2018 Prospect Profile

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This piece does not reflect the views of the Minnesota Timberwolves.

30 games, 23 starts, 25.6 MPG, 10.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 2.6 BPG, 1.4 APG, 63.2 FG%, 47.1 FT%

Williams is considered a late-lottery or mid first-round pick.

If you’re looking for an athletic rim-running big man in the 2018 NBA Draft not named DeAndre Ayton, Williams is your guy. He seemed like a giant in college, but is only 6’9. That’s because the dude can straight up fly.

His scoring average dipped from 11.9 to 10.4 points from his freshman to sophomore season, but he upped his field-goal percentage, rebounds per game and blocks per game. This is an old-school big man. His 3-point shot is nonexistent. Over two seasons, Williams shot just 2-for-30 from deep. Free throws are also an issue for him, shooting 54.1 percent in college.

He’s more Clint Capela than Kevin Love, and that’s okay. There is still value in a guy who can throw down lobs. He’s also a decent passer for his size.

Offensively, his buckets are going to come at the rim.

He had plenty of solid games, scoring 13 or more points eight times on the season. But he also had some duds, scoring five or less points seven times.

Defensively, though, he’s a little more versatile. He led the SEC in blocks as a sophomore and he projects as a very solid rim protector in the NBA. He’s also athletic enough to not look completely lost when guarding wings on the perimeter.

“Defense, whether it’s switching or blocking, I feel like that’s my strongest attribute,” Williams told the Washington Times. “It’s just about embracing, willing to stop a guard. I’m having fun guarding them out there, so I feel like once you’re comfortable with it, you can get it.”

Fit will be key for Williams at the next level. He’s not a player who can fit with any offense simply because of his lack of jump shot. It’s something that will be completely renovated over his NBA career. Even a midrange jumper would be a huge step forward for him.

A player like Capela certainly did good things for Williams’ draft status. The 20-year-old is now expected to be a mid first-round pick. In our Timberwolves.com mock draft, we have Williams going to the Wizards at No. 15. That seems like a good fit considering Marcin Gortat’s age (34).

Williams has certain tools to be effective in the NBA, but he also has plenty to work on.

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How Does Robert Williams Fit In Today's NBA?

Robinson will likely be a late first-round or early second-round pick

There’s always a certain allure to the unknown, and in this draft, Mitchell Robinson might be the biggest unknown out there.

Robinson was a highly-rated prospect headed into the year, but after unexpectedly leaving Western Kentucky, where he had attended classes and practiced with the team for about two weeks, he was suspended indefinitely for violating team rules. After it became clear that his NCAA eligibility would not transfer to another school, he opted to forgo college basketball altogether and prepare for the 2018 NBA Draft on his own.

This is a conundrum and one that every NBA team will look at differently. On one hand, he was expected to be one of the top talents in this year’s class, and in AAU-level competition, he hung with the likes of DeAndre Ayton and Marvin Bagley, two of the draft’s top bigs. On the other hand, he went no-show on the college he committed to, and hasn’t played against high-level competition in over a year.

For teams looking for a sure thing, selecting Robinson is out of the question, but for teams willing to gamble on the star-potential of the young center, he could be a steal.

Robinson is all upside. He’s an elite athlete with a huge wingspan and great leaping ability, he projects as a real asset on the defensive end who can survive switches onto smaller players and block shots, he’s a potentially elite rebounder, and there’s a real possibility he could develop into a quality NBA shooter.

However, to develop all these intriguing skills to their fullest potential will require a coaching staff with time and patience. Robinson needs to improve his feel for the game, his screening technique, his ability to play within both an offensive and defensive system and work on his discipline. Robinson is the type of player that could break out in his third or fourth year, but if he lands with a team that’s not willing to put in the consistent work, he could be one of those players that bounce around the league and eventually fall out of it.

But it’s not all on his team—Robinson still has to prove that he’s someone who will put in the work necessary to improve. I don’t know the specifics of his situation at Western Kentucky, that’s between Robinson and the program, but skipping out on a team after two weeks isn’t a great look. Robinson needs to nail his interviews to prove he was acting strategically rather than impulsively when he decided not to play in college.

