Rob Schaefer

The Chicago Bulls’ 2022-23 season came to a disappointing end in mid-April with a loss to the Miami Heat in the play-in tournament.

Although that defeat fell short of the team’s playoff goals, there are still important basketball matters to attend to this May. Mainly, the NBA Draft Lottery, which will be held on May 16.

This year’s lottery has higher stakes for the Bulls than your typical non-playoff team. As part of the franchise’s trade for Nikola Vučević in February of 2021, the Bulls owe the Orlando Magic their 2023 first-round pick if said pick falls outside of the top four of the draft order — which, as of now, is overwhelmingly likely.

But that is why the lottery balls are drawn. Here is everything you need to know ahead of that seminal night, in FAQ format:

Uh, lottery balls? How does this whole process work again?

A good — and relatively complex — question to get us started.

The NBA Draft Lottery is exactly what it says it is: a lottery. The contestants are the 14 teams that did not qualify for the playoffs in a given season.

First, 14 lottery balls numbered 1-14 are placed into a lottery machine, with each of the 14 eligible teams assigned a set amount of four-number combinations.

Four balls are then withdrawn from said machine four times, producing four different four-number combinations. Whichever teams own the combinations that are produced are assigned the Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 picks, respectively, in the draft.

After the top four is etched in stone, pick Nos. 5-14 are assigned to the remaining teams based on the inverse of your regular season record. This means the only way a team can rise above its pre-lottery slot is if it jumps into the top four, and, if a team does not rise into the top four, the lowest they can fall is four spots below their pre-lottery slot.

What chance does each team have of winning the lottery?

But, of course, all lottery teams are not created equal. The worse your regular season record, the more combinations you receive.

Of the 1,001 possible four-number combinations that the lottery balls produce, here is how each team’s chances of landing the No. 1 overall pick break down by team rank (with No. 1 representing the team with the NBA’s worst record):

Each team’s chances of landing a top-four pick are significantly higher than the No. 1 pick, as they have four draws to see one of their four-number combinations produced.

What are the Bulls’ chances of winning the lottery? Or at least landing in the top four?

The Bulls finished the regular season tied with the Oklahoma City Thunder for the NBA’s 11th-worst record (40-42), so they will split the combined 3.5% chance (35 combinations) of landing the No. 1 pick.&nbsp;

But because owning 17.5 four-number combinations would be impossible, the league coin-flipped last month to break the tie and determine which team would have 18 combinations and which would have 17. The Bulls won, so they have a 1.8% chance of landing the top pick in the draft and an 8.5% chance of rising into the top four.

Here is how the other lottery teams’ chances stack up:

How often do teams actually jump up in the lottery?

The NBA actually tweaked its lottery structure before the 2019 draft to smooth the probabilities a bit more evenly throughout the 14 contestants.

Before that draft, for example, the league used to only draw for the top three picks instead of four. And the team with the worst regular season record had a 25% chance of landing the top pick instead of an even 14% for each of the bottom three.

Such change was made to disincentivize intentionally jockeying for better draft lottery position — and has produced some interesting results thus far.

Of the 16 teams that have picked in the top four in the four drafts since the above changes were implemented, eight have come from outside the top four of the pre-lottery order. One of those eight even won the No. 1 pick (the Pelicans, who, with the league’s seventh-worst record, cashed in on a 6% chance in 2019).

The good news for the Bulls is anything is possible. Each year since the lottery system overhaul, at least one team from outside the top four has jumped — three in 2019, two in 2020 and 2021, and one in 2022.

The bad news is only once has a team jumped from a lottery slot as low as the Bulls’ 11th-place standing: the Lakers in 2019.

What is the Bulls’ history of jumping in the lottery?

The Bulls have jumped in the lottery three times in franchise history and once in the four years since the system tweaks were made.

The first was in 1999, when they rose from third pre-lottery to the No. 1 pick and selected Elton Brand. The third, as noted in the chart above, was in 2020, when they leapt from seventh to fourth and plucked Patrick Williams.

But, if you believe in miracles, the second is the most compelling relative to their chances this year. Fifteen years ago, sitting ninth in the 2008 lottery order with a 1.7% chance of nabbing the top overall pick, the Bulls vaulted all the way to No. 1 and drafted Derrick Rose.

So, yes, even if it’s not a good one, we’re telling you there is a chance that another generational talent — Victor Wembenyama? — ends up in Bulls threads come June.

nba-draft-lottery-how-it-works-and-where-the-bulls-stand

NBA Draft Lottery: How it works and where the Bulls stand

The Chicago Bulls became the first 10th-seeded team to win a Play-In game in the tournament’s history on Wednesday.

Now, they are looking to become the first 10-seed to win consecutive single-elimination road contests and punch a ticket to the playoffs as the East’s eighth seed.

Standing in their path is the Miami Heat, who have long been a bitter rival and, in recent years, owned the head-to-head matchup. Entering the 2022-23 season, Miami had won six of its last seven games against the Bulls, including a 4-0 regular season series sweep in 2021-22.

But the Bulls flipped the script in 2022-23, winning all three of their regular season meetups — two on the road and one at home — with an average margin of victory of 10.7 points. That track record should give the Bulls confidence in their ability to match up with the Heat in this win-or-go-home scenario. But the postseason is always a different beast.

We know Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan will again be the focal point of the Bulls’ offensive attack. LaVine returned to All-Star form as the regular season progressed, and exploded for 39 points (30 of which came in the second half) in Wednesday’s victory over Toronto, backpacking a 19-point second half comeback by roasting Raptors defenders off the dribble and draining difficult jump shots. DeRozan, meanwhile, had success against Miami in the regular season — averaging 28.3 points across the three games, including a 37-point outing on opening night — and will be leaned upon again for isolation shotmaking ability.

