Alright, Jazz Nation, how much faith do you have in ping-pong balls?
One of the most important offseason dates is quickly approaching as Utah will find out where its first-round draft pick lands during the NBA Lottery on Tuesday, May 16 at 6:00 p.m. MT on ESPN.
For those who don't understand the complicated process of the draft lottery — which I'm guessing is somewhere around 97.3% of basketball fans — here's a breakdown of the process and what Jazz Nation can expect.
WHAT IS THE DRAFT LOTTERY?
The draft lottery is the process that is used to determine the first four picks in the NBA draft, and applies to the seven teams with the worst record from each conference to be seeded 1-14 (1 being the worst record, 14 being the best).
The team with the lowest win percentage in the regular season will receive no worse than the No. 5 pick in the draft. The teams with the three worst records will all have the same chance of winning the lottery and picking No. 1 overall . After the first four teams' drawings are complete, picks 5-14 will go in inverse order of the teams’ regular season record.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
Yes, they use actual ping pong balls.
Teams 1-14 will be assigned certain four-number combinations to determine their pick, all of which will be done in a private room off-camera and be overseen by a representative from the accounting firm Ernst & Young.
Fourteen ping-pong balls (numbered 1-14) will be placed in a lottery machine and mixed for 20 seconds before a ball is pulled out. The remaining 13 balls will be spun for 10 seconds before removing another ball. The same will be done with 12 balls (10-second spin) and 11 balls (10-second spin) to determine the combination. Whichever team has that combination will receive the No. 1 overall pick.
The exact process will be repeated three more times to determine picks 2-4. If a previously chosen team is chosen again, that combination is discarded, and the process will repeat itself.
There are 1,001 possible combinations, with 1,000 of those combinations assigned to the participating teams. If the one combination not assigned to a team is chosen, it is discarded, and the process repeats itself.
WHAT ARE THE ODDS OF GETTING THE #1 PICK?
Restructured before the 2019 draft to discourage tanking, the three teams with the lowest winning percentage will all have the same odds of receiving the No. 1 overall pick. Teams 4-14 will then have that percentage drop in order of record.
ORDER | TEAM | RECORD | No. 1 PICK % | POSSIBLE COMBINATIONS
1.) Detroit Pistons | 17-65 | 14.0% | 140 combinations
2.) Houston Rockets | 22-60 | 14.0% | 140 combinations
3.) San Antonio Spurs | 22-60 | 14.0% | 140 combinations
4.) Charlotte Hornets | 27-55 | 12.5% | 125 combinations
5.) Portland Trailblazers | 33-49 | 10.5% | 105 combinations
6.) Orlando Magic | 34-48 | 9.0% | 90 combinations
7.) Indiana Pacers | 35-47 | 6.8% | 68 combinations
8.) Washington Wizards | 35-47 | 6.7% | 67 combinations
9.) Utah Jazz | 37-45 | 4.5% | 45 combinations
10.) Dallas Mavericks | 38-44 | 3.0% | 30 combinations
11.) Chicago Bulls | 40-42 | 1.8% | 18 combinations
12.) Oklahoma City | 40-42 | 1.7% | 17 combinations
13.) Toronto Raptors | 41-41 | 1.0% | 10 combinations
14.) New Orleans Pelicans | 42-40 | 0.5% | 5 combinations
WHAT DOES HISTORY TELL US?
Since 2000, nine teams with single-digit percentage odds won the lottery and got the No. 1 overall pick — a good sign for the Jazz.
2019 | New Orleans Pelicans | 6.0%
2014 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 1.7%
2011 | Cleveland Cavaliers | 2.8%
2008 | Chicago Bulls | 1.7%
2007 | Portland Trailblazers | 5.3%
2006 | Toronto Raptors | 8.8%
2005 | Milwaukee Bucks | 6.3%
2002 | Houston Rockets | 8.9%
2000 | New Jersey Nets | 4.4%
On the other hand, the most recent years don't paint the most promising picture. Seven of the past eight drafts have resulted in a team with the best odds getting the No. 1 overall pick — with the only exception being the Pelicans in 2019 (6% chance | Zion Williamson).
FINALLY, WHAT ABOUT THE JAZZ?
First and foremost, Jazz Nation should hope that Collin Sexton — Utah's representative at the draft lottery — has his pockets stuffed with those lucky $2 he talked about and that a 4.5% chance turns into the No. 1 overall pick.
While that number seems unlikely, Utah has a 20.3% chance of being chosen in the lottery and giving themselves a top-4 pick. While it's not No. 1, it's a very nice consolation prize in a draft that experts predict to be one of the deepest of the century.
The Jazz have never had the top pick in the draft, but did choose Darrell Griffith at No. 2 in 1980. They’ve selected eight times in the top-10, choosing Deron Williams (2005) and Enes Freedom (2011) with the No. 3 pick.
Although Utah didn’t have any picks in last year’s lottery, a savvy offseason landed them Ochai Agbaji and Walker Kessler in separate trades. Agabji came on strong over the second half of the year, while Kessler was named to the All-NBA Rookie First Team.
HOW DO I WATCH?
When: Tuesday, May 16
Where: Chicago, Illinois
Time: 6 p.m. MT
TV: ESPN