Coup's Notebook Vol. 44: Miami's Lob History, Pincer Attacks, Coverage Fortitude And So, So Many Clutch Games

The Miami HEAT are 32-25 with a Net Rating of +0.2, No. 18 in the NBA. They have the No. 5 Defensive Rating and No. 26 Offensive Rating. With two games left before the All-Star break, here’s what we’ve been noting and noticing.

LOB CITY

The HEAT saved themselves from a tough loss against the Houston Rockets with a wonderful out of bounds set from Erik Spoelstra, a perfect pass from Gabe Vincent and a bouncy finish from Jimmy Butler. Spoelstra said afterwards that it’s a play he’s been saving since Chris Quinn used it during a scrimmage in the Orlando bubble, with it being marked as ‘CQ’ on his playcard ever since.

It’s a smart design to be sure. Max Strus splits the screeners up the middle of the floor. Bam Adebayo does the classic Spoelstra thing of clearing the paint with a baseline run. Butler moves last once the defense has already seen movement elsewhere, and everything works perfectly.

But if you keep watching it a few times, you start to notice how funny the entire thing is. First, nobody actually sets a screen during the set. They’re supposed to, but with how the Rockets played, or didn’t play, things, there’s nobody to screen. Not a single player makes real contact. Except, inadvertently, for Adebayo.

Want to know the exact moment where Ralph Wiggum’s heart breaks? Right here.

Rockets beat writer Jonathan Feigen noted that Rockets coach Stephen Silas explicitly told his team not to switch on this play. But see No. 15 along the baseline? That’s Daishen Nix, who switched a screen that was never set as Strus slipped out to make his run to the arc. With everyone else under instructions not to switch, that’s where the HEAT had already won. At the very least, Strus was going to spring free for a catch and a look. Make or miss, that’s a good enough outcome as it is. Because Strus is so open, Jae’Sean Tate makes the delayed decision to try and get to the shooter, which eventually leads to both he and Nix being caught in between, covering nobody.

Again, at that point there’s nobody left for Tyler Herro to even screen. Houston’s only chance was if Jalen Green, the smallest player on the court, also switched and got up to contest the lob. He doesn’t. Vincent gets the pass up over the top of Jabari Smith Jr. and that was it. Butler won the game, but Houston lost it a few seconds earlier.

If you’ve been watching the HEAT for long enough you know there is a long history with lob plays. Years and years ago, Doc Rivers, the Celtics and Rajon Rondo beat the HEAT with an oop. So, Spoelstra stole the set and used it the next year, freeing Dwyane Wade against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

They tried to use it again over the years to no avail – Spoelstra rightly calls these plays Hail Mary’s, since the chance of success is realistically tiny – even running it for shooters like Wayne Ellington off the threat of their shooting. It’s a different look than what they ran against Houston, more of a looping curl than the delayed back screen.

“It’s a totally different set,” Spoelstra said. “We can never use it again.”

The play we were reminded of more was a lob, of sorts, between Goran Dragic and Adebayo back in 2020 against the Sacramento Kings. Not because the design is the same, but the way it played out was similar to Friday.

Sacramento does actually switch here, but just as Jalen Green was the last man back with the only big on the floor, Smith Jr., contesting the inbounds, Cory Joseph was left with Adebayo here with the only true length, Marvin Bagley Jr., on the inbounder. Perfect pass from Dragic just as it was from Vincent.

The HEAT are somewhere around the middle of the pack over the past 10 seasons when it comes to sideline out of bounds plays in the last five seconds. They now have six made shots in those situations, while the Kings lead the way with 16 and the New York Knicks coming in last with just two.

LIFE ON THE EDGE

Speaking of coverage mistakes, you want to see a perfect encapsulation of the difference between young, untested teams and groups that have been through a serious playoff run? Look no further than Saturday’s overtime win against Orlando.

After Markelle Fultz hit a short jumper to keep the Magic in front by nine with just under two and a half minutes to play, here’s what happened on the ensuring possession.

No breakdown required there, it’s just a breakdown. Fultz appears to signal a switch, Paolo Banchero doesn’t, and Orlando gives up possibly the single most damaging play they could have in that situation – a guaranteed, open two that takes almost no time off the clock

Two minutes later, this happened.

This isn’t a switch mistake, Banchero just bites on Butler’s sidestep – considering Butler isn’t exactly a threat to immediately pull-up from three, that’s purely a mental error on Banchero’s part – and Miami not only gets another easy score, but it saves more precious seconds that ensured the HEAT would get another full, non-desperation possession. The HEAT didn’t need all that time because Orlando would then put Gabe Vincent on the line with a rebounding foul, but you couldn’t ask for two quicker, easier scores than Miami got in these situations.

When you’re playing this many close games, your record is generally going to skew a little bit in one direction or another. That’s natural when so many wins and losses are being decided on one or two shots going in or not, or a bounce going your way or a call going against you. There’s only so much you can directly control. Given the HEAT’s record in tight games, 20-11 in games decided by five points or less, we have to acknowledge that Lady Luck plays a factor – just as we would have to if they were below water in those games.

But those plays above? That’s not luck. That’s mental fortitude. The HEAT aren’t perfect and they don’t have perfect defenders. But they rarely make basic coverage mistakes. That much they can control. Having the fourth-lowest turnover rate in clutch minutes helps, too.

“YOU TAKE HIM”

It was a very interesting back and forth with Tyrese Haliburton this season. In the first matchup, on November 4, Haliburton had a good game, nearly a triple double with good efficiency, as the HEAT’s transition defense was all over the place in a two-point loss. Jimmy Butler did not play in that game.

