It has been en vogue since somewhere around the beginning of time to say that it doesn’t matter as much who starts a game as it does who finishes. That’s all well and good, but this line of thinking has the tendency of diminishing the fact that the starting lineup does, in fact, matter quite a bit. And once again the HEAT begin another training camp with tough decisions looming.
“That’s Spo,” Jimmy Butler said. “But I believe he’s great at making everyone successful. Whatever lineup he’s putting out there, it’s for the best chance for us to win games.” Part of the reason for the emphasis on closing is that it’s used in the context of ranking a team’s best players or units. Just because you don’t start, that doesn’t mean you aren’t one of the best players, and vice versa. That sort of thing, dispelling the notion that a certain tier of player *should* be out there at the opening tip. Granted the same should go for who is out there in the final five minutes, where again you should have the best unit, not just the best talent, but that’s an aside. The reason starting lineups matter, beyond not wanting to put yourself in an early hole, is that they set the foundation for your entire rotation. Starting lineups matter because every lineup matters, and your first group is the portal that grants you access to all subsequent collections. It’s always a good thought exercise this time of year to try and build out a lineup card in your head. How does one group flow into the next? You may have a first and second unit in your head, but which lineups are the connective tissue between the two? You might have constructed one perfect group for five minutes, but if the three or four derivations in the following seven minutes are weak, is that one group really worth using at that point in the game? That last paragraph may have lost you, but that’s the point. These are tough decisions that don’t exist in a vacuum. A rotation is a living, breathing organism. Even fully grown, it requires constant pruning and attention. So how is Spoelstra going to shape his bonsai tree? “Spo comes into every training camp open minded,” Bam Adebayo said. “You never know who starts, and as the season goes along you have different starters.”
For the moment, the tone has been set for a wide open camp. Spoelstra likes competition, and he’s not one to hand out spots before evaluating what he has in front of him. Granted he did offer a “certainly, on the first day” response when asked if the lineups are up for grabs outside of Jimmy Butler and Adebayo, but just about anyone could have guessed that. Butler is a multi-time All-Star and marquee offseason acquisition and Adebayo took over as QB1, so to speak, partway through last season. After that, options galore. Power forward as a term doesn’t really mean a whole lot anymore, but as far as to the non-Bam big man out there at the start, Kelly Olynyk is likely the first name to come to mind given that he and Adebayo were the only frontcourt pairing to top 1,000 minutes together last season and they acquitted themselves nicely with a +4.9 per 100 net rating. They make sense, too, with the lob-catching, short-roll playmaker paired next to a true stretch option. Olynyk has been held out of camp with a knee injury suffered during international play during the offseason, but indications are that he’ll return sometime before the regular season begins. If Olynyk isn’t ready to go then Meyers Leonard could theoretically make sense for the same floor-spacing reasons, but he’s also a bit more of a true center and likely to be a crucial piece behind Adebayo where he could also pair with Olynyk at times for super-spread lineups. Then there are both Derrick Jones Jr. and James Johnson who could offer smaller, more flexible options – Spoelstra mentioned testing a Jones Jr. and Bam speed lineup on Day 1 – which the team has used regularly over the years. For now, this is TBD based on Olynyk’s health. Then we have the meat of the discussion, the guards. Let’s forget about the positional designations since all that really matters is skillset. If you’re on the court, the team is going to use that skillset, though with what volume depends on the other players on the court. If Dragić and Justise Winslow are both playing with Jimmy Butler, all three would get opportunities to handle the ball, but fewer than they would in groupings with less playmaking. The same applies for Dion Waiters, a potent partner with Dragić three seasons ago who has yet had a healthy opportunity to recapture that magic. Take the aforementioned Olynyk-Adebayo pairing and add Winslow, Waiters and now-76er Josh Richardson and you have last season’s best lineup (+14.0 per 100 in 121 minutes). The same group with Butler for Richardson could prove to be a major catalyst. Then there’s Tyler Herro, the 19-year old rookie who has all the tools to be the team’s best shooter but will have to “earn it, as he should,” Spoelstra says.
Everyone has an argument. Everyone wants to play. Dragić, however, at 33 and with both All-Star and All-NBA appearances under his belt, has a somewhat pragmatic approach.
“[Starting has] been important, but you have to be realistic and you have to look at all the options,” Dragić said. “It depends how I’m going to feel.
“Last year with that injury, the second part of the year I was coming off the bench and I put some big numbers up. We’ll see.” Which isn’t to say Dragić, ready to compete for his spot, is conceding anything, only that he has a different perspective at a different stage of his career. Whoever ends up where, they’ll so having just seen Dwyane Wade graciously accept a bench role in the final two years of his career, with the man Wade played a part in recruiting ready to speak to the same values.
“Everybody has to sacrifice something,” Butler said. “You may not be happy all the time, but you’re going to have to do what you can to help the team win.” Remember two things. First, the rotation is never settled in October. We may have just finished preaching the importance of starting, but when it comes to the ultimate potential of the team, the postseason potential, the starting group that finishes the season is far more important than the one jumping out of the gates – though the earlier a firm answer is found tends to be better for a playoff race. Second, the layers. Thinking on a rotation can quickly lead you down a Charlie explaining the Pepe Silvia Conspiracy-like rabbit hole. It’s dry. But it’s where teams realize their potential. Teams that matter, teams that have any chance to amount to something in May and June, don’t just win the first or last five. They win entire quarters and halves. They have lineups that can gain a lead followed by ones that can at least sustain one. And they have players who keep all of that in mind, too.
There’s a good team in Miami with potential for more, but to unlock it they’ll have to realize something approaching an idealized rotation. That process starts with the starters.
“When you really focus on the possibilities, that’s where you really get excited about this team,” Spoelstra said.