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Ask Sam Mailbag: Play-in scenario update, Free Agency look-ahead and more

Parker Lerdal: Will the Bulls make it to the NBA Draft Lottery this year if they are eliminated in the playoff contention for the play-in tournament? 

Sam: If the Bulls don’t qualify for the playoffs by winning in the play-in tournament, they would be about 10th or 11th in the draft lottery. If they get through the play-in and into a first round series with their record they’d probably be just out side the lottery at No. 15. For comparison to last year’s draft, center Derrick Lively, who has been excellent for Dallas, was taken at No. 12. Atlanta guard Kobe Bufkin, who has mostly been in the G League, was taken at No. 15. Jaime Jaquez Jr. went No. 18 to Miami and at No. 19 was Brandin Podziemski to Golden State, the latter excellent producers for at least now play-in teams. I don’t watch much college basketball because of the low quality of play and general over-coaching, but I watched some NCAA tournament games to see the Purdue big man and Illinois. Which, of course was worth it as you rarely see 30-0 runs. Zach Edey looks questionable as an NBA player given how slow he is. I see him in the second round of mock drafts, which sounds about right. Seems about like high-scoring collegian Luka Garza, who’s mostly been G League. Though Edey seems to have a bit more with his patience and size, good hands and touch. Would be worth a seat toward the end of an NBA bench. The guy I saw whom the Bulls just have to get is this Tennessee guard/wing Dalton Knecht, who I see in the mock drafts anywhere from three to 20. He’s the guy why NBA executives so often fail. He’s 23, so they say little ceiling and pick some 19-year-old dunker who has no idea how to play basketball. Having not watched college ball, I hadn’t heard of him until last weekend. But he’s as NBA ready a player as I saw, and that’s who the Bulls need since they have made it clear they are — and I agree — not going near a rebuild and have little free agent market opportunities. This kid reflects the NBA now with a terrific shooting stroke and some ball handling and facilitating ability. He looks like he could start at small forward for the Bulls tomorrow in precisely what they need with shooting and another playmaker with enough size at the wing, though maybe more shooting guard. If I were the Bulls I’d be thrilled to add a player like that who can help your team immediately even if he’s never going to be Giannis or KD. NBA executives generally pursue those talents because they are job extenders; they get you multiple future contracts if you hit. I get it. Though your job should be to do the best for your team tomorrow.

Roman Blazys: The only way out of the hellish mediocrity that the Bulls are stuck in is to time a tank to coincide with a generational talent coming out of college in the draft. Maybe unload stars and get a nucleus of young players to build around; and as the young players develop have a tank season. I don't know. Just throwing darts. I cannot see what kind of moves Artūras could make in trades, free agency, and/or draft that would have a better outcome. I do know they are not winning decisively and not to take a risk is to have a losing record for sure. How to become champions from here, I don't know. I guess it is the law of averages catching up with the Bulls after the double three-peats. Do you have any ideas?

Sam: I generally offer several each week. Talk about crap shoot, dart board, the megamillions; hitting that draft lottery generational talent thing is too much luck and unlikely as the Bulls discovered in their 2017-21 draft madness. From continuity to consistency to competitiveness, one thing Bulls management has made clear is they’re not cleaning (house). So yes it has turned into a lot of C’s, which were familiar to me in school. But, hey, your fate can change. It seems for now like they’re looking at a fourth times a charm until they can get off Lonzo money’s after next season and have some determination on the fates of Zach LaVine and free agent DeMar DeRozan. Indications all season have been they want to extend DeRozan, at least short term, and at his age his market will be limited, so I assume he’d accept a good deal. Given LaVine and Patrick Williams coming off surgeries you figure they’ll at least start next season with the Bulls. So perhaps the issue becomes the makeup. Lonzo’s dad was on radio the other day to say he could be ready by next season, though I have my doubts for next season after being out this long. Though I eventually do expect him to return to the NBA. You don’t have to start DeRozan or LaVine. Do you begin a transition starting Coby, Ayo and Williams and use an exception to get an athletic power forward and give Donovan’s fast tempo game a chance? Maybe finish games with DeRozan and/or LaVine, at least to begin the season while looking for trade opportunities? We’ve acknowledged a lot depends on play-in week and what if they can draft my Tennessee guy? As far away from contending as the play-in looks, they show signs of not being that far away with a shaky Eastern Conference after Boston. Maybe just most of the same guys with a change of wardrobe?

Wayne Warner: Bulls 2024/25 Lineup: Coby White, Alex Caruso, Zach LaVine, Patrick Williams, Nikola Vučević? As much as I like DeRozan, hoping Bulls move on. With Ayo, Phillips, Dalen Terry, Bitim, Lonzo, & 2024 1st round pick off the bench…hopefully can trade Carter & Craig off payroll. 