Someone will certainly take a chance on Robinson, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes a lot higher than where he’s projected. It’s a funny world we live in—Michael Porter Jr. barely played, and played badly, and he’s projected to go as high as second overall. Meanwhile, Robinson, who was a top-10 recruit heading into the 2017 NCAA season, has likely fallen outside of the top 20 without stepping foot on the court. Who knows how good this kid will be, it’s easy to talk yourself in or out of prospects, but the team that picks Robinson will have to deal with the implication—he could be the next big thing or he could be a wasted pick. 

is-mitchell-robinson-worth-the-risk

Is Mitchell Robinson Worth The Risk?

37 games, 33.7 MPG, 14.4 PPG, 5.1 APG, 4.1 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 0.5 BPG 48.5 FG%, 40.4 3P%, 81.7 FT%

Gilgeous-Alexander will likely be a late lottery pick

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander wasn’t even supposed to be the best player on his team, let alone one of the top NBA prospects in the country. When Gilgeous-Alexander committed to Kentucky, he was the sixth-highest rated prospect on the squad. However, by the end of the year it was clear who the team belonged to—the quick, lanky combo guard from Canada.

Gilgeous-Alexander is an appealing prospect at the NBA level even if it’s not quite clear how he’ll fit in on some teams. He’s a great ball handler with a real feel for the game. He makes phenomenal reads and should be able to run the pick and roll and make good decisions as a playmaker right away. His court vision is excellent, and he makes good passes both in transition and in the half court—he just needs to make sure he doesn’t try to squeeze in dimes to teammates when he’d be better off looking for the easier pass. There will definitely be an adjustment period in the NBA as Gilgeous-Alexander learns how much faster and smarter NBA defenders are at cutting off passing lanes.

In the NBA, it’s important to be able to create your own shot, and Gilgeous-Alexander can do that. His elite handle makes it easy for him to get to his spots on the floor, and he has good touch on his shots around the rim. With NBA-level spacing around him, that should only improve. Gilgeous-Alexander will also certainly benefit from pro big men setting his screens.

On defense, Gilgeous-Alexander’s long arms and great lateral quickness will make him a good on-ball defender, and he has a high-level understanding of the defensive side of the ball that will make him effective off-ball as well. Gilgeous-Alexander also really commits to defense and brings the intensity on that side of the ball—not always a given in the NBA. Coaches are really going to enjoy working with him.

While Gilgeous-Alexander shot reasonably well in college, he didn’t shoot that many three-pointers, and there are some concerns about his mechanics. His pull-up game is also suspect. Gilgeous-Alexander’s shot looks awkward, and though it has worked for him so far, there’s a sentiment around the league that he’ll have to alter his form to be successful in the NBA. However, Gilgeous-Alexander shoots well from the line and is a hard worker with a good understanding of the game, so there’s little doubt that he’ll put in the time to improve.

“I don’t think people realize how good of a shooter I actually am,” Gilgeous-Alexander said at the NBA Draft Combine. “I didn’t shoot it as much as some guys coming out of college, but I look [forward] to proving that in the upcoming workouts.”

The other concern about Gilgeous-Alexander is his athleticism. He’s not un-athletic per se, but he’s relatively skinny, and he’s not a great leaper. He is super quick, so he won’t get burned on the defensive end, but he won’t be able to handle strong, athletic guards pushing him around. He’ll have to put on muscle as well as develop defensive strategies that take advantage of his length and quickness while minimizing his lack of strength and verticality.

But Gilgeous-Alexander is a worker who will make a lot of friends with his attitude. He’s not going to settle at his current skill level—he wants to be great.

“I want to get better each and every day and attack each and every day,” he said. “Whether that be a pool workout, a sand workout, an on the court workout, I’m just trying to get better in every situation.”

shai-gilgeous-alexander-isnt-done-proving-people-wrong

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Isn’t Done Proving People Wrong

8 games, 21.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 3.7 APG, 37.5 FG%, 87.5 3P%, 66.7 3P%

Simons is considered a late first-round pick who could slide into the second round.

