1. The HEAT have played the Bulls three times this season. There have been injuries in all of them. Players in health and safety protocols. There’s not enough to make a truly accurate assessment of this matchup. But from the information we have on hand, including Monday’s 112-99 Miami victory, there’s really no other verdict to draw, temporary though it may be, that the HEAT have definitively been the better team. They’ve been sharper, they’ve played harder, they’ve been smarter, they’ve posed more problem and had more solutions. And certainly, like most anyone else, you aren’t getting far against Miami’s defense shooting 7-of-29 from three.
We can dig down as deep as we want on the various reasons for this, why Chicago doesn’t have the pick-and-roll coverages or the wing defenders that typically give the HEAT problems, why the Bulls haven’t had the processing speed to consistently get a step ahead of Miami’s rotations, or why Miami is able to slow a player on an offensive tear like DeMar DeRozan (18 points on 16 shots), but sometimes things don’t have to be overly complicated. Until the Bulls change the nature of the conversation – and they certainly have the talent to do so, plus some reinforcements on the way that fix a few of what ails them in this matchups – the HEAT have had the upper hand.
2. Back in November when the HEAT were trying to close out the Bulls on the road, they did so behind a 16-point fourth-quarter effort from Gabe Vincent. He apparently still had some left over for February as he scored 20 on 13 shots. Chicago’s more conservative style of defense may fit well for a pull-up shooter, but there’s no denying that Vincent has played some of his best basketball against one of the top teams in the conference. There aren’t many luxuries greater than having role players who can seamlessly step into the starting lineup and assume a larger role, and higher usage, at a moment’s notice, and so often when Kyle Lowry has been out Vincent has been ready to provide his own brand of spark. It’s not all just jumpers, either. When Vincent gets going, he’s getting into the paint, probing the defense, making plays and finding soft spots when he can score. He doesn’t have to provide what Lowry does, he just has to make an impact. The next test for him is learning the speed and physicality of the postseason.
3. The most important player on the floor, for either side, should these teams meet in the postseason, might be Nikola Vucevic. DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine can mismatch hunt and hit tough shots, but Vucevic is Chicago’s best path to generating consistent paint pressure either by rolling into or trying to seal off and post the switch if Bam Adebayo ends up on the ballhandler. And on a couple possessions, the Bulls pinged the ball around to the right angles, Vucevic got the seal, and they got an easy two. But on far more others, the HEAT would force a tough catch and immediately bring help along the baseline – nearly each time causing a turnover or an on-the-heels retreat pass. Like most teams, the Bulls started reading Miami’s aggressive help better as the game wore on, but they never got their big (14 points on 14 shots) rolling in the way that he can.
And on the other end, Vucevic is not the type of center who typically creates problems for the HEAT. He’s not the quickest, so he plays back on pick-and-roll and handoffs, dropping into the paint. That means a Duncan Robinson or Tyler Herro is going to have daylight for a three anytime they can run their defender into a screen. And as Adebayo improves as a self-creating scorer, Vucevic is going to have trouble staying in front of him in the post. Adebayo was also a jab move or quick catch-and-go from getting into the paint. Vucevic is an All-Star center and has certainly given Miami all sorts of problems in the past, but Miami isn’t going to let him get to his strength on one end while forcing him into a ton of actions on the other. This relationship is going to lead a playoff preview if it comes down to that.
-Next Up For Miami: Wednesday – March 2, 2022 – 8:00pm ET – at Milwaukee, WI. Watch It Live On NBA League Pass