The Miami HEAT host the New York Knicks Wednesday night at AmericanAirlines Arena. Get your tickets now! Tip-off is set for 7:30 PM, and television coverage is on FOX Sports Sun. You can also listen to the action live on 790 The Ticket.
1: What trends from the early week of the season do you think could continue beyond the opening salvo of games?
Couper Moorhead: There has been a ton of national focus on the increase in league scoring so far, for good reason considering the historic levels we’re currently at, but just as fascinating has been the speed at which teams are playing right now. There are a variety of calculations for overall pace around the web but generally speaking possessions per game are up about five, a massive spike considering five possessions per game is nearly the difference between the fastest and slowest teams in a given year. The HEAT have been no exception, up a whopping seven possessions a game after finishing as the fourth-slowest a year ago – their 103.0 pace would have led the league.
This is all following the recent five or six year trend, essentially since the offensive downturn during the 2011 NBA lockout, and it’s not unusual for the first couple weeks of the season to be faster than the norm as defenses get up to speed, so to speak. But even if games slow down a bit over time, gains as large as this tend to predict gains, however more moderate, for a full season. That means we’re very likely on the precipice of the fastest HEAT season in recent memory, which should be entertaining but will also be a challenge for Miami, and every other team, to maintain their defense.
Joe Beguiristain: In addition to the increased speed that Coup mentioned above, the crazy amount of scoring around the league is also a trend to take note of. Case in point: 14 teams have an offensive rating of 110 or greater, and the No. 1 ranked team last year (the Rockets at 114.0) would be seventh at the moment. Of course it’s a very small sample size, but those numbers are hard to ignore.
In terms of trends for the HEAT, it seems as though the team will continue to take a bunch of 3-pointers. In fact, Miami has taken 34 treys per game as opposed to 30.6 a year ago, and that’s without Wayne Ellington in the lineup.
What's more, after practice on Tuesday, Erik Spoelstra talked about how he wanted Josh Richardson to take more threes on Saturday against the Hornets even though the 25-year-old didn’t play his usual minutes due to foul trouble.
Let it fly.
Couper: They’re playing faster, like everyone else, but it’s too early to read into their fundamental numbers. Roster-wise, Kristaps Porziņģis is still recovering from an ACL injury and isn’t likely to return any time soon, and promising rookie Kevin Knox is on the shelf with an ankle sprain at the moment. Big man Kyle O’Quinn, who gave Miami some issues last year, is now in Indiana, but starting center Enes Kanter and all his paint-scoring talents are still around. The main healthy addition, then, is that of bench scorer Mario Hezonja, the former lottery pick of the Orlando Magic, who is only playing 18 minutes a game but is as liable as anyone on the Knicks, or possibly the Eastern Conference, to explode to hit a few threes in a matter of minutes.
The main change for New York has been the hiring of head coach David Fizdale, who you will all remember as Erik Spoelstra’s longtime assistant who left a few years ago to coach the Memphis Grizzlies. Fizdale has many of the same sensibilities of Spoelstra, focusing on defense and building a strong culture of player development for young players and veterans alike. So even if the Knicks have a few players whose names you might not recognize, know that Fizdale is likely working behind the scenes to make them play in a way that will make you notice them.
Joe: Although the Knicks’ core is largely intact, some new guys have also made a splash. Since Coup already mentioned Mario Hezonja, who has put together a couple strong games thus far, I’ll delve into Allonzo Trier.
Trier, a rookie swingman out of Arizona, can flat out score. Whether it’s pull-up jumpers in the pick-and-roll, aggressive takes to the rack or catch-and-shoot treys, Trier has shown a little bit of everything. And although he had a quiet outing against the Bucks on Monday, he’s still averaging 10.5 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 21.1 minutes per contest.
Otherwise, guys like Damyean Dotson, Noah Vonleh and Trey Burke have also taken advantage of some extended playing time with so many key contributors out. That said, stalwart Tim Hardaway Jr. has absolutely balled out.
After a career year in 2018, the 26-year-old has continued to thrive as the go-to guy with Kristaps Porziņģis hurt. In addition to leading New York in usage rate (31.3 percent), he also paces the team in points (27.0) and 3-pointers (3.5) per game this season.
That's big time.
3: How might Justise Winslow’s return affect the team’s rotation?
Couper: It appears as though Winslow will be the first of Miami’s group of injured rotation players to return to the lineup. Whether he starts or not is unknown, though with Derrick Jones Jr. – the starter in place of either Winslow or James Johnson, presumably – questionable that might mean Winslow gets into the starting group with Hassan Whiteside. Either way, Winslow should be a boost to a Miami defense that has been at times inconsistent, though still in the Top 10 in the league, and his playmaking ability should help produce some clean three-point looks for a team that has so far hit just 31.4 percent from deep, though that number will positively regress over time anyways. Winslow’s return will always help the team, but when everyone returns healthy, assuming the basketball gods allow that to happen, is when we get back to considering those preseason questions about the rotation and who plays, when.
Joe: If Justise Winslow is able to suit up Wednesday, it’ll make a huge difference for the HEAT. Not only would his defensive presence give Miami’s projected starting lineup three bonafide perimeter defenders in himself, Richardson and Rodney McGruder, but his playmaking ability would also make life much easier for his teammates.
While Winslow’s contributions on the court are vital, he also possesses all the intangibles you want. He’s rarely fazed by adversity, leads by example and embodies what it means to be a HEAT player.
That’s a guy you want to go to battle with every night.
Game Notes:
- The HEAT are 1-2, while the Knicks enter the contest at 1-3.
- Miami and New York split the season series at two games apiece last year, with each team winning at home.
- INJURY UPDATE: Justise Winslow (Right Hamstring Tightness) will be active and available to play, Derrick Jones Jr. (Left Foot Bruise) and Wayne Ellington (Left Ankle Soreness) are both doubtful, while James Johnson (Sports Hernia Surgery) and Dion Waiters (Left Ankle Surgery) are still out.
- For the Knicks, Lance Thomas (Sore Left Knee) is probable, Emmanuel Mudiay (Sprained Right Ankle) is questionable and Courtney Lee (Neck Spasms), Kevin Knox (Sprained Left Ankle) and Kristaps Porziņģis (Left Knee) are out.
Efficiencies (Rank):
- HEAT Offense: 105.5 (24)
- HEAT Defense: 106.5 (T-9)
- Knicks Offense: 108.0 (19)
- Knicks Defense: 106.5 (T-9)