We also know Jimmy Butler is at the top of Billy Donovan’s gameplan, given the Heat star’s track record of playoff heroics and the difficulty his bruising style poses to a Bulls team that is defensively stout yet small on the wings.

But oftentimes the margins can decide games this evenly-matched and with this high of stakes.

Here are three X-Factors to Friday’s game, which will decide the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs:

The Bulls’ fifth-ranked defense during the regular season was built on a foundation of disruption. At their best, they punch above their positional size by unleashing controlled chaos on opponents.

Wednesday’s win over the Raptors was a prime example. By switching ball-screens more frequently in the second half, sending timely double-teams at Toronto’s shot-creators down the stretch, and unleashing Alex Caruso (three steals and blocks apiece) to blow up on-ball actions and passing lanes, the Bulls forced 10 turnovers — and scored 14 points off those giveaways — while holding the Raptors to 40.5% field goal shooting between quarters three and four.

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Bulls defense vs. Raptors (second half)

Like the Raptors, the Heat are a poor 3-point shooting team and prone to stagnation at the offensive end. They are above average in terms of taking care of the ball — Miami finished the season ranked 13th in turnover rate — but the Bulls averaged 20 points off of 15.3 turnovers per game in the regular season series.

In building a 27-point first half lead during the Bulls’ 113-99 win in Chicago on March 18, the level of activity necessary to disrupt the Heat’s offensive flow was on full display.

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Bulls defense vs. Heat (first half)

Caruso, who only played 10 minutes in that game after exiting in the first half with a foot injury (that the team is still closely monitoring), is obviously the Bulls’ anchor in this regard. He will be critical. But the Bulls’ attention-to-detail must be team-wide at the defensive end.

Keep an eye out for Derrick Jones Jr. in this matchup as well. He received five minutes of second-half run over Andre Drummond at backup center in the Raptors game (and two minutes in a similar capacity the last time the Bulls played the Heat) because of his ability to effectively switch screens. Donovan has proven he values that versatility, even if it means giving up some size, when the Bulls' backs are against the wall.

Speaking of: versatility is fundamental to the Heat’s defensive identity. From switching screens, to trapping pick-and-roll ball-handlers, to sprinkling in zone, they have interchangeable enough personnel — and a sharp enough head coach in Erik Spoelstra — to deploy almost any coverage you can imagine.

Such unpredictability can be daunting. But Vučević benefitted from Miami’s switching, specifically, during the regular season matchups. Outside of starting center Bam Adebayo, Miami’s frontcourt rotation runs small and wing-heavy at the forward spots, which allowed Vučević opportunities to burrow in for easy buckets inside.

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Nikola Vučević vs. Heat switches

Vučević averaged 19 points (63.2% shooting) and 13 rebounds across these teams’ three regular season games. And when the two-time All-Star draws increased attention in the post, he’s a proven and willing distributor to open teammates on the perimeter.

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Nikola Vučević passing vs. Heat

The key, as it has been for the last two seasons, will be his teammates successfully getting him the ball in advantage situations when required.

LaVine and DeRozan will be at the top of the Heat’s priority list defensively — and for good reason. If Vučević can provide a reliable safety valve on the back ends of switches or aggressive rotations, it gives the Bulls another wrinkle in an offense prone to losing its flow.

Wednesday’s win in Toronto came down to the Bulls’ collective defensive effort and their stars shouldering the load offensively. But in the event of an off shooting night for any of their “Big Three,” or Miami neutralizing them as scorers with targeted defensive schemes, it will be up to the role players to step up.

Candidates on the Bulls’ side include: Patrick Beverley, who Miami was content to help off of in the March matchup before he burned them for four 3-pointers in a span of less than three minutes to blow the game open; and Coby White, who was the definition of an X-Factor the last time these teams played, scoring 18 points, handing out six assists, making four 3-pointers and catalyzing a few key sequences to stymie the Heat’s comeback bid.

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Patrick Beverley shooting vs. Heat

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Coby White vs. Heat

Miami also has a bevy of candidates in this department. Kyle Lowry, for one, is coming off a 33-point performance in the Heat's opening game of the Play-In, a loss to the Atlanta Hawks. Tyler Herro had 26 in that same contest. And Max Strus had 20 points (5-for-13 3-point shooting) in the March game in Chicago.

Despite the Heat’s 27th-ranked 3-point percentage of 34.4%, those are all players capable of burning the Bulls from behind the arc in a single-game environment Navigating screens efficiently — on- and off-the-ball — and rotating on time will be crucial.

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Tyler Herro, Max Strus vs. Bulls

In fact, it could be the difference between winning or going home.

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Play-In Preview: 3 X-Factors for Bulls-Heat

The Heat's 3-point percentage may have ranked near the bottom of the league this season, but they have shooters that can get hot in a hurry.

Coby White was an X-Factor in the Bulls' win over the Heat on March 18.

Patrick Beverley made Miami pay for helping off of him in these teams' matchup in March.

Playing through Nikola Vučević doesn't just mean taking advantage of his post scoring. The Bulls' big man is also adept at passing out of pressure and finding open teammates.

Nikola Vučević averaged an efficient 19 points against the Heat during the regular season by attacking smaller defenders on switches.

The Bulls built a 27-point first half lead against the Heat on March 18 — and it all started at the defensive end of the floor.

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