1. You expect a run from the home team in Game 1 of a playoff series, and New York was happy to play to expectations.
The difference between this and the Milwaukee series was immediately noticeable. The Knicks were sending multiple defenders into the paint on just about every HEAT action. That left plenty of threes available for the visitors, but after opening with a few makes from Gabe Vincent – aggressive early and often – they hit a cold stretch without much anywhere to help compensate. Meanwhile, the Knicks were clearly trying to push the pace, with Josh Hart exploding to the rim for an early semi-transition layup, and they were otherwise punishing the paint with Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett. New York led paint points, 40-20, at the break, but the HEAT found themselves down just five despite temporarily trailing by double digits thanks to a hearty smattering of random and/or transition offense.
Two ways you could look at things at that point. Miami was down just five points despite shooting an effective field-goal percentage of 45.7. Normally, that’s a solid indicator. But New York had an eFG themselves of 59.3 despite shooting 18 percent from three. With both sides getting pretty good looks from deep, the Shot Quality meter was tilting the way of the home side – backed up by New York half-court efficiency being markedly better.
Still, if you keep out-shooting your opponent from three you’re always going to give yourself a chance, and after another couple of three – and more New York misses – early in the third we had ourselves a tie game, 61-61. It doesn’t matter if you aren’t shooting as well as you did against Milwaukee as long as you’re still making more than your opponent. A few minutes later, with Kevin Love throwing brilliant outlets for easy scores, it was HEAT by eight – a lead that carried through the first half of the fourth quarter as New York struggled to make shots and the rim attempts dried up.
There was a bit of a scare with five minutes to go when Butler had his ankle rolled and was down on the floor for a number of minutes, though he stayed in the game and Miami took the lead from three back to eight soon after. HEAT take Game 1, 108-101, without too much drama at the close, as they scored 18 more points at the arc.
2. New York might drop Mitchell Robinson back off screens just like Milwaukee does, but the defense from the Knicks couldn’t have been more different otherwise. For starters, Robinson was playing the pick-and-roll significantly higher up the floor than Brook Lopez, conceding space for an attack dribble but not the runway for a full drive. They didn’t dip into the well when it came to outright sending doubles Butler’s direction, but you could tell the help was loaded up and ready to go – from the strong-side corner or across the paint – on any push towards the rim. And of course there was the third defender sliding over to swipe at pocket passes and disrupt Bam Adebayo’s rhythm. Long story short, New York was bringing help and packing the paint, which was why Miami was on pace for 50+ attempts from deep through most of the first half.
It took a little more creativity to get Butler (25 points on 15 shots, 11 rebounds) going, then. His first three scores all came from post seals and over-the-top looks on his way to the rim, similar to how he closed out the fourth quarter in Game 5 against the Bucks. All off-ball work. During Miami’s big run in the third quarter, Love threw some outlet passes that maybe only a handful of players in league history could throw, but he also threw them because he trusted Butler to catch them.
This series isn’t going to look like that last one, both for the HEAT and for Butler as a scorer, but Butler is so smart he can still find his shots while veterans like Love and Kyle Lowry set the table for him.
3. Miami doesn’t win this game without Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent. With Tyler Herro out, shot creation from that pair has been a requirement and they’ve been answering the call for two weeks now. Vincent was looking for his shot from the word go, just as he did in Game 5, comfortable taking the pull-up off screens just as he was off the catch. His 6-of-16 isn’t prettiest stat line he’ll ever have, but 5-of-12 from three is more than enough to keep the train moving forward. Lowry was as creative as ever, shedding defenders with up fakes and then leaning back on two feet just to get shots off when they jump. As with Vincent, 15 points on 12 shots isn’t going to blow anyone away, but 3-of-6 from three, the most important shots, was huge.
The defense was there, too. New York was getting so many good looks through three quarters but as the game wore on and they continued to fight from behind, the brute force, deliberate drives started to become a bit more desperate than within the flow. There were forced jump balls. Strips. Stonewalled attacks. Bam Adebayo was brilliant with his rotations around the rim, but Vincent and Lowry were just as much of a reason for why New York’s paint points dropped from 40 to 22 in the second half.