Anfernee Simons is taking an unconventional path to the NBA.  Simons graduated from high school in Orlando before attending a post-grad year at IMG Academy last season. He’s only 18, but will be 19 when the draft starts and will be a year removed from high school, so he’ll be eligible to enter the draft, which he has done.

He’s an athlete, but he’ll need to put on some weight. His shot isn’t as consistent as it needs to be, but man, he's bouncy.

He’s projected to be a late first-round pick/second-round pick in the draft, but who knows if a team sees something it likes with him. And there’s a lot to like. He was a top high-school recruit before choosing to reclassify to become eligible for the draft.

There was a cloud of mystery surrounding Simons at the Combine, and it’s something he was aware of.

“Not many people know who I am,” Simons said. “I’m the mystery prospect. Just try to learn who I am as a person and figure out where I am mentally at this point.”

Teams will try to unveil the mystery of Simons before the draft, but he’s right, people are intrigued by the unknown.

Fun fact: Being born near Orlando, his parents were huge Magic fans. His first name is a nod to former Magic great Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway.

Whoever takes Simons will be a team that first off, can afford taking a risk on somewhat of an unknown. And secondly, it’s a team that has done its research on a player who moves so fluidly, it looks like he was made to run the court.

He has tools to become a solid defender with his 6’9 wing span, 8’3.5 standing reach and his youth, but he’s not close to there yet. He has a decent shot, but he’s going to need to change his release point. There are a lot of developmental things that he’ll have to work on, which seems like Simons could spend a lot of time on a team’s G League affiliate which is 300 times better than sitting on the bench.

anfernee-simons-is-the-mystery-prospect

Anfernee Simons Is The Mystery Prospect

36 games, 27.0 MPG, 8.3 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 43.7 FG%, 28.4 3P%, 70.6 FT%

Melton will be a late first-round or early second-round pick.

De’Anthony Melton is a risk, there’s no question about it, but if he’s taken in the late first round or early second, he might end up a draft-day steal. Melton could be a truly elite NBA defender, but he’s not quite strong enough yet, and his offensive game has a long way to go.

This is an odd way to put it, but Melton’s mind is way ahead of his body when it comes to defense. But that could be a good thing. The 20-year-old guard’s fundamentals are solid, and he reads opposing offenses well. He has the ability to break up passes and get steals, and he knows where to be when. He’s also a good rebounder for his position, which helps him finish off defensive plays.

The question with Melton is if he can improve his strength and athleticism enough to effectively take advantage of his high defensive I.Q. It won’t help all that much in the NBA to know where to be if he can’t get there, and Melton is not yet an NBA-level athlete.

The biggest concern about Melton is his offense. He’s not a great shooter or ball handler, and he can’t really get his own shot. To be able to take advantage of his defensive upside, he needs to stay on the court. He can’t do that if he’s a liability on offense.

There’s also a little bit of a cloud surrounding Melton because of his proximity to the FBI’s investigation into college basketball. Though Melton said he never personally received any benefits, a close family friend of his received money and improper benefits from USC. Melton took the brunt of the punishment here, which is honestly a bit unfair. USC declared him ineligible as a precaution so that they wouldn’t have to forfeit any games he played in. Melton withdrew from USC in February to focus on preparing for the draft. 

This meant that the NBA Draft Combine was the first chance NBA scouts had to look at him since the 2016-17 college season.

“I think it’s going to be very special what I do,” he said at the Combine. “Some things I do you can’t jot down. I’m a very instinctive and high-I.Q. player that some people may not have. I think that I help every team out and I can be that glue guy for any team.”

He’s not wrong. If Melton focuses on building up his body and doing the little things that his team needs off the bench, he could be a really solid NBA player. If he tries to do too much or gets frustrated and struggles to stay productive in a bench role, he might not stick in the league.  

