nba draft lottery

Ryan Kostecka

After a month and a half of speculation, the Utah Jazz learned their draft fate on Tuesday evening.&nbsp;

Already owning the No. 16 (Minnesota) and No. 28 (Philadelphia) picks in the draft via trades with Minnesota and Brooklyn, respectively, the Jazz also had an outside chance at the No. 1 overall pick (4.5%) and a top-four pick (20.3%). In the end, the Jazz stayed right where they were at and will have the No. 9 pick in the 2023 NBA Draft.

In what's expected to be a loaded draft class by most analysts, Utah is expected to get immediate help with the No. 9 pick.

The Jazz have never had the top pick in the draft but have had 10 lottery picks since 2000. The highest selection they've ever had came in 1980 when they chose Darrell Griffith at No. 2. Utah has selected eight times in the top-10, choosing Deron Williams (2005) and Enes Freedom (2011) with the No. 3 pick, and Dante Exum (2014) with the No. 5 pick.

The last time the Jazz had a top-12 pick was in 2016, choosing Taurean Prince, but they traded him to Atlanta. Utah also had the No. 12 pick in 2015, picking Trey Lyles.

The good news for the Jazz is that they already have a well-established nucleus after an exciting past season.&nbsp;

Head coach Will Hardy, the second-youngest in the league, proved far more wise than his years. He took a team expected to finish near the bottom of the standings and had them in play-in contention until the final games of the season.&nbsp;

Lauri Markkanen emerged as a bonafide star, being named to his first All-Star game and then chosen as a starter in a breakout season. As Utah's No. 1 option, he averaged career-highs in points (25.6), shot attempts (17.3), field goal percentage (49.9%), free throw percentage (87.5%), assists (1.9), and minutes (34.4). He also averaged 8.6 rebounds per game, 39.2% from three, and 58.6% effective field goal percentage, all the second-most in his career.

Walker Kessler, acquired in a trade with Minnesota last offseason, took over as the starting center midway through the season and never looked back. The All-Rookie First Team member averaged 11.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.7 blocks in his 40 starts, becoming the first rookie in 25 years to record at least four games of 7+ blocks, trailing Tim Duncan's five times in 1998.

Much like Kessler, Ochai Agbaji was another offseason addition last year who emerged late in his rookie season. He averaged 7.9 points and 2.1 rebounds in 20.5 minutes per game, shooting 35.5% from beyond the arc — but those numbers were drastically better late in the season when he averaged 13.9 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 2.4 assists per game over March and April.&nbsp;

With that core expected to return along with other role players such as Kelly Olynyk, Collin Sexton, Rudy Gay, and Simone Fontecchio, the Jazz won't have to rely on their rookie class for immediate, game-changing production. But make no mistake, the vibes are high in Utah, and the expectation continues to grow.&nbsp;

Season tickets for the 2023-24 season are on sale now. Call or text 801-355-DUNK to reserve your seats or click HERE to shop online.

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Utah Stays Put, Will Have The No. 9, 16, And 28 Picks In The 2023 NBA Draft

Alright, Jazz Nation, how much faith do you have in ping-pong balls?

One of the most important offseason dates is quickly approaching as Utah will find out where its first-round draft pick lands during the NBA Lottery on Tuesday, May 16 at 6:00 p.m. MT on ESPN.

For those who don't understand the complicated process of the draft lottery — which I'm guessing is somewhere around 97.3% of basketball fans — here's a breakdown of the process and what Jazz Nation can expect.&nbsp;

WHAT IS THE DRAFT LOTTERY?The draft lottery is the process that is used to determine the first four picks in the NBA draft, and applies to the seven teams with the worst record from each conference to be seeded 1-14 (1 being the worst record, 14 being the best).&nbsp;

The team with the&nbsp; lowest win percentage in the regular season will receive no worse than the No. 5 pick in the draft. The teams with the three worst records will all have the same chance of winning the lottery and picking No. 1 overall . After the first four teams' drawings are complete, picks 5-14 will go in inverse order of the teams’ regular season record.&nbsp;

HOW DOES IT WORK?Yes, they use actual ping pong balls.

Teams 1-14 will be assigned certain four-number combinations to determine their pick, all of which will be done in a private room off-camera and be overseen by a representative from the accounting firm Ernst & Young.

