1. The first half of this game isn’t going to be winning any blue ribbons at the state fair, that’s for sure, but the finish was one of the HEAT’s best.
This may have been a rematch of the 2020 NBA Finals, minus Jimmy Butler, but what a matchup looks like on paper doesn’t matter once the clock starts and from that moment this was as much of a regular season grind as any we’ve seen this year. Miami wasn’t playing their best basketball, certainly not shooting their best, but they were the more active, energetic group, sharper where the Los Angeles Lakers were dull. After six minutes the Lakers had six turnovers – a combination of Miami’s disruptive defensive philosophy and some remarkably poor passing – and it didn’t get much better from there as they finished the first quarter with 10 giveaways while shooting 0-of-7 from three. Miami’s offense wasn’t there in the halfcourt, but they took those steals and did what they needed to do, eventually pushing the lead to double digits and forcing the Lakers to play from behind while stalled out by the zone.
Behind positive minutes from Nikola Jovic (2-of-4 from three in the first half, running a few breaks) and a late surge from Tyler Herro (13 points on 12 shots in the first half) Miami led 53-45 at the break despite making just 41 percent of their shots. You don’t have to play your best basketball every night to win, you just have to play better basketball than the other guys. LeBron James (12 points on 18 shots) was just 2-of-9, the zone loading up the paint against him as his shooters failed to convert.
Proceedings did not exactly upgrade in their execution in the second half, the Lakers reaching 19 turnovers midway through the third, as Miami remained up nine – a margin that could have been twice as much had more threes fallen or had they capitalized on more of their many fast-break opportunities. The zone remained productive with the Lakers missing from outside, but just as it was against the Clippers Monday night the opposition slowly started to find a groove against the coverage, this time Anthony Davis (29 points on 17 shots) getting comfortable at the nail, enough to have Los Angeles within five after three.
A nice start to the fourth, a couple threes falling and offensive boards rewarding to get Miami back up 10 after the Lakers had closed it to two. Both teams just needed one guy to get hot to take the night, and Duncan Robinson (11 points in the fourth) was more than happy to oblige in this one, transforming what had been one of his worst shooting performances of the season into a game-winning one. Some nights you win ugly, and two weeks later nobody remembers it as anything but a win, tonight going 110-96 in favor of Miami as all eight players in the regular rotation hit double figures capped off by Jaime Jaquez Jr. hitting a tough turnaround over James on the block.
2. Through three quarters the story was Los Angeles fighting both themselves and Miami’s defensive positioning, multiple feet in the paint at all times when an attacker had the ball, as the turnovers mounted. Perhaps most important, more than half of those were of the live-ball variety. Miami averages 7.5 steals per game, tonight the almost doubled that up with 14. Had the HEAT’s transition efficiency been better – they missed a number of open threes on advantage breaks – this would not have been as close as it was early in the final period.
But as it has happened so often, those turnovers dried up in the fourth quarter, which has partially been the case for the HEAT’s fourth quarter struggles as they’ve faced more field-goal attempts as the game slows down the stretch. Tonight, the past was irrelevant as Miami outscored the Lakers 38-29 in that final period, one of their best of the season as the threes started to fall and the energy kept up, Miami’s offense moving and shaking while the Lakers spent precious seconds staring down defensive formations, forcing little movement and fewer rotations. The HEAT were playing the better game for much of the night without the results that typically comes from that designation, but as they continued to play the better game the tide turned. Robinson got things started with those early-fourth splashes and Jaquez Jr. (16 points on 14 shots) may have followed up at just the right time with some makes of his own, including that score over James that you’ll see all over social media on Thursday, but it was the way Miami played, precise and mistake free, that allowed the make-or-miss (38.1 percent from three by the close) to stretch the lead.
3. Basketball analysts have for years debated how much control a defense has over the opposing percentages from deep, and the only thing everyone can really agree on is that it’s at least more control than they have over opposing free-throw percentages.
So what, then, do we make of Los Angeles’ futility from deep – 4-of-30 for 13.3 percent – tonight? Do we give credit to the HEAT for their activity, contests and closeouts? Do we blame the Lakers for missing a variety of good, open looks? The answer is always a little bit of both. The Lakers are not a particularly good three-point shooting team, and were without one of their better shooters in D’Angelo Russell, so it made perfect sense that Miami would go back to their zone (a season high 47 possessions of it, allowing 0.78 ppp) to force the Lakers to take spot-up looks rather than deal with James getting downhill. Davis eventually forced Miami out of that zone with his middle catches, for a short stretch at least, but by that point the Lakers were underwater from the perimeter and they kept missing, regardless, against the man-to-man. Did Miami force James into 0-of-6 from three? Probably not. James took the same slow-roll pull-up threes he usually takes, and missed them. But with Taurean Prince going 0-of-5 and Max Christie going 2-of-9 the HEAT defense was much more attentive, and that’s the sort of thing you control regardless of scheme.
No defense can fully control what threes they give up to who, and one of the worst shooting nights – only two teams have shot worse on 30 attempts this year – is an outlier for any group, but you take the make-or-miss as it comes – for about six weeks Miami was giving up far higher percentages than their defensive Shot Quality would have projected – and remain consistent elsewhere. Tonight, Miami won largely because they were +36 points from the arc, and credit ultimately doesn’t matter.