With Media Day and Training Camp on the horizon, let's take a look at the entire roster and any questions we have about individual players headed into another long season.
Kyle Lowry – Does He Start, Does It Matter?
Maybe, and no. We could easily see Lowry back in the starting lineup, or he could return to the bench role that revitalized his efficiency in the latter stages of the season and playoffs. Even though both Gabe Vincent and Max Strus left in free agency, Erik Spoelstra could opt for more democratic ballhandling duties in that first group, with Tyler Herro and Jimmy Butler running offense while slotting in another wing such as Josh Richardson, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin or Haywood Highsmith. Bench minutes are a little easier to manage for a coach, as Lowry averaged 33 as a starter and 23 as a reserve, and he will turn 38 in March. Either way, like most of the known-quantity vets on this team it’s all about being ready for a postseason run.
Kevin Love – Is There More To Integrate With A Full Training Camp?
Typically, any midseason acquisition is going to benefit from a full offseason and training camp with his new team over the sporadic practice time available during the schedule. Love, however, was as plug-and-play as they come, immediately stepping into the starting lineup and Miami’s well-worn floor-spacing role between Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo. The full-court outlet passes were flying both early and late, toppling the New York Knicks in Game 1 of that series, and Love always appeared more than happy with whatever was required from him in a given matchup, even as his minutes shortened a bit against Boston only for him to return as a starter against Denver. No drama here, on or off the court.
Jimmy Butler – Is There Anything To Gain In The Regular Season?
With apologies to Lowry and Love, each of whom has a championship ring back at home, there isn’t a player on this team who has proven himself more times over in the playoffs than Butler, last year adding a 56-point masterpiece against Milwaukee in Game 4 to his ever-growing list of legends and myths. This question, then, isn’t so much about Butler the player as much as it is about new league rules. To qualify for any of the league awards, including the All-NBA team for which Butler has been selected in three of his four HEAT seasons, players now must play in at least 65 games under the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. Butler’s first two seasons were warped by the pandemic so it’s not all apples-to-apples, but the closest he’s come to 65 is last season at 64. If you’re hurt, you’re hurt, so maybe this is all a moot point, but Butler just turned 34 and has been kept to between 33 and 34 minutes a game each season by Erik Spoelstra like clockwork. The postseason is the thing. It’s the only place left for Butler after leading Miami to the Finals two of the past four years. There just might be a squeeze for veteran stars around the league, especially those who are laser focused on a ring, when it comes to regular season accolades. And while Butler might already be a Hall of Famer, a few more of those accolades will only help to secure his case.
Josh Richardson – Is The Fit As Clean As It Looks?
There isn’t a soul in the building that won’t be happy to see Richardson back. He was as well liked as any young player who has worn a HEAT uniform and there’s little doubt that will change. Back during his first Miami run Richardson grew from a pure spot-up, 3-and-D rookie to someone who could share lead ballhandling duties with a 20 percent usage rate. Defensively, he can take on many of the same assignments that Caleb Martin and Gabe Vincent took on last season and should be able to pair with Martin at the top of the zone. Efficiency, particularly inside the arc, will be top of mind as it is for any role player, but there isn’t a lineup he doesn’t fit into in theory.
Thomas Bryant – Is He The Backup Center?
Bryant fits right into a mold the HEAT have gotten plenty of mileage out of in recent history, the floor-spacing five who can finish in pick-and-roll. In a normal year, that would slot Bryant into the backup spot immediately. This year, though, Orlando Robinson – less proven, but with a promising skillset that loosely resembles Bryant’s – will be fighting for those same minutes in training camp. Chances are, if the shooting is comparable, it’s the defense that will decide things, either in October or over the course of the season.
Bam Adebayo – What Is The Next 10% Jump?
Adebayo’s improvement is unique. Rather than seeing any one single huge leap in his game – beyond the minutes gain that came from starting full-time in 2019-20 – he basically gets 10 percent better each season. Trouble finishing at the rim? Fixed. Issues making short mid-range shots? Gone. Need a go-to shot against drop coverage, here’s a dotted-line jumper. Adebayo doesn’t have all the answers, but he always seems to come back with some answer to at least try and combat anything that came up the previous year.
After topping 20 points for the first time – his usage remained flat, largely due to a decrease in free-throw rate and an increase in minutes – playing a wider variety of defensive coverages, beyond switching, than ever before, and shouldering an increased offensive load in the postseason against different schemes, what could be next? One guess is that he’ll work on cleaning up his reads and comfort in the middle of the floor. As much as he relied on those short jumpers last year, some teams started to swarm him on catch, varying up their angles to keep him on their toes. More reps will only help there, as will adding a few more one-on-one moves when the help disrupts his catch-and-shoot timing but retreats to give him a one-on-one. The question with Adebayo is never whether he will come back better, it’s how.