Fourteen ping-pong balls (numbered 1-14) will be placed in a lottery machine and mixed for 20 seconds before a ball is pulled out. The remaining 13 balls will be spun for 10 seconds before removing another ball. The same will be done with 12 balls (10-second spin) and 11 balls (10-second spin) to determine the combination. Whichever team has that combination will receive the No. 1 overall pick.&nbsp;

The exact process will be repeated three more times to determine picks 2-4. If a previously chosen team is chosen again, that combination is discarded, and the process will repeat itself.&nbsp;

There are 1,001 possible combinations, with 1,000 of those combinations assigned to the participating teams. If the one combination not assigned to a team is chosen, it is discarded, and the process repeats itself.&nbsp;

WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GETTING THE #1 PICK?Restructured before the 2019 draft to discourage tanking, the three teams with the lowest winning percentage will all have the same odds of receiving the No. 1 overall pick. Teams 4-14 will then have that percentage drop in order of record.

ORDER | TEAM | RECORD | No. 1 PICK % | POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS

1.) Detroit Pistons | 17-65 | 14.0% | 140 combinations2.) Houston Rockets | 22-60 | 14.0% | 140 combinations3.) San Antonio Spurs | 22-60 | 14.0% | 140 combinations4.) Charlotte Hornets | 27-55 | 12.5% | 125 combinations5.) Portland Trailblazers | 33-49 | 10.5% | 105 combinations6.) Orlando Magic | 34-48 | 9.0% | 90 combinations7.) Indiana Pacers | 35-47 | 6.8% | 68 combinations8.) Washington Wizards | 35-47 | 6.7% | 67 combinations9.) Utah Jazz | 37-45 | 4.5% | 45 combinations10.) Dallas Mavericks | 38-44 | 3.0% | 30 combinations11.) Chicago Bulls | 40-42 | 1.8% | 18 combinations12.) Oklahoma City | 40-42 | 1.7% | 17 combinations13.) Toronto Raptors | 41-41 | 1.0% | 10 combinations14.) New Orleans Pelicans | 42-40 | 0.5% | 5 combinations

WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US?Since 2000, nine teams with single-digit percentage odds won the lottery and got the No. 1 overall pick — a good sign for the Jazz.&nbsp;

2019 | New Orleans Pelicans | 6.0%2014 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.7%2011 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.8%2008 | Chicago Bulls | 1.7%2007 | Portland Trailblazers | 5.3%2006 | Toronto Raptors | 8.8%2005 | Milwaukee Bucks | 6.3%2002 | Houston Rockets | 8.9%2000 | New Jersey Nets | 4.4%

On the other hand, the most recent years don't paint&nbsp; the most promising picture. Seven of the past eight drafts have resulted in a team with the best odds getting the No. 1 overall pick — with the only exception being the Pelicans in 2019 (6% chance | Zion Williamson).&nbsp;

FINALLY, WHAT ABOUT THE JAZZ?First and foremost, Jazz Nation should hope that Collin Sexton — Utah's representative at the draft lottery — has his pockets stuffed with those lucky $2 he talked about and that a 4.5% chance turns into the No. 1 overall pick.&nbsp;

While that number seems unlikely, Utah has a 20.3% chance of being chosen in the lottery and giving themselves a top-4 pick. While it's not No. 1, it's a very nice consolation prize in a draft that experts predict to be one of the deepest of the century.&nbsp;

The Jazz have never had the top pick in the draft, but did choose Darrell Griffith at No. 2 in 1980. They’ve selected eight times in the top-10, choosing Deron Williams (2005) and Enes Freedom (2011) with the No. 3 pick.&nbsp;

Although Utah didn’t have any picks in last year’s lottery, a savvy offseason landed them Ochai Agbaji and Walker Kessler in separate trades. Agabji came on strong over the second half of the year, while Kessler was named to the All-NBA Rookie First Team.

HOW DO I WATCH?When: Tuesday, May 16Where: Chicago, IllinoisTime: 6 p.m. MTTV: ESPN

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Everything To Know About The Jazz And The NBA Draft Lottery

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The numbers held true. As much as I like numbers, though, this was one time I was hoping to buck the odds. However, Utah’s most likely draft position entering the night was at No. 5—and that is exactly where the Jazz ended up in the draft.

Now the fun begins. Obviously, everyone wanted to break the top three, with Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Paker and Joel Embiid. However, if there were ever a draft to be at No. 5 this may be the one.  

At the beginning of the year this was known as a once-in-a-decade draft, and the hype was there for a reason. Each of the top eight players in this draft has a special skill. The players sitting 4–8 all have something that makes you say, “Wow!”

