The Warriors have five games left in the regular season, and entering Friday’s slate of NBA action, it’s mathematically possible that the Dubs finish in five different positions in the Western Conference.
Trying to figure out every possible playoff seeding scenario when only two games separates third place from sixth place in the Western Conference with just over a week left in the season is an exercise that we won’t be doing in this space, but here’s one thing every Warriors fan should know: The Warriors will clinch a playoff spot with their next win or a Timberwolves loss.
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Where We’re At Now
The Dubs currently sit in fourth place in the West, two games ahead of their Saturday evening opponent, the Utah Jazz. Coincidentally, if the playoffs began today, the Warriors would be matched up with Utah in the first round. But the playoffs don’t begin today, and with the Warriors currently sporting an identical record (48-29) to the Mavs, and the Jazz and Nuggets (both 46-31), there very well can be plenty of movement in the standings over the final nine days of the regular season.
Also, keep an eye on the Timberwolves (43-34). Minnesota is currently in position to be the top seed in the Western Conference Play-In Tournament, and while they would need to be perfect the rest of the way and get a lot of help from others to catch the Warriors, their chances of potentially moving up to a secure playoff berth will be boosted if they can pull off a win in Denver tonight.
Tie-Breakers of Concern
Should the Warriors finish the regular season with the same record as Dallas, Utah, Denver or Minnesota, it’s worth noting the tie-breaker situation with each team. A win on Saturday would give the Dubs the tie-breaker over the Jazz, as Golden State has won two of its first three matchups with Utah this season. A Warriors loss on Saturday, however, would tie the head-to-head season series at two games apiece for the Dubs and Jazz, and Utah would win a potential tiebreaker with the Warriors by virtue of their won-loss record within the conference.
For what it’s worth, the Warriors would lose the tiebreakers with Dallas, Denver and Minnesota should it come down to that. And in the event that the Warriors are tied with two other teams in the standings, that creates a whole new dynamic with several possible outcomes that we won’t address for now. But if you’ve ever wondered why the NBA has divisions within conferences, settling tiebreakers among three or more teams is one of the reasons, as a division leader would win the tiebreaker over a team not leading their division. That could come into play next weekend with Utah and Denver currently tied for first place in the Northwest Division.
Western Conference Standings (Through Games Played March 31)
Remaining Schedule
Getting back to the Dubs, even if they were to clinch a playoff berth tonight (Minnesota plays at Denver tonight) or tomorrow (Warriors vs. Utah), there would still be plenty at stake over the final week of the regular season. Following Saturday’s game, the Dubs remaining schedule is at Sacramento on Sunday, vs. the Lakers on Thursday, at San Antonio on April 9 and at New Orleans on April 10. The Dubs’ opponents for those final four games are all vying for the final two spots in the play-in tournament, which will eventually determine the first-round playoff opponents for Phoenix and Memphis.
What Is Currently Confirmed in the West
The only things that are for certain in the Western Conference playoff picture is the Suns and Grizzlies have the top two spots locked in, respectively. The Mavericks have secured a playoff berth but can finish anywhere between third and sixth place.
After that, there are several possible outcomes with four teams battling for the final three playoff berths. So yeah, plenty at stake for the remainder of the regular season!