Duncan Robinson – How Can He Build Off His Postseason Run?
It’s been a strange couple of years for Robinson. After posting two of the best high-volume shooting seasons in league history and legitimately freaking out every opposing defense, Robinson opened 2021-22 on a prolonged slump. He eventually got back to his normal 40 percent, but by then he was no longer starting and in that postseason he only played 12 minutes a game. This season he was hampered by a thumb injury, shooting 32.8 percent from three in 42 games, before undergoing surgery. At the start of the playoffs, he was barely in the rotation. Then Herro breaks his hand and Robinson eventually becomes maybe the most important, or at least impactful, offensive player on the team, as the HEAT scored 117.7 per 100 with him on the court, highest mark of anyone.
Sometimes Robinson really was their best offense, coming in when things were bogged down and just launching until the defense overreacted and he could slide into the paint for an easy one. You’d have to imagine such a run would be great for the confidence, and being healthy surely helped, but the roster is whole again and there may not be as much opportunity as there was during the march to the Finals. Still, Robinson’s chemistry with Adebayo is undeniable, as is his gravity, and with Max Strus in Cleveland there will be a need for movement shooting. Robinson’s game has become pretty fleshed out, with counters for the counters to counters, so it’s really about opportunity and consistency.
Tyler Herro – Is There More Off-Dribble Upside?
Nobody was more disappointed in the broken hand, coming in Game 1 against Milwaukee, than Herro, who wanted to prove himself in a high-usage role on the biggest stage. He’ll have to wait another full season for the opportunity, but the good news is that after his Sixth Man of the Year campaign where he was oddly much more efficient off the catch than off the dribble despite the microwave scorer role, Herro added five percentage points to his off-dribble scoring – smaller gains than that only on jumpers, but 37 percent on dribble-threes is strong. Herro’s actual efficiency didn’t move, however, despite the move to the starting lineup – you would expect the percentages to go up a bit more with more open, Butler-and-Adebayo created looks, though this isn’t exactly a science – because his rim rate fell to a career low and his free-throw rate declined as well. In other words, Herro was better at taking star shots in a slightly more supporting role – still with plenty of usage, especially when Butler missed games – while becoming more of a 2.5 level scorer than true three-level. Short of a Steph Curry-esque season off the dribble – possible, given Herro’s talent, and he wasn’t too far off in 2021-22 – that’s the next level. Get to the rim more. Get to the free-throw line more. Easier said than done, given that those can be holy grail items more many scorers, but Herro hasn’t even turned 24 yet. There’s no reason to call him a finished product. He’s very, very good at what he does. Here’s betting that both he and the team think there’s another level to hit.
Caleb Martin – What Is His Role?
Like Lowry, Martin also began the season in the starting lineup before finishing it coming off the bench. That was less a commentary on Martin’s performance and more about basic team needs. The perception during Miami’s up-and-down regular season was that the opening group wasn’t getting it done, in part due to Martin being undersized for the power forward spot alongside Bam Adebayo. But while Martin isn’t as stout as P.J. Tucker was the previous year – this led to Erik Spoelstra employing a bit less switching to keep Adebayo around the rim – the starters with Martin and Lowry (or Gabe Vincent) were generally positive groups, with Miami’s troubles starting when either Adebayo or Butler hit the bench. For Martin’s part in all of it, he was as steady as they come no matter where his minutes came from, and his chemistry with Vincent at the top of Spoelstra’s zone coverage was one of Miami’s greatest assets.
When Herro broke his hand during the playoffs, things changed a bit. Not in a way that was particularly reflected in Martin’s usage rate, but there were incredibly memorable games (Game 2 in New York, Games 2 and 7 in Boston) where he got to dip back into his college bag and create some offense for a team that needed shot creation. Not only was Martin a huge part of the HEAT’s resurgent shooting, hitting 42 percent on 4.5 attempts a game, his overall efficiency (65.7 true shooting) coming from rim attacks and pull-up two had a huge effect in raising the HEAT’s offensive floor. You could easily argue that he was the HEAT’s third best player on the road to the NBA Finals. The question, then, is whether that performance will affect his role going forward? We’d argue that his role didn’t change as much as it looked. Martin has always been opportunistic with his aggressive stretches, rarely looking for something that isn’t there regardless of how his efficiency naturally rises and falls, and with a healthy team there’s no reason to think he won’t just keep being himself. Martin’s role is just to be Caleb Martin.