The next time they played, December 12, Haliburton had maybe the worst game of his career as he shot 0-of-9 as the Pacers lost by five. While Haliburton did a decent job dodging Bam Adebayo in the first game, he couldn’t avoid that switch in the second as Adebayo effectively took him out.

In the third game, December 23, Haliburton got his revenge scoring 43 points on 20 shots, 10-of-16 from three – that switch pocket was open for business – including the game-winning three with four seconds left. Butler, notably, did not play in that fourth quarter after injuring his ankle.

Here’s why Butler is important. In the two Pacers games where he was available, Haliburton brought the ball up the floor on 76 possessions. Butler was his primary defender on just four of those, about five percent of the time. This was not the case on Wednesday, when Haliburton brought the ball up 48 times and Butler was the primary defender on 31 of those possessions – 64.5 percent of the time.

The result? Haliburton attempted just eight shots, a season low, and scored 11 points with four turnovers. Not to mention Erik Spoelstra flashes the double deuces, representing Butler’s jersey number, postgame when asked what Miami did to contain Indiana’s All Star.

“Haliburton is a unique player,” Spoelstra said. “He plays a winning style of basketball. He’s the focal point for basically everything they do. All the pieces basically fit around him, and Coach Carlisle has just put together a really great offensive system that complements everybody. They’re not an easy team to guard when Haliburton is healthy.

“You have to deal with a bunch of different high IQ stuff, and the toughness and the detail and the urgency and the level of focus. So instead of trying to cover everything in a walkthrough it’s like, ‘Alright, Jimmy you got Haliburton.’

In fairness, it wasn’t all Butler. Haliburton wasn’t attacking him in isolations, and any action with his usual pick-and-roll partner, Myles Turner, would only result in another switch from Adebayo. But Butler was always there, eliminating concerns for his coach.

Of course, Indiana scored just fine, putting up an Offensive Rating of 119.4 on the strength of 15-of-32 shooting from three. That’s the calculus Miami almost always makes. They have the tools to eliminate almost any primary threat in the league – Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic maybe being the exceptions – and force players who don’t usually create to either make a ton of shots or do things that are out of their comfort zone. The other Pacers almost earned a win in this one just as the other Atlanta Hawks did amidst a 10 turnover game from Trae Young in January. It’s a bet that has paid off for the HEAT in the past, but the equation has been a little imbalanced at times this year for a HEAT defense that has been elite statistically but inconsistent in practice.

THE PINCER ATTACK

Early on against the Indiana Pacers Haywood Highsmith made a classic Wade Cut. It’s tough to call it a straight Ghost Cut the way Wade used to do it, because that would have required Bennedict Mathurin to have actually looked at Highsmith at some point after the start of the possession – where Wade was a master was in timing the cut perfectly not just to the action but to the attention, or lack thereof, of his defender – but the idea is the same. The Pacers are watching the ball, and Highsmith casually waltzes in through the backdoor for an easy two.

On the second possession, happening right after with Bam Adebayo subbed back in, Highsmith did the exact same thing. This one does a little bit of a better job showing just what kind of a predicament the right cut puts the defense in.

As Caleb Martin’s baseline run muddies the waters for the Pacers – Haliburton doesn’t actually become the low man until Adebayo is already rolling to the rim – Max Strus and Adebayo run a fairly typical empty-side action that Strus takes downhill. Now, if Adebayo is going to stop short on the roll and look for the pocket pass most teams have been bringing over the weakside wing defender, here it’s T.J. McConnell, and have him crowd Adebayo on the catch to disrupt the rhythm of his jumper. But because Strus and Adebayo both probe deeper into the paint, the responsibility comes to the low man, Haliburton, to step up and chuck Adebayo off his rim run. But because Haliburton was late to react with his responsibilities changing in real time, and because Highsmith times his cut perfect with Adebayo’s roll, Haliburton is essentially stuck covering two. Darting right into Strus’ field of vision – what good is a cut if the ballhandler can’t see you – the rest is easy.

The Pacers didn’t play this well at all. Buddy Hield is a step behind Strus the entire time. Daniel Theis takes an awkward step that maybe was an effort to get a leg in the way of the pocket pass – remember Nikola Jokic’s kung-fu kicking defense – but it gives Strus a clear angle to attack. McConnell doesn’t affect Adebayo at all and Haliburton is outnumbered. But part of the reason they didn’t cover it well was because all of Miami’s gears were turning together.

You can’t just have everyone cutting at the same time just as it can be tough to have everyone stationary. Too little movement makes it easier for the defense to process the beat-to-beat responsibilities in front of it. Too much movement makes it easier for the defense to cover multiple players with one body. But when the timing is just right? That’s when the magic happens. Wade had some of the best timing in you’ll ever see. Here and there we’ve seen flashes of it from Highsmith, too.

TIDBITS

-Miami is up to 31 games this season decided by five points or less, putting them ahead of pace for the all-time NBA record of 41 set by the ’77-78 Nuggets.

-The 11 uncontested threes taken by the HEAT against Houston were the second most in any HEAT game of the past four seasons.

-Opponent three-point shooting is down to 36.5 percent, with league average being 36 percent, but in clutch minutes – of which the HEAT have naturally played the most – teams are shooting just 25.7 percent from three. League average in those high-leverage moments drops to about 31.5 percent.

-Add Jabari Smith Jr. to the list of long, mobile bigs that have been asked to defend Jimmy Butler full time.