Over the last few months, the skills of these players have been dissected over and over, and now the focus is on their weaknesses. While those negatives are true in some cases, the amazing skills that made this a once-in-a-lifetime draft have not disappeared.  

Over the next month, what is going to be incredible is trying to figure out what the Jazz are going to do.  The Jazz already have a player at each of the five positions with Burke, Burks, Hayward, Favors and Kanter, so where do they draft the next young player?  

Would they draft a bigger, stronger point guard in Marcus Smart? Do the Jazz go for the incredible athlete Aaron Gordon, who could play either forward spot and could defend any position? What about the low-post scoring threat of Julius Randle? Is there a chance that Australian Dante Exum could slip beyond his expected No. 4 slot to the Jazz at No. 5?  

The Jazz will have to make numerous decisions. If they are going to go with a big, who do they like the most? Indiana’s Noah Vonleh, Randle or Gordon? Do they like Smart, and could he compliment Burke and Burks? Maybe the biggest decisions the Jazz will have to make is what weaknesses can be overcome. Gordon and Smart’s lack of shooting, or Randle’s lack of size in the post.

Another name to keep an eye is 6’10” 223-pound Croatian Dario Saric, who was terrific in Europe over the last month and is the best shooter of the group.

It’s going to be an incredible next 30-plus days, and we haven’t even started to mention our second first-round pick. 

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An Optimistic View at Pick #5

Jazz fans have been waiting for this day for months, and now the NBA Lottery has finally arrived. The lottery will begin at 6 p.m. MT and will be broadcast on ESPN. Here are a few tips—a lottery viewer’s guide, if you will—on what to expect (and hope for) from a Utah Jazz perspective.

1)     You want to hear every team announced in their designated order. So you want to hear: Phoenix,  Minnesota, New York, Denver, New Orleans, Cleveland, Detroit, Sacramento, Los Angeles Lakers and Boston (in that specific order).

2)     If a team is not announced in the correct order, it has two impacts. First, it means one of the top three picks have been filled by that team. Secondly, it pushes the Jazz down a spot. So if one team goes out of order, then the Jazz are sitting at the No. 5 spot. If two teams have gone out of order, the Jazz have been pushed to the No. 6 spot.

3)     Paying attention to how many teams have jumped up into the top 3, the big moments come in the two picks prior to the Jazz originally designated pick. The Jazz are at No. 4 but are most likely to go No. 5, so watch the No. 5 pick. If a team behind them has already jumped up and the Jazz are not selected with the No. 5 pick, then they are in the top 3. If two teams have jumped up, then the pick to watch is the No. 6 pick.

4)     If no teams jump in front of the Jazz and you don’t hear the Jazz at No. 4, they are in the top 3.

5)     Here are some odds to follow as the night goes on:

viewers-guide-to-the-2014-nba-draft-lottery

Viewer's Guide to the 2014 NBA Draft Lottery

For most of the world, this Tuesday in May is just another day on the calendar. It’s just a random weekday in which the most important decision will be what to eat for lunch. It’s nothing special, and it even falls on the most neglected day of the week—nobody cares about Tuesday.

Oh, but for NBA fans this is a day that we’ve been waiting for. It’s been circled and highlighted in bright colors since we bought our calendars for 75% off.

It’s the draft lottery. Perhaps the most important event on the NBA agenda all year long.  The bounce of ping-pong balls can shape and alter the course of a franchise like nothing else can. It will undoubtedly leave fans crying tears of euphoria or heartache.

What if the Vancouver Grizzlies would have won the coveted rights to Tim Duncan in 1997?  Would we have a four-time champion residing in Canada? They did have the best odds, after all.

That’s what so great about the lottery … anyone can win it.

How often does the team with the best odds actually go home with top prize? And, more importantly for Jazz fans, how often does the team slotted in the fourth position move up? Or down?

These are questions you’re definitely interested in knowing the answers to.  Luckily for you, we’ve done the research and created the go-to infographic for Jazz fans.

It’s not always pretty, and the numbers won’t lie. It’s true that the teams slotted into the fourth position going into the lottery have ended up with the fifth pick more than any other. But moving up into the top three is a common occurrence.

Have a look and get your lucky rabbit’s foot ready!

Where do you think the Jazz will land in the Draft Lottery? Leave your prediction in the comments below.

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Infographic: Draft Lottery History of the 4th Spot

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