Miami has taken the series lead, 2-1, over the No. 1 overall seed Milwaukee Bucks after their 121-99 victory Saturday night. Game 4 begins Monday night at 7:30 pm.
ASTEROID CITY
There’s only so many ways you can say it, the simplest of which is that the HEAT are currently in the middle of one of the best shotmaking stretches in franchise history.
If we were to define shotmaking, analytically, as the difference between your actual effective field-goal percentage and your expected percentage, based on Second Spectrum’s tracking data, then three of Miami’s eight best shotmaking games of the season – and three of their four best postseason shotmaking games of the past four years – have come in this series. And because there have only been three games in this series, that means they’ve strung three of those games together in a row. Depending on how you sort the dates, this is only the second or third three-game span in franchise history with an effective field-goal percentage over 64.0, regular season or playoffs. A fourth consecutive game – remember, they still shot the three extremely well in Game 2 despite the blowout loss – would probably make this best offensive stretch we’ve ever seen in Miami. No NBA team has ever shot an eFG higher than .630 in three straight postseason games, until now.
Today’s style of play skews those numbers quite a bit. Because so many threes are being taken, and effective field-goal percentage accounts for the value of threes, it’s difficult to compare 2023 offense to, say, 1999 offense. But even using regular old field-goal percentage, Miami has only 55 three-game stretches – some of which overlap, because we’re searching by spans – averaging 53.5 percent or better in the past 35 years. In the playoffs? This is only the sixth time they’ve done it, and the first time since the title run in 2012. If we search by streaks, where they have to be over 53.5 percent in each game of the stretch and the stretch isn’t just inflated by one massive outlier performance, this is the fifth time in franchise history, regular season or otherwise. Only two other NBA teams, the 2017 Warriors and 2006 Suns, have a field-goal percentage of .530 or better in three straight postseason games since 2000. It’s the second time the HEAT have ever had three-straight games of 44 percent from three on at least 25 attempts.
You get the point. What’s happening so far is wild, especially considering it’s coming in the playoffs against what has been one of the best defensive teams in the league for years now. No, they haven’t had Giannis Antetokounmpo for most of it, but all those numbers above include stretches against far, far worse defenses, too.
In some ways it’s a touchy subject. Athletes, like anyone else, can be superstitious. If a pitcher is in the middle of a perfect game or a goalie is working on a shutout, you aren’t supposed to say a word about it.
But those types of games happen within individual games. We can’t just ignore what’s happening across multiple games in a series, even if you might imagine that the players themselves might be. At some point, it might be healthier just to compartmentalize the results to avoid falling in love with them. It’s the process that got them here, to this point, and it’s the process they have to stick to.
“The good thing about getting to the point where we’re making shots now is we’ve already seen the other end of it,” Caleb Martin said. “We’ve already been through the process this year of not making shots. We’ve kind of found our stride shooting wise. We’re not necessarily going to fall in love with it to the point of where it takes away from us attacking the paint because we’ve been doing that all season.”
You could make the case that Milwaukee has simplified things for the HEAT. With just about all of their bigs – which is really just Brook Lopez and Bobby Portis at the moment – playing mostly drop coverage, Miami is always just a pick-and-roll away from getting a decent shot off. No, you don’t want to have to rely on 45 percent mid-range jumpers to sustain you night to night, but as we’re seeing there’s an entire universe of possibilities which can occur in a small sample size. Miami is getting 38 points off screen assists right now after averaging about 21 in the regular season. Night to night, the HEAT have a pretty good idea of where their shots are going to come from.
“We just want to get to our strengths more often,” Erik Spoelstra said. “Milwaukee will try to take us out of our strengths. There’s a discipline to playing with intentionality offensively, and I think we’ve been way more purposeful. Again, it always looks better if you make shots, but you can still find ways to win regardless. The shot profile, I like it. We’re taking the shots that are available and they’re a very good team so it’s not like you’re going to get exactly what you want all the time.”
Is all of this sustainable? Can the HEAT continue to be the No. 1 offense in the postseason after finishing the regular season down at No. 25? From a statistical perspective, the answer is pretty clear, at least over time. But these are basketball players who actually have to go out and shoot the shots. Nothing controls what they do but them, not percentages and probabilities. There’s still room for a little magic in sports. And you know what they say about pilots about to fly into an asteroid field? Never tell them the odds.
THE BRIDGE IS UNDER
Jimmy Butler’s threes are a couple of epic poems and an entry into the D'Aulaires Collection from obtaining mythical status. It doesn’t make sense that a player could seemingly snap his fingers and become a better shooter in the playoffs – something that isn’t entirely unrelated to him becoming a more willing shooter at the same time – but that’s pretty much what happens.
