10 games left: here's how the Bulls can secure a play-in tournament spot

There are 10 games left in the Bulls’ regular-season schedule.

So which do you want first: the good news or the bad?

The good news is that, thanks to an 8-5 surge in 13 games since the All-Star break, the Bulls currently sit 10th in the Eastern Conference and in control of their destiny to qualify for the play-in tournament. A berth would give them a puncher’s chance of making noise in the postseason, which is the franchise’s goal.

The bad? Most predictive models still do not consider the Bulls a likely playoff team — meaning, one of the final eight left standing in the Eastern Conference when the play-in dust settles. 

Five Thirty Eight and Basketball Reference each project the Bulls (34-38) to finish the regular season 10th in the East with a record of 39-43. But Five Thirty Eight gives the Bulls just a 23% chance of making the playoffs, while Basketball Reference estimates 35.6%.

The Bulls’ magic number to qualify for the play-in tournament is nine. In other words, if the amount of wins they pick up and the amount of losses the team closest behind them in the standings — currently, the Indiana Pacers, who sit 1.5 games back at 33-40 — adds up to nine by season’s end, the Bulls will lock in a spot.

However, the Bulls should have their sights set on climbing as high in the standings as they can, because the reason their playoff odds are so low is because it is significantly more difficult to advance through the play-in tournament as a No. 9 or 10 seed than it is as a No. 7 or 8. 

As a No. 9 or 10 seed, the Bulls would need to win two games without a loss in the play-in round to clinch the eighth seed in the conference — first in the 9-10 game, then against the loser of the 7-8 seed game. From the 10th spot, they would need to win both games on the road, where they are 14-21 this season compared to 20-17 at the United Center. 

Catching the 39-34 Brooklyn Nets in seventh (and securing homecourt throughout the play-in) or the 40-34 Miami Heat (for a top-six seed) is a pipe dream. But even clawing to eighth, where the 36-37 Atlanta Hawks reside 1.5 games in front of the Bulls, would ensure needing only one win in two tries (with the second one guaranteed to be a home game) to clinch a playoff spot.

With seeds eight through 12 in the East separated by only four games, tiebreakers in this race are as important to monitor as overall records. If two teams are tied in the standings, the first pertinent tiebreaker is the head-to-head record of those teams against one another, followed by precedence for a division leader (which is not likely to be relevant for any of the Bulls’ tiebreakers), followed by conference record.

The Bulls have already lost the head-to-head tiebreakers against the Raptors (1-2 in three games against them this season) and Pacers (1-3), so to surpass Toronto or stave off Indiana, they would need to finish a full game clear of them. 

The status of their tiebreakers against the Wizards (2-2, no matchups remaining) and Hawks (2-1, one matchup remaining) remain in the air, although the Bulls are currently on track to win both. In the case of the Hawks, the Bulls can clinch the head-to-head by winning their final matchup of the season on April 4. But even if they lose, they currently hold conference record advantages over both.

If the Bulls win two of their four remaining conference games — against the Hornets, Hawks, Bucks and Pistons — they will clinch the head-to-head tiebreak over the Wizards. The Bulls’ magic number — of Eastern Conference wins plus Eastern Conference losses by Atlanta — to clinch the tiebreak against the Hawks is five (unless, of course, they win their upcoming game against them and clinch the head-to-head).

Also working in the Bulls’ favor? Based on the combined win percentage of their remaining opponents, they have the easiest remaining schedule of the teams in their area code.

What those numbers don’t account for, though, is the impending West Coast road trip the Bulls now face with their season on the line.

That swing begins in Portland against the Trail Blazers, who the Bulls beat 129-121 in Chicago on Feb. 4, on Friday, then moves to Los Angeles for a Sunday-Monday back-to-back against the Lakers and Clippers. This is the first time this season the Bulls will see the Lakers, who are 11-7 since the trade deadline and fighting for their play-in lives — but remain without LeBron James for the time being. The Clippers mounted a 19-point comeback in a win in Chicago on Jan. 31, but will be without Paul George, who sprained his right knee earlier this week, this time around.

Then, it is back home for a second game against the Lakers before hitting the road again for Charlotte. Hosting the Grizzlies and Hawks (for a game with seeding implications) comes next, then a star-studded road trip to Milwaukee and Dallas. After that, the Bulls close the season at home against the Pistons, who they have not lost to since March 2019.

Those are the obstacles ahead, and the stakes are high. The Bulls have at times this season flashed the ingredients of a team capable of rattling cages in the playoffs. But the stretch run will decide if they get the chance to prove it.