Play-In Preview: 3 X-Factors for Bulls-Heat

The Chicago Bulls became the first 10th-seeded team to win a Play-In game in the tournament’s history on Wednesday.

Now, they are looking to become the first 10-seed to win consecutive single-elimination road contests and punch a ticket to the playoffs as the East’s eighth seed.

Standing in their path is the Miami Heat, who have long been a bitter rival and, in recent years, owned the head-to-head matchup. Entering the 2022-23 season, Miami had won six of its last seven games against the Bulls, including a 4-0 regular season series sweep in 2021-22.

But the Bulls flipped the script in 2022-23, winning all three of their regular season meetups — two on the road and one at home — with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. That track record should give the Bulls confidence in their ability to match up with the Heat in this win-or-go-home scenario. But the postseason is always a different beast.

We know Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan will again be the focal point of the Bulls’ offensive attack. LaVine returned to All-Star form as the regular season progressed, and exploded for 39 points (30 of which came in the second half) in Wednesday’s victory over Toronto, backpacking a 19-point second half comeback by roasting Raptors defenders off the dribble and draining difficult jump shots. DeRozan, meanwhile, had success against Miami in the regular season — averaging 28.3 points across the three games, including a 37-point outing on opening night — and will be leaned upon again for isolation shotmaking ability.

We also know Jimmy Butler is at the top of Billy Donovan’s gameplan, given the Heat star’s track record of playoff heroics and the difficulty his bruising style poses to a Bulls team that is defensively stout yet small on the wings.

But oftentimes the margins can decide games this evenly-matched and with this high of stakes.

Here are three X-Factors to Friday’s game, which will decide the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs:

The Bulls’ fifth-ranked defense during the regular season was built on a foundation of disruption. At their best, they punch above their positional size by unleashing controlled chaos on opponents.

Wednesday’s win over the Raptors was a prime example. By switching ball-screens more frequently in the second half, sending timely double-teams at Toronto’s shot-creators down the stretch, and unleashing Alex Caruso (three steals and blocks apiece) to blow up on-ball actions and passing lanes, the Bulls forced 10 turnovers — and scored 14 points off those giveaways — while holding the Raptors to 40.5% field goal shooting between quarters three and four.

Like the Raptors, the Heat are a poor 3-point shooting team and prone to stagnation at the offensive end. They are above average in terms of taking care of the ball — Miami finished the season ranked 13th in turnover rate — but the Bulls averaged 20 points off of 15.3 turnovers per game in the regular season series.

In building a 27-point first half lead during the Bulls’ 113-99 win in Chicago on March 18, the level of activity necessary to disrupt the Heat’s offensive flow was on full display.

Caruso, who only played 10 minutes in that game after exiting in the first half with a foot injury (that the team is still closely monitoring), is obviously the Bulls’ anchor in this regard. He will be critical. But the Bulls’ attention-to-detail must be team-wide at the defensive end.

Keep an eye out for Derrick Jones Jr. in this matchup as well. He received five minutes of second-half run over Andre Drummond at backup center in the Raptors game (and two minutes in a similar capacity the last time the Bulls played the Heat) because of his ability to effectively switch screens. Donovan has proven he values that versatility, even if it means giving up some size, when the Bulls' backs are against the wall.

Speaking of: versatility is fundamental to the Heat’s defensive identity. From switching screens, to trapping pick-and-roll ball-handlers, to sprinkling in zone, they have interchangeable enough personnel — and a sharp enough head coach in Erik Spoelstra — to deploy almost any coverage you can imagine.

Such unpredictability can be daunting. But Vučević benefitted from Miami’s switching, specifically, during the regular season matchups. Outside of starting center Bam Adebayo, Miami’s frontcourt rotation runs small and wing-heavy at the forward spots, which allowed Vučević opportunities to burrow in for easy buckets inside.

Vučević averaged 19 points (63.2% shooting) and 13 rebounds across these teams’ three regular season games. And when the two-time All-Star draws increased attention in the post, he’s a proven and willing distributor to open teammates on the perimeter.

The key, as it has been for the last two seasons, will be his teammates successfully getting him the ball in advantage situations when required.

LaVine and DeRozan will be at the top of the Heat’s priority list defensively — and for good reason. If Vučević can provide a reliable safety valve on the back ends of switches or aggressive rotations, it gives the Bulls another wrinkle in an offense prone to losing its flow.

Wednesday’s win in Toronto came down to the Bulls’ collective defensive effort and their stars shouldering the load offensively. But in the event of an off shooting night for any of their “Big Three,” or Miami neutralizing them as scorers with targeted defensive schemes, it will be up to the role players to step up.

Candidates on the Bulls’ side include: Patrick Beverley, who Miami was content to help off of in the March matchup before he burned them for four 3-pointers in a span of less than three minutes to blow the game open; and Coby White, who was the definition of an X-Factor the last time these teams played, scoring 18 points, handing out six assists, making four 3-pointers and catalyzing a few key sequences to stymie the Heat’s comeback bid.

Miami also has a bevy of candidates in this department. Kyle Lowry, for one, is coming off a 33-point performance in the Heat's opening game of the Play-In, a loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Tyler Herro had 26 in that same contest. And Max Strus had 20 points (5-for-13 3-point shooting) in the March game in Chicago.

Despite the Heat’s 27th-ranked 3-point percentage of 34.4%, those are all players capable of burning the Bulls from behind the arc in a single-game environment Navigating screens efficiently — on- and off-the-ball — and rotating on time will be crucial.

In fact, it could be the difference between winning or going home.