1. There aren’t many teams Bam Adebayo is more important against than the Milwaukee Bucks and their unique offensive talent, but with Miami’s starting center sitting due to a hip contusion the HEAT had to go back to their shorthanded gameplan – they did get Josh Richardson back in action – against a team that has made a few changes to their roster.
Instead of Jrue Holiday running point – he’s now in Boston, as we just watched on Friday – it’s Damian Lillard. Instead of Mike Budenholzer on the sideline it’s Adrian Griffin. With Adebayo this would have been a nice preview of how differently the HEAT might have to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo when he’s paired with the over-the-top threat of Lillard. Without him, it was Thomas Bryant getting the starting call and Orlando Robinson getting backup minutes. While Bryant started strong with eight early points, Antetokounmpo (33 points on 21 shots) ran off Milwaukee’s first 10 – including the rare three against Miami – as the teams played to an even 28-28 after the opening period.
A 34-24 second, leading to a 62-52 half, created a separation for the Bucks in what was partially a story of shot quality. The Bucks were getting downhill, either for layups or for open-three kickouts when the defense collapsed. Miami, meanwhile, subsisted in the in between zones, hitting 11-of-23 on non-rim two pointers – always necessary against Milwaukee’s size – behind Tyler Herro’s measure pick-and-roll management. But typically the other half of the formula is that you need some above-the-break threes to fall and the HEAT hit just 3-of-13 in the first half while generating just three attempts in the restricted area (albeit with 14 free-throw attempts).
Just a couple minutes into the third, after a scrambled, broken play led to a Lillard three, the deficit was 17. A few minutes after that, Miami going cold outside the paint, it was 21. Were it not for Herro it felt like the competitive portion of the game was gradually slipping away, but Herro had very little let up, a pair of transition threes keeping the game in the teens rather than the twenties. And yet Milwaukee’s combination of firepower and force was too much, the quarter ending with Miami down 24.
A late flurry of bench threes – including hits from Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Orlando Robinson, with Miami ending up at 38 percent from deep after hovering below 30 most of the night – kept Miami within reasonable chances, within 9 with under five minutes to play after a 13-2 run. Erik Spoelstra elected to stick with the young group, with Herro and including Nikola Jovic getting his first minutes of the night, that made the run while Milwaukee ran prevent offense. Shots kept falling, the Bucks kept hitting the rim, the lead down to six with 1:22 to go. Gas tank ran empty at that point as Milwaukee closed things out despite some odd inbounding turnovers against Miami’s pressure, 122-114 the final, but the younger players having a positive stretch (a 41 point quarter easily qualifies) to hang their hats on this early in the season is far from nothing.
2. One of the moments that has lingered in the mind since last season is Tyler Herro expressing, the day after breaking his hand, his disappointment at not being able to participate in that postseason run. Not only was Herro hungry for a chance to prove himself as a high-usage player on the biggest stage, he felt Milwaukee, with all their drop pick-and-roll coverage, was a series well-suited to his style of play.
A regular season game in October isn’t ever going to prove much, but at the very least this was a pretty strong piece of data in favor of Herro having a point. While Malik Beasley and Pat Connaughton put forth admirable efforts chasing Herro around screens high up the floor, Herro was calm and patient as he kept his defender on his back, snaking his dribble around to his comfort spots in the mid-range – where he shot 9-of-15 including the upper paint. Nobody has ever questioned Herro’s ability to hit short pull-ups, runners and floaters, tonight was just a constant barrage of those looks until he sprung free for those open-floor threes in the third. There wasn’t a ton going towards the rim – he did challenge Brook Lopez for a layup at one point – but that’s life against Milwaukee. Herro just happens to be very good at the things Milwaukee wants to force most players to do.
Ideally you want to balance out Herro’s production with a few more rim attempts by leveraging his gravity, but that’s something to think about next time around when Adebayo is available. Otherwise, tonight was about Herro punishing drop coverage – getting to the free throw line 10 times along the way – and he did everything that was required, finishing with 35 points on 21 shots.
3. While nobody is going to be using this game as a heavy source for previews should these teams meet in the postseason down the road, Griffin did do a couple of scheme-related things that are worth filing away for later.
First, Griffin immediately had Antetokounmpo defending Jimmy Butler from the opening possession. This isn’t an apples-to-apples comparison because Holiday was given the Butler assignment last year and Holiday isn’t on the team anymore – and Antetokounmpo was dealing with a back injury in that series – but Budenholzer nevertheless was often reticent to pursue that matchup despite having success with it during the 2021 series and Griffin leading with it almost felt pointed.
Second, with Butler and Kyle Lowry running early screens to get Butler the post mismatch with Lillard, the Bucks sent early and hard doubles to get the ball out of Butler’s hands – another choice the Bucks rarely made in similar situations in the past.
Finally, less a schematic thing than a personnel thing, but of course the greatest difference tonight was the presence of Lillard (25 points on 14 shots). Miami has rarely, if ever, gone to aggressive pick-and-roll coverages against the Bucks in the past because it was always more important to wall off the rim from Antetokounmpo. But with Lillard running screens, Spoelstra called for a handful of blitzes that led to pocket passes and 4-on-3 situations. That’s a decision every team has been grappling with for years with Lillard and Steph Curry, and it’s yet another new dimension to this series.