Haywood Highsmith – How Much Volume Is There?
Highsmith came into camp last year with a chance to be the next in line among undrafted players to earn a rotation spot in Miami. Quietly, he delivered, proving himself a trustworthy defender – Spoelstra had him on Jayson Tatum and Jamal Murray at times in postseason games – that could play his role on offense, taking spot-up threes, cutting off the ball and crashing the offensive glass. At nearly 27 years old it’s probably tough to see a big offensive explosion, but there are gains to be made in three-point volume even if they already make up over half of the shots he takes. Being able to get up shots at a high clip when necessary – an underrated part of Miami’s team-wide shooting spike in the playoffs – goes a long way for a role player, and Highsmith has shown progress as a move-and-relocate shooter. The defense will play, and being a low-volume shooter can work in the P.J. Tucker sense, which is easily Highsmith’s closest comp, but the key to being a regular postseason spacer, and having gravity, is being a threat at any spot, at any time.
Justin Champagnie – Why Did Miami Bring Him Back?
After playing most of the 2022-23 season with the Sioux Falls Skyforce, where he scored an efficient 18 a game on 61.5 true shooting, and losing in the semifinals, Champagnie – another twin, as it happens, with his brother Julian also in the league – signed with the Boston Celtics for the remainder of the regular season. When Boston waived him in July, Champagnie quickly found himself back in Miami on a camp invite. Clearly, there’s something the HEAT likes here. He isn’t the first player who has taken big-league deals elsewhere and turned up back in Miami’s pipeline, so it isn’t a guarantee of future success, but he’s only 22 so there might be more to come in this story.
Alondes Williams – What Could He Be?
Williams is a 6-foot-5 guard who put up 64 percent true shooting on 19.3 percent usage with the Long Island Nets last year, during regular season play, taking four threes a game. His 62 percent on two-pointers during the G-League regular season is an astronomical number for his size, but that number drops to 54 percent including postseason and G-League Showcase games. While most of his offense came in transition and from spot-ups, he did get reps with the ball in his hands. The HEAT aren’t typically looking for volume scorers out of their G-League pipeline, to the point that they’ve remade some of those into role players (Gabe Vincent, for one), so this is one answer we may have to leave up for time at the moment. He can be what the HEAT see him as.
Cole Swider – Does He Fit An Archetype?
Swider is a 6-foot-9 shooter who can fire coming off screens, off handoffs or off the catch, standstill, relocating or in transition. Sound familiar? Just as Max Strus’ skillset fit the mold established by Duncan Robinson, Swider could fall right into that lineage of shooters who are maximized next to Bam Adebayo. There’s a long way between then and now – both Robinson and Strus needed some seasoning before earning a rotation spot – but it’s not hard to see the vision here.
Jamal Cain – Is He The Next Find?
On paper, Cain is following Miami’s developmental blueprint line for line. Put up big numbers in the G-League while working on your big-league skillset (usually shooting), get your feet wet with a handful of games at the highest level, get some good run in during Summer League and come back ready for a real opportunity the next year. So far, so mostly good, as Cain showed promise with his athleticism and defensive skillset when given an opportunity last season, hitting 37 percent from deep in the G-League and 35 percent during Summer League. Just as elite shooters don’t have to be elite defenders, an elite defender doesn’t have to be an elite shooter to carve out a longer-term spot in Miami, and if he fits comfortably along that spectrum Cain has a chance to be next in line for rotation minutes when players start missing games here and there. The HEAT don’t invest multiple years in players without thinking they have a chance to make an impact.
Orlando Robinson – How Real Is The Shooting?
Robinson only took six three in 31 games last season, but he took two a game while with Sioux Falls, over four during Summer League on 35 percent, and has regularly talked about working on his shooting. Granted, the efficiency has come and gone but it’s not out of the ordinary for a center to have a breakout shooting season if they put in the work. Robinson didn’t play much after the team signed Cody Zeller last year and that could mirror the acquisition of Bryant, but if you’re on Spoelstra’s roster you’re going to get your chances and if Robinson can make good on his development as a shooter when that opportunity comes, it’ll be that much tougher to keep him off the floor.
Dru Smith – Where Did He Go Last Season?