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De'Anthony Melton Wants To Do The Little Things

37 games, 33.8 MPG, 14.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.2 SPG, 41.5 FG%, 40.2 3P%, 87.6 FT%

Trent is considered a late first-round pick.

It’s hard to say where Gary Trent Jr. is going to go in the draft. The Minnesota native and Duke freshman said at the Combine that he’s been told he can go anywhere from the late lottery to the second round.

It feels like he’s probably more towards the second-round mark than the lottery, but that doesn’t change the intrigue around Trent. In today’s 3-point barrage that is the NBA, Trent could fit in quite well.

In his freshman season, Trent showcased his ability mostly as a scorer, averaging 14.5 points per game while shooting 40.2 percent from deep on 6.5 attempts per game.

Trent says he’s just scratching the surface and wasn’t able to fully showcase all of his skills during his freshman season at Duke.

“I would say play make a little more than I was able to showcase,” Trent said in Chicago. “More off the dribble . . . Facilitate as well.”

At the NBA level, Trent Jr. has the potential to be a spot-up shooter and a guy who can come around screens. He’s a knock-down shooter and he’s well aware of that, something that caused questionable shots in his freshman season.

Trent was able to catch fire from deep in a hurry at Duke, hitting three or more 3-pointers in 15 of 37 games.

He’s not a player who will beat the defender off the dribble and doesn’t have the big burst to get to the basket. And that’s fine because he knows this. He doesn’t force drives, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he developed a post game with how physical he is. At the NBA level, he should be a very good shooter and if there is more to his game as a facilitator, this would be an added bonus for whoever drafts him.

The problem with Trent is on the defensive end. He gets caught watching the ball and isn’t athletic enough to guard offensive-talented wings. If Trent doesn’t see the floor early in his career, it will be because of his defense, not his offense.

You can’t talk about Trent without talking about his father, Gary Trent Sr. The elder Trent was the 11th-overall pick in the 1995 draft and in nine seasons, he averaged 8.6 points and 4.5 rebounds per game as one of the NBA’s tough guys inside. He was only 6’8, but he played a whole lot bigger. Wolves fans are familiar with Trent considering he played in Minnesota from 2001-2004, including Minnesota’s 2003-04 Western Conference Championship run.

As we noted with Aaron Holiday, having a family member with experience in the league can only help a young up-and-coming prospect.

“It’s great. The connections he has, the way he can talk to me about certain things, it’s almost as if I have a cheat sheet in a sense just with all the connections and everyone I know,” Trent said. “I got guys he used to play with who are like uncles to me. It’s great. I have a great supporting cast.”

Trent is the exact opposite player than his dad was, but having his father as a tool throughout this process will help with things rookies deal with for the first time: Long road stretches, the grind of an NBA schedule and the business of basketball.

We could see Trent go at No. 20. Or we could see him get picked at No. 40. The draft is a weird thing.

gary-trent-jr-will-make-the-nba-but-not-by-playing-like-his-dad

Gary Trent Jr. Will Make The NBA, But Not By Playing Like His Dad

24 games, 36.4 MPG, 18.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.8 SPG, 1.0 BPG, 41.6 FG%, 38.0 3P%, 82.1 FT%

Okogie will likely be a first-round pick, but is unlikely to be selected in the lottery. 

NBA players are not going to enjoy playing against Josh Okogie. 

Okogie is a disruptor. He’s a big, athletic, shooting guard who doesn’t back down from competition, plays hard every possession, and takes defense personally. His seven-foot wingspan helps him cut off passing lanes, and his strength helps him bully smaller guards. He understands defensive schemes, and he’s a smart help defender with shot-blocking ability. There’s little question about his ability to defend in the NBA.

There’s no question Okogie has NBA-level athleticism. He led the combine in max vertical leap and three-quarter sprint, and finished near the top in standing vertical. His lane agility time wasn’t great, but with some more conditioning and training under his belt, he’ll certainly be able to hang with NBA athletes.

