling out process for the new rotation.

15. @jnicho20 – “What movies you looking forward to over the next 2 months?”

Along comes Jeff with the questions that really make you think. Seriously. Putting aside some of the October horror releases that are at the top of my watch list right now because of the time year (Smile, Terrifier 2, etc.) I’d say I’m equally excited to see what Park Chan-wook did with Decision To Leave and Cate Blanchett in Tár because that looks like less of a role to seek out awards with and more like a role that makes people reconsider exactly what sort of performances deserve the annual accolades.

Glass Onion is up there because Knives Out was delightful and word of mouth has been just as good if not better on this one. The Whale because who isn’t rooting for Brendan Fraser and Aronofsky is Aronofsky. Bones and All because weird Luca Guadagnino is the best Luca Guadagnino. Banshees of Inisherin because Farrell and Gleeson are a perfect pair and it’ll be nice to see Kerry Condon have a real moment after the premature cancellation of HBO’s Luck may have robbed her of one. The Menu because I want to see it opening night knowing as little as possible. Avatar because come on, it’s still James Cameron and he doesn’t miss. A few months ago I might’ve said Neil Marshall’s (The Descent, Dog Soldiers) The Lair in anticipation of a comeback for someone who was once one of the most promising genre directors of a generation, but word has not been good on that one.

Lastly, and I’m speaking directly to Netflix here, but where is Havoc? Gareth Evans (of The Raid 1 and 2). Tom Hardy. Timothy Olyphant. Forest Whitaker. It wrapped filming in 2021. Give us Havoc. *shakes fist at the heavens*