First signing with Miami before training camp in 2021, Dru Smith was on a two-way deal with the HEAT last season before being waived in mid-December. A month later, he signed a two-way deal with Brooklyn, eventually playing 91 minutes across 10 games. Smith has always appeared to fit in Gabe Vincent mold, but there’s a lot more between sharing a similar body type or skillset and being a 16-game bad*** like Vincent. When Miami waived Jamaree Bouyea this week it appeared to temporarily clear up some possible minutes for Smith down the road as one of the few smaller guards on the roster, but RJ Hampton’s signing should mean just as much competition in camp.
Nikola Jovic – Is He The Roster’s Biggest Wild Card?
It’s impossible not to like Jovic. If we told you that he came into the lockeroom before every game last season carrying a steaming hot cup of coffee, wearing aviators and firing off finger guns in slow motion at everyone he sees, it wouldn’t be that far from the truth. Young as he was, he often just felt like a kid who was happy to be there. But behind the exterior charm was a player who, once he dealt with a back injury that limited his activity for stretches of the year, was always seen putting in the work on his game. It appeared to pay off, too, as he scored 10 points a game on 42 percent three-point shooting with Serbia during the FIBA World Cup.
Jovic had a handful of solid performances in the first half of Miami’s season, mostly finishing pocket passes with a diving lane or spotting up from three. The skill that really popped was his passing and floor sense, making quick reads and immediately firing off accurate passes to the next open guy, even if the next open guy was on the other side of the floor. You could tell, easily, that there’s more than just a stretch-four in there, a big playmaker – in the mold of a Boris Diaw, Hedo Turkoglu or even Kevin Love, in a sense – even if it doesn’t come with a ton of traditional ballhandling at the same time. The defense was a work in progress and ultimately that will be his ticket to minutes, but if he can hang on that end and the shooting gets to league-average or better (he hit 23 percent of his 35 attempts last year) we could be looking at a real ceiling-raising player for a team that can always use dynamic offensive talent.
Drew Peterson – Who Is He?
He’s his own player, an undrafted 6-foot-9 rookie wing out of USC, but everything we said about Cole Swider applies to Peterson. After shooting 38 percent in his three years at USC (after two at Rice) he hit 47 percent across four Summer League games, doing all the same movement stuff, including some handoffs with Orlando Robinson, you expect from Miami’s shooter pipeline. The HEAT have a type, and for good reason. If there’s anything they’ve been able to consistently find of late, it’s shooting.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. – How Early Is Too Early For A Rotation Spot?
JJJ delivered on everything that was expected out of him after the draft – a high IQ, do-it-all wing whose efficiency should improve as he cuts out some of the college star shots from his diet – though he was limited to just two Summer League games due to injury. At 22 years old after four years at UCLA, Jaquez Jr. is the type of experienced rookie that you could see earning minutes early and often, but even for ready-to-play guys there is always an adjustment period. For some, it’s the speed of the game, though Jaquez Jr. plays as such a measured pace already that might be less of an issue. But for others, it’s the size and quickness of all the players they’re going up against. Defensively, that’s an adjustment for everyone. Jaquez Jr. might come out of the box ready to play 15 minutes a game like Christian Braun was for Denver last year, but even if it takes him a month or so to get acclimated there’s a world where Erik Spoelstra finds trust in a rookie come April, May and June. The shooting needs to be there, as always, and Jaquez Jr. has the type of controlled polish that could eventually lead to an outsized role, one that impacts winning, for a draft pick.
R.J. Hampton – Is There More Than Meets The Eye?
A very late addition to the training camp roster and backcourt, on a two-way contract no less, Hampton is a 21-year-old former No. 24 overall pick – he played a year in New Zealand instead of playing collegiate ball – traded a few days after the draft in 2020 from Milwaukee to Denver in the four-team Jrue Holiday deal. Since then he spent a couple of seasons in Orlando before finishing last year in Detroit. So it’s been a bit of a journey, but just because he hasn’t found his home or his role in the league doesn’t mean there isn’t talent. In fact, there’s enough talent here that it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hampton take the rare Caleb Martin path, a league veteran taking two-way deal to eventually work his way back into a rotation. Sure, it’s easy to write off signings that happen just days before camp, but nobody thought much of a quiet, mid-September signing of Martin two years ago, either.
Cheick Diallo – How Did He Get Here?
Like Hampton, Diallo – a 6-foot-9 power forward) is a former draft pick (No. 33 overall) who has been on a journey, playing for three teams across five years in the league before heading abroad to play in Russia, Spain, Puerto Rico and Japan with a stop in the G-League in between all the flights. And like Hampton, you wouldn’t expect the HEAT to spend a camp spot on an older (relatively speaking, he’s 27) veteran rather than a young prospect without thinking there’s a place for him in the system.