The Chicago Bulls (40-42) hit the road to take on the Toronto Raptors (41-41) at Scotiabank Arena in a win or go home contest to decide who will survive at least one more day to meet the Miami Heat on the road Friday for the Eastern Conference’s 8th and final berth to the NBA Playoffs.
Here are a few things fans can keep an eye on tonight while watching the Bulls and Raptors tangle. Everyone can catch the game on ESPN beginning at 6 pm CST.
DO OR DIE TIME
Although the rosters of the Bulls and Raptors are vastly different in a physical sense, the deciding factors in tonight’s matchup could honestly go either way. Toronto’s 41-41 regular season — one game better than Chicago’s 40-42 — which included a 27-14 (.659) mark at home and 2-1 record against the Bulls, ended up being the deciding reason tonight’s contest is taking place in Canada and not the Windy City.
Over their last 10 games, the Raptors went 6-4, averaging 112.6 points, 43.6 rebounds, 26.1 assists, 10.1 steals and 5.6 blocks per game while shooting 47.0% from the field. They held opponents to just 105.9 points per game.
Chicago also went 6-4 over their last 10 games, averaging 112.8 points, 40.1 rebounds, 26.5 assists, 9.3 steals and 4.7 blocks per game while shooting 50.3% from the field. The Bulls held their opponents to 106.8 points.
“GIMME DAT!”
Defensively, both the Bulls and Raptors live by similar beliefs. Toronto isn’t shy when it comes to physicality. They’ve been aggressive in employing traps, jumping passing lanes and having active hands. They led the league with 18.1 deflections per game, and forced opponents to commit on average 16.7 turnovers, ranking second overall. Chicago wasn’t too shabby in both of these categories either. The Bulls finished the season ranked 4th with 15.4 deflections per game and 8th in opponent turnovers at 15.0 per game.
However, two big reasons could decide who wins tonight. All-in-all, Toronto has done an incredible job of protecting the ball, committing only 11.7 miscues per game, the best in the NBA. The Bulls were also good, committing, on average, just 13.4 per game, which ranked 8th.
Both squads also relied heavily on takeaways to power its offense. The Raptors led the league in scoring off opponent turnovers at 21.0 points per game, while Chicago (4th) wasn’t far behind, at 18.3. However, in the three games they played one another this season, Toronto’s in-your-face defensive pressure forced Chicago into committing 57 turnovers (19.0 per game), while the Raptors stayed relatively calm when Chicago amped up its pressure, fumbling only 34 times (11.3 per game). Thus, tonight, the Bulls have to do a far better job of staying composed and protecting the ball.
WINDOW WASHING
The second major factor leaning in Toronto’s favor is their overall length and athleticism. The Raptors are very bouncy at both ends of the floor which helps them protect the rim and gain extra offensive possessions.
They’re a terrific rebounding squad, especially on the offensive glass, as they finished second in the league with 12.7 offensive rebounds per game, and second overall in second-chance scoring at 16.4 points per game.
The Bulls, to put it politely, were not a good offensive rebounding team, finishing 28th out of 30 with an average of just 8.5 per game. Chicago, was, however, top 10 when it came to defensive rebounding, averaging 33.9 per game (9th).
But truth be told, the Raptors’ length with the likes of Pascal Siakam (6’8), OG Anunoby (6’7) and Scottie Barnes (6’8) is simply a bad matchup for Chicago’s most trusted forward pairing of DeMar DeRozan (6’6) and Alex Caruso (6’5).
Need proof? Look no further than the last time the Bulls and Raptors met in Toronto on February 28th. The Raptors won, 104-98, despite shooting 40.4% while Chicago was a blistering 52.1% from the field.
How can that be, you ask?
Well, thanks mainly to their size advantage over the Bulls, Toronto was able to attempt 94 shots to Chicago’s 71 because they finished +13 in offensive rebounds (19-6) and +8 in turnovers (20-12). Furthermore, the Bulls’ 20 turnovers led to 21 fastbreak points for the Raptors, and six of their 19 offensive rebounds that night (and seven of their 15 second-chance points) came during the fourth quarter, helping Toronto close the game down the stretch.
WHO’S READY?
For Chicago to turn the tables and end up as the last one standing tonight, the Bulls are going to need someone unexpected to deliver big-time results.
So far Toronto has done an outstanding job of suffocating DeRozan’s offensive game, holding the Bulls All-Star to 10.5-points below his season average. The Raptors have trapped and double-teamed DeRozan all over the floor to neutralize him, keeping him away from his favorite spots on the floor, as well as frustrating him into committing costly turnovers and taking bad shots. Chances are the Raptors are going to try to do the same tonight, so it’s vital Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević fill the void by delivering a high level of production, as well as someone else to help LaVine carry the freight.
The most logical players that need to come through in the clutch for the Bulls tonight will be Patrick Beverley and Alex Caruso. Neither is a consistent, let alone dead-eye outside shooter. Because of that, look for Toronto’s defense to leave both Beverley and Caruso alone for most of the game, daring them both to shoot.
To that end, one or both will simply have to hit some shots to force the Raptors to adjust and return to playing a more conventional defense, which would lessen the pressure on DeRozan, LaVine and Vučević. If Beverley and/or Caruso can take advantage of being left alone, the Bulls’ chances of having a good night skyrocket. But if they don’t shoot well, look for Bulls Head Coach Billy Donovan to give Coby White extra run as he and LaVine are without question the team’s best long-distance options.