Over his four years with Miami, Butler is shooting 26.6 percent from three on 2.8 attempts per 100 possessions. In the playoffs, those numbers jump up to 35.6 percent on 4.0 attempts per 100. Granted, that comparison ignores that Butler was a much more efficient shooter overall this season. He hit four-year highs in pretty much every mid-range area, and his 35 percent from three was the only time he’s even topped 30 while wearing a HEAT uniform. So maybe this is the year it shouldn’t actually be a surprise, but 4-of-4 from three is 4-of-4 from three – exactly what Butler did in Game 3 – and judging from how Milwaukee chose to cover Butler, maybe they were as surprised as anyone.
Defenders backing off and giving Butler space is nothing new. It might happen less than you think given that Butler is only No. 34 in the league with 563 pick-and-rolls against under coverage over the past four years, but that number isn’t nothing. A Butler-led screen has been worth 1.03 points-per-possession since he’s joined Miami, and when teams have gone under on his screens he’s produced 0.97 points-per – not a major drop but enough to catch the eye of any team trying to figure out how to deal with him. Those splits were a little more intense this year, with under coverage limiting Butler – and the HEAT, given that this factors in assist opportunities – to 0.91 points-per as opposed 1.11 against all other schemes.
Through the first two games of this series, Milwaukee’s gamble was paying off in small samples. Miami had just four points on the seven Butler screens that Milwaukee went under on. That flipped in Game 3.
We won’t use the tracking data specifically for this because it doesn’t capture all of the possessions where Milwaukee simply backed off and dared him to shoot, but again 4-of-4 from three tells you what you need to know. The Bucks told him to shoot if he wanted to, and Butler answered with makes.
Bucks Game 3: Jimmy Back Off Threes
“If you’re playing that far off,” Spoelstra said. “I feel like we’ve faced a similar coverage in years past. You have to take those shots. He’s worked on it diligently. You have to keep defenses honest. It’s not as if he’s just pulling out of a hat right now at this time of the year. He really works at it. Those were the appropriate plays tonight.”
Butler’s career-high in a postseason game is five threes, set back in 2015 with Chicago. This was the fifth time he’s hit four, but the first time he’s ever shot 3-of-3 much less 4-of-4. To his credit, this sort of I Dare You coverage has never affected him too much. Whether or not the shots go in, he’s oscillated between being willing to take the shots being offered up or just brute forcing his way into the paint regardless.
“I can shoot the ball whenever I want,” Butler said. I know I can make it. I’m not worried. Even if you back up off of me, if I want to get into the paint, I’ll still get into the paint. If I want to shoot a mid-range jump shot, I’ll still shoot a mid-range jump shot. That’s part of picking your spots and when you can get to what you want to get to, you can do whatever you want to do.”
Keep an eye on how Milwaukee is playing Butler in Game 4. He may be unlikely to have a perfect night from deep again, something the Bucks could surely be counted on, but being down in a series may make the No. 1 seed a little more reticent to play this sort of defensive mini-game given that their scheme already gives up some shots by its very nature.
Of course, as we continue to mention there’s the Antetokounmpo option. He’s been unavailable thus far, but there’s a non-zero chance that if he plays in Game 4 he also starts on Butler from opening tip. Considering Butler is now true-shooting 67 percent on 32.5 percent usage, attacking early and often to give his team leads that they held onto in Games 1 and 3 – likely Miami’s best path toward success in this series – everything has to be on the Bucks’ table.
DASTARDLY DUNCAN
Duncan Robinson was having a good enough night. With the team needing some volume shooting in the wake of Tyler Herro’s hand injury, coming off the bench to shoot 5-of-6 from three was a man doing his job to the letter.
Following the theme of the series and what we’ve been talking about here, it’s probably not the worst thing for Robinson to know that there is space available for him on the floor. A couple of his threes were pretty tough, but there was also this one where an entire ocean separated him and the biggest body on the floor as he flew around a screen.
Bucks Game 3: Duncan Drop Three
Still, this is all expected of Robinson to a degree. Even if his shooting has waxed and waned since those two historical seasons that essentially kick-started his career, he’s always had the talent. Shooting 32.8 percent from deep in the regular season this year was far more surprising than the fact that he’s now at 77 percent in the playoffs to lead all players in the league. This is what he does.
What he does not do very often, is take the best defenders in the league right to the cup. Robinson has developed his off-dribble game over the past few seasons to account for and counter defenses pressuring up on him and the arc and running him off the line. He’s mixed in some downhill action probably a little more than he gets credit for.