The big question with Okogie is how effectively his offense, especially his three-point shooting, will translate to the next level. He shot 38 percent on 4.2 attempts per game from three last year with Georgia Tech. That’s not exactly elite, and his form is a little funky with a fairly low release point that could make it harder to shoot in the NBA. However, he’s solid enough that a team that trusts in its ability to help Okogie with his jumper will absolutely take a chance on him.

Okogie also has an offensive game outside of his three-point shooting. He’s averaged 2.3 offensive rebounds last year, and he’s a great cutter off the ball. He’s also shown a nice ability to hit from midrange off the bounce. He isn’t a go-to scorer, and he has some trouble creating his own looks, but if he plays with someone who is able to put him in good positions, Okogie can absolutely finish. Okogie was also great at getting to the line in college—using his strength to bully his defenders into committing fouls. He might not get as many whistles in the NBA, but it’s a good sign that he’s willing to assert himself.

The NBA is enamored with “3 and D” prospects right now, and Okogie fits that mold. If he can stay on the floor, he could easily develop into the type of defensive glue guy that holds a team together: think Wesley Matthews or Marcus Smart. However, his shot needs to fall. Okogie might not be able to play much right away because of his jumper, but give him a few years to develop his three-point skills, and improve his defense from great to elite, and he’ll have a long NBA career.

Okogie won’t be the sexiest pick on draft night, but he has an opportunity to make a front office look very smart down the line.

josh-okogie-wants-to-shut-down-your-stars

Josh Okogie Wants To Shut Down Your Stars

37 games, 28.4 MPG, 11.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 55.6 FG%, 45.0 3P%, 71.7 FT%

Zhaire Smith can fly. He’s one of those players who just hangs in the air like gravity doesn’t affect him. Watching Smith dunk is mesmerizing—he attacks the rim with a combination of ferocity and grace that you just don’t see every day, even in the NBA.

I’m calling it now, Smith is winning a dunk contest before his NBA career is over.

But it’s not Smith’s highlight reel potential that makes him such an intriguing prospect, it’s his defense. Smith is strong enough to guard small forwards, and fast enough to stay with guards, and his lateral speed helps him recover if he makes a mistake. He’s exactly the type of tenacious defender you want on your team to guard players like Steph Curry and James Harden.

Smith creates turnovers too. He blocks shots at an elite rate for a 6’5 guard, and he averaged 1.1 steals per game as well. He’s a smart help defender, and his ability to hang in the air throws off opposing players’ timing. He can rise up and alter shots from farther away than most players, and he’s fast on close-outs as well, and a great rebounder for a guard.

On offense, Smith is a decent facilitator, and he’s shown he can hit shots on offense, but his biggest advantage is going to be as an off-ball threat. Smith cuts hard to the basket, and his vertical ability adds a three-dimensional element to his game that literally puts him on another level. He’ll be able to catch lobs and finish put backs that his opposition simply can’t get to. Play him alongside an elite NBA passer and he could put up some numbers.

Where it gets a little rockier for Smith is his ability to create his own shot unassisted. He’s a good finisher, and he has a few dribble moves at his disposal, but he might have trouble with smarter defenders who can match up with him athletically. Smith spoke at the combine about becoming a better ball-handler, and eventually being able to play the guard spots as well as small forward, if he can do that he might turn into a draft-day steal.

Smith also needs to get more confident in his jumper. He shot 45 percent from three in college, but he only attempted 1.1 three-pointers per game. If Smith is paired with a coach who can help him get his shooting mechanics to a place that he feels more comfortable with, he could be a really great player. The thought of Smith with a knock-down three-point ability is scary. If defenders play him too tightly he has the ability to blow by them or go straight over them.

There will certainly be an NBA team who recognizes that Smith is a one-of-a-kind athlete and makes him their selection. NBA fans should expect to see Smith making Sports Center Top 10 lists regularly. 

zhaire-smith-is-the-nbas-next-human-highlight-reel

Zhaire Smith Is The NBA's Next Human Highlight Reel

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