The Numbers don't lie: Giannis is MVP

Atlas carried the world on his shoulders, but at least he couldn’t add further burden on top of that weight. Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is the NBA’s version of Atlas, putting up incomparable per-game stats last year that had only ever been accomplished previously by … him. But unlike his counterpart in Greek mythology, Antetokounmpo threw even more on top of that uniquely heavy load in 2022-23.

It goes without saying that Antetokounmpo’s new numbers are, once again, a first in history. He’s doing more than ever, not only in comparison to himself, but in comparison to the rest of the NBA. 

The means by which he has added to his workload are telling.  

In most facets of the game, Antetokounmpo hasn’t changed an iota. He is taking the same frequency of shots from the midrange (and a smaller share from behind the 3-point arc). He is setting screens virtually the same amount. He is shooting out of post ups with the same frequency. In some areas of the game, he’s actually scaled back; he’s taking fewer shots out of cuts and fewer out of isolation.

In fact, Antetokounmpo has most of all added to his workload in three interconnected areas: handling the ball (especially in pick and rolls), driving the rock, and shooting at the rim. Those are arguably three of the more burdensome and taxing components of offense.

Antetokounmpo is controlling the ball more than ever. He’s touching the ball more this season, and when he does have the ball, he’s holding it for longer and dribbling more often. In that light, it can only be with great intentionality that he’s not taking fewer jumpers and not settling for lower-effort ways to impact play. Antetokounmpo eschews the easy and focuses on the difficult.

His added opportunities as a ballhandler are being spent on cannonball drives. And those added drives propel Antetokounmpo more often to the rim, which is resulting in more shots within the paint. There is direct causation between the three components of the game that Antetokounmpo has added to his offensive diet. Combining all three into a vicious dunk in traffic, which would be the highlight of virtually any player’s career, has become a commonality for Antetokounmpo this season.

The payoff has been astounding. He is second in the league in dunks despite missing games recently -- he’s shockingly never led the league in dunks in his career. (As far as dunks per game, his 3.59 is the seventh-highest total in any season among players with at least 100 dunks since 1996-97.) Furthermore, among all players with 40 or more crams this season, he also has the lowest percentage of his dunks -- only just over half -- assisted by a teammate. That mark is near the top historically, too.

As the player both creating and finishing opportunities, starting with the ball outside the arc and finishing by powering it inside the rim, Antetokounmpo is both the missile and the bazooka that fires it. He combines the finishing of a dominant center with the creation of a dynamic guard. Because of that, he spends a lot of time moving between areas of the court -- a recipe for physicality.

If there was a stat for most contact taken on the court, Antetokounmpo would surely be at or near the top. As it is, he leads the league in personal fouls committed against him by more than a full foul. His 9.4 fouls drawn per game is actually the highest in the NBA Advanced Stats database since 2010-11. Specifically in regards to his drives, Antetokounmpo is also drawing a rate of fouls this season, at 17.2 percent of his drives, higher than last year’s 14.5; he’s not just driving more, but a larger share of those drives are resulting in contact. He has always played a taxing game, but never has his approach exposed him to as physical a toll as it is this season. 

Comparing Antetokounmpo to past versions of himself sheds great light on the current Bucks and Antetokounmpo's place in history. He’s always been one of one throughout NBA history. But comparing him to other MVP candidates around the league similarly reveals the uniqueness of Antetokounmpo's place in the league’s present.

The league of course is in the midst of an offensive explosion, with 2022-23 setting a new record for offensive rating set previously in 2020-21, which broke the record previously set in 2019-20, which broke the record previously set in 2018-19, which … you get the point. And Antetokounmpo may be a fabulous scorer, but he’s far from the only one in the NBA. He is currently one of five players averaging at least 30 points per game; the only other season more than three players reached that threshold was in 1961-62, when Elgin Baylor, Walt Bellamy, Wilt Chamberlain, Bob Pettit, Oscar Robertson, and Jerry West all hit the 30-points-per-game mark. Today’s five may form the foundation of the MVP race, along with two-time reigning MVP Nikola Jokić and two-time Finals MVP Kevin Durant.

There’s no surefire MVP, not in a year with so many players performing at such extraordinary levels. (That he is an All Star is without question, and you can help put him in the game here.) But there are plenty of MVP cases to be made for Antetokounmpo. His offensive workload is arguably the most of any other player on the list, and he’s equally dominant on the defensive end of the court.

On top of that, Antetokounmpo does all this work in fewer minutes than most of his fellow stars. He is sixth in shots attempted per game and fourth in scoring. Yet he’s 52nd in minutes played per game; still, he doesn’t ignore the grunt work when he’s playing. He’s third in the league in rebounds per game. Furthermore, because he rarely shoots triples, he doesn’t get to avoid contact outside the arc. All told, there’s no moment or area on the court where he can rest, or even avoid contact, on either end.

Perhaps most frightening, he’s getting better. Before his injury, from Dec. 19 to Jan. 4, he averaged 39.1 points and 14.9 rebounds per game in eight contests -- becoming the first to do that since the 1980s. He hit the 40-point threshold in five games, including back-to-back 40-point, 20-rebound games -- becoming the first to do that since the 1980s, too. He scored a career high 55 points against the Washington Wizards on Jan. 3. Then he returned on Jan. 23 from a five-game absence due to injury to score 20 points in a perfect 6-for-6 shooting display in the first quarter against the Detroit Pistons, all but putting the game to bed early.

There have been mind-bending bursts of offensive brilliance across the league this season, but as always, Antetokounmpo has his own unique pocket of history to claim.

The Bucks have needed every ounce of effort Antetokounmpo has to offer. The defense has remained stout throughout the season after a blazing start, currently ranking second in points allowed per 100 possessions. But the offense is lagging behind. What success the Bucks do have scoring the basketball is increasingly coming as a result of Antetokounmpo’s brilliance. 

And he’s been up to the challenge. It’s hard to imagine a player doing more than Antetokounmpo at the moment. That was the case prior to this season for him, when he was already setting historical benchmarks, but it’s especially the case now that he’s breaking his own former records. He has more taxing a role, faces more contact, and carries more of a burden. In that frame of light, it’s shocking that he’s missed only six games throughout the season. He’s holding up unbelievably well to his new position of holding up the world and then some. 

What would have happened if Atlas threw more on his back when holding up the world? It would have been hard to say. But now there’s precedent: in the case of Antetokounmpo adding more on his enormously broad shoulders, the only result is more and more astounding success. From one Greek Freak to another, then: quit slacking carrying just the world on your shoulders. There’s always a bigger load to lug.