1. You aren’t going to see much better displays of offense than what Miami came out of the gate with in Dallas, but the Mavericks are no slouches in that area themselves.
Miami immediately attacked Dallas’ weak point on defense, putting them in empty corner pick-and-rolls and back cutting every defender who dared to turn their heads on their way to a 6-of-6 start, five of those in the restricted area, and eventually a 29-14 lead with five of their first six threes falling. The hot shooting was going to cool, sure, but at that point there were zero indications that Dallas was going to begin stringing together stops. Those stops came, eventually, in the form of the HEAT missing free-throws and turning it over in the passing lanes, and that was enough to bring everything closer together, Miami up just eight despite 71 percent and 85 percent from three shooting splits in the opening period.
Duncan Robinson wasn’t cooling off, though, starting 4-of-4 with plenty of hands in his face, and the HEAT were eventually up to 9-of-11 from three yet only up five at that point. The HEAT never quite lost their grip but the half-court offense started to get just a little more grindy, working a little more against the shot clock as both sides worked into their rotations. Miami by four at the break, the lead not quite reflecting their superior energy, effort and shooting.
Another Robinson (19 points on 7-of-10 shooting) three to open the third, but Miami started to play Dallas’ game a bit, launching quick threes, and eventually things were tied at 65 even with the Mavericks sub-30 percent from deep. Luka Doncic started to really get going at that point, getting to the line after settling for a number of early step-back threes, and Dallas eventually stretched their first lead to five. Then came the zone from Miami, which Doncic immediately answered with a deep catch-and-shoot three. Dallas’ defense kicked into gear, strong-side zone and doubles coming for Jimmy Butler, but a four-point play from Caleb Martin at the end of the quarter managed some serious damage mitigation, Miami down eight headed into the fourth.
Threes still falling for Miami, Terry Rozier (27 points on 17 shots, 5-of-8 from three) keeping his group in it as Martin gave Kyrie Irving trouble on the other end and Butler started taking and making tough jumpers over the help to bring it all back to a tie and an eventual lead on a 9-0 run. A clutch game, of course, Dallas suddenly back up six on a pair of threes – Dante Exum hitting a huge one from the top with time draining – only for Rozier to answer right back with a three of his own. Then Irving answered with a second-chance three in the corner and Rozier missed his answer this time, Miami down seven with a minute to play. Full-court pressure got it back within three, but that was that with the shot clock off and Dallas takes it, 114-108, with a back-to-back in Oklahoma City tomorrow.
2. It didn’t feel like it would be much of a Doncic night as first, but at the end of everything you look up and he has 35 points on 12-of-24 shooting to go with 11 rebounds and 11 assists – in other words the very definition of a Doncic night.
Miami threw a little bit of everything at Doncic, playing him straight-up early – Doncic took plenty of step-back threes during that stretch – and switching perimeter spots while keeping Adebayo in drop coverage, which Adebayo managed well tipping a couple lobs before Doncic finally snuck one in over Adebayo’s head in the second half. Then there were a few zone looks, which Doncic either shot over the top of, manipulated the wings into creating a pick-and-pop for a teammate or whipped a pass to the corner against. We’ve discussed before how difficult Nikola Jokic and LeBron James is to zone and Doncic fits into the same tier unless Dallas is missing their threes.
Then, just as they did against Cade Cunningham on Tuesday night, Miami got more aggressive down the stretch, putting two-on-the-ball with Adebayo blitzing Doncic and other defenders showing out hard to avoid switches. That was how Exum wound up with maybe the shot of the game with just a couple minutes to go, and while getting the ball out of Doncic’s hands helped to create some chaotic situations as Miami attempted to come back in the final minute, Dallas finding their shooting late – they’re an incredibly dififcult team to out-score when they’re near 40 percent, and they finished at 39 from deep to nearly nullify Miami’s eventually 44 percent – created too much of a gap. There’s nothing you can show Doncic that he hasn’t seen at this point, but at the very least Miami kept his free-throws down (4-of-4) and forced him to shoot 7-of-13 from three to keep his efficiency and raw totals up.
3. It’s unusual for an opposing coach to be so specific about something during pregame that they want to focus on in a given matchup, particularly during the regular season, but that’s what Mavericks coach Jason Kidd did before this one, noting that he wanted his team to take away Miami’s corner threes.
It was an interesting comment given that corner threes haven’t been a singular focus for Miami this season and Dallas had set that previous precedent of doubling Butler and Bam Adebayo in the post last year, which tends to induce corner threes with the right ball movement, but taking one of the most valuable shots in the game is generally an understandable goal. Sure enough, Dallas’ coverages for Butler came out, strong-side zones on his post-ups and slow-rolling doubles if the possession was crawling, and with Miami’s screeners crushing off the ball those corner threes came in fast and furious, 10 attempts in the first half and 18 in all – a season high for Miami, with 15 their previous high – as Miami made eight.
There are many questions that we can’t answer here. Maybe Kidd was just playing possum with some pregame gamesmanship. Maybe his team didn’t execute properly on the weak-side rotations. But clearly corner threes weren’t as important to Dallas’ gameplan as disrupting Butler’s night with all that extra attention, and maybe 18 corner attempts in the end was a tradeoff they were willing to make when Butler only scored 14 on 12 shots, and with Miami’s Offensive Rating finishing at just 114.9 even with excellent perimeter shooting means Dallas’ plan worked out well enough regardless of what their pregame whiteboard actually said.