He does not, however, have many plays like this on his ledger.
Bucks Game 3: Duncan Attacks Holiday
Not only did Robinson cross Holiday over to create the driving angle, he also put him shoulder right into him to finish through contact at the rim.
“He’s a great defender and a really good player,” Robinson said of Holiday. “You make a couple and they press up like that, obviously you create a little advantage for yourself.”
Robinson credited his fellow teammates with whom he regularly plays 2-on-2 and 3-on-3 after practices. From what we’ve seen in media sessions, Robinson is typically paired with another big man and does quite a bit of the ballhandling himself in those games – many of which become pretty heated as players argue over calls. If that’s what led to one of the best plays of his entire career, then it’s been time well spent.
PERFECT PARRY
In many ways, this series has been the tale of two defenses that accomplish similar goals in very different ways.
Miami and Milwaukee were two of the four best teams in the league in terms of limiting shots at the rim, but stylistically they were far apart. Milwaukee funneled as many actions as possible into the middle of the floor where Lopez and their other bigs waited in front of the rim. They stayed home on shooters to limit threes, and relied on their elite defenders in 1-on-1 and 2-on-2 situations. They were the No. 4 defense during the regular season, but they were No. 28 in deflections per game and No. 30 in opponent turnover percentage. Miami, on the other hand, helped a ton, fronting and doubling and shrinking the floor on any driver willing to dribble into the teeth of the beast. The HEAT finished No. 3 in forcing turnovers and No. 8 in deflections.
For as much as we’ve discussed the shooting in this series so far – the Bucks have been pretty good themselves, considering they tied the NBA record for a playoff game with 25 threes in Game 2 – Miami hadn’t quite been getting their regular defensive results in the margins. Milwaukee was taking care of the ball with just 24 turnovers in two games. Other than a zone-heavy fourth quarter of Game 2 when the Bucks were mostly running out the clock, Miami’s opponent had never looked particularly uncomfortable.
In Game 3, the Bucks felt the pressure. From the opening possessions of the game, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo were playing as far up in the jerseys of their Bucks counterparts as possible. When Miami fell into a poor matchup, the help was on time and on target. Even simple entry passes for the Bucks were getting tipped.
Bucks Game 3: Physicality Steals
"Obviously Jrue and Khris, they do a great job of coming down and getting to their shots, getting to their spots," Martins said. "We just want to do what we can to wear those guys down and get them to second guess some stuff."
Miami’s 28 deflections in Game 3 – after 29 in the first two games combined – was their second-highest total of the season. They forced 18 turnovers and 13 of those, incredibly, were live-ball – leading to 21 points for Miami going the other way. The HEAT may have been in control from the end of the first quarter on because of their shooting, but the force they were playing with would have given them a leg up regardless. This was their Make Them Feel You game of the series.
“We’re at our best defensively when we’re disruptive,” Spoelstra said. “That’s certainly the nature of this group. It’s a little bit different than some other Miami Heat teams. You have to be all-in on that. It takes great emotional, mental, spiritual, physical commitment to those kinds of efforts to be really disruptive. And they’re not an easy team to disrupt.”
You can ask the same sustainability questions about the defense as you can about the shooting even if defense generally carries over more consistently game to game. All those deflections aren’t always going to turn into points no matter how much force you’re playing with, and the Bucks will likely be prepared for the increased physicality moving forward. Every game is going to be officiated differently, too.
“That’s the playoffs man,” Kyle Lowry said. “You just have to adapt and adjust to what’s being allowed and what’s going to happen. It’s all about just making other people uncomfortable.”
TIDBITS
-The Bucks have scored 1.37 points per possession when that possession starts with a defensive rebound or a live-ball turnover, No. 1 in the postseason. The HEAT are at 1.23 points per, No. 6. Off made shots or free-throws, Bucks are at 1.02, Heat are at 1.21.
-Only the Boston Celtics (108.8 points per 100 plays) have had a better half-court offense than Miami (104.8) in the playoffs, per cleaningtheglass.com.
-This is very much Antetokounmpo related, but the Bucks are getting out in transition just 26.4 percent of the time off live rebounds. During the regular season they were at 30.8 percent, a Top 10 mark.
-About 43 percent of Miami’s shot attempts are coming in either the upper paint or mid-range zones. They’re making 49.2 percent of those shots. Milwaukee has been even better at 50.6, including 52.2 percent in the non-paint mid-range. For all the sustainability questions about the HEAT’s shooting, almost all of it applies to what the Bucks have been doing as well.