Sam: I wouldn’t wager that lineup. We all assume they try to trade LaVine, as they have for about a year, but few seem to believe they can until he plays. Though you never say never in the NBA on trades; Zach’s been around this week and certainly looks good and I suspect will be at full strength during this summer when teams can get a look with the Bulls permission. So you never know. We also suspect Williams will return on the qualifying offer, but more likely off the bench for now since he doesn’t rebound enough to be the regular power forward. Like you, I assume Drummond moves on to perhaps a starting role somewhere. He’s had two productive seasons with the Bulls and has enhanced his value. We all love DeRozan, especially the media — OK, and more especially Billy for those fourth quarters — for with Zach away DeMar has been the go-to media rock for interviews. As welcoming as everyone is, DeMar’s the most and knows how to make your job easier with his analysis and comments. The truly great ones make their teammates and reporters better. But I agree it may be time to take the binky away and even if it means some crying and maybe a sleepless night or two, the kids eventually need to grow up and get out on their own sometime.

Emily Hanson: What’s your opinion on:
The Bulls losing whenever Zach or Zo is in the audience.
Our chances of getting home court advantage in the Play-In?
I like to look at the brighter side of things, so I think it’s both admirable and frustrating that the Bulls match their opponent. It’s good because it shows our spirit and strength, but it’s also bad because we don’t take teams below us as seriously as we should.

Sam: That one would rank right up there with blaming your team’s poor road record on the traveling staff. Ooops, which Doc Rivers actually did this week after the Bucks lost to the Grizzlies and Lizards (note to editors: no typo). That sounds like it might be one of those social media conspiracy theories which suggests you need to watch more actual TV. League Pass, mostly. I still believe the Bulls stay ahead of the Hawks even as Atlanta has been playing better. The Julius Randle surgery news with Anunoby still out probably decimates the Knicks, whom the Bulls play three times in the last 10 days with games against the Pistons and Wizards, whom we know have been Bulls killers this season. I’m still favoring a Bulls stretch run. Ninth or bust! 

Maddie Matias: I know a lot of fans — and even the media — want to blow up this roster because of the lack of results (and I’m aware we’re past the February trade deadline), but I like the team as it stands. From Zach and Coby’s scoring, DeMar’s veteran leadership, Ayo and AC’s improvement, giving younger players some minutes, etc. the only problem I see is staying consistent (and healthy). I hope we keep some of the same guys (especially Deebo). I’m curious to see how things unfold during the offseason, even with Billy Donovan as coach. The guys seem to genuinely respect and appreciate his methods, along with his ability to trust everyone on the court. 

Sam: It is a likable team, and the fan support has remained positive at home with generally enthusiastic crowds in the United Center. So it is encouraging that despite the losing record the fans have been into it. That’s got a lot to do with the way guys like Alex Caruso, Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White play and as many comebacks and late game exciting wins they’ve had. The Einstein quote of Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results often comes up. Einstein likely never said it and it supposedly goes back to the 18th century, but it’s difficult to believe the Bulls unless they have a big playoff upset could yet again return next season in similar personnel form and structure. 

Troy Coford: How many bulls players are free agents this summer?

Sam: DeRozan, Drummond, Williams (restricted and Bulls can match offer or give him a qualifying one-year deal for about $13 million). Plus two-way and 10-day players have some non-guaranteed deals. The early projections are DeRozan and Williams return and not Drummond.

Art Alenik: Rondo announced his retirement. Bulls should call him to find out if he’s interested in coaching. Probably not, as he said he wants to spend more time with his kids. But just in case… call him now. If not as a coach, maybe a ‘consultant’.  Imagine what he could teach Coby & Ayo.

Sam: Who knew he wasn’t retired? There’s always been suggestions than Rondo would be a future coach, and he both does know the game and as he showed with the Bulls in the Little Three era of Butler, Wade and Rondo the young players gravitate toward him. He is, however, a bit of an acquired taste with an edge to him, and NBA staffs generally are not made up that way anymore. The coach needs a comfort level with his staff and I haven’t seen a connection with Donovan. Our player-to-coach in the future now is Caruso. It seems like the current staff has done some good things with Coby and Ayo already, so there’s no reason not to ride with them. I’d also guess for now most NBA teams would want to hold off on Rondo until his recent gun arrest is resolved. Yes, keep me from making any comments on the Bulls shooting deficiencies.  

Bart Goldberg: Patrick Williams is the most over-rated player in modern Bulls history. I don’t want this to sound personal as I am confident that he is a very nice guy (maybe too nice for the NBA). He averaged 9 ppg and 4 rpg at FSU and that was an incredibly accurate predictor of what he would do with the Bulls. But for four years many Bulls fans have talked as if he is the cornerstone of our future. We should have traded him after his first year when he still had some value (but even you were against that). He simply does not have what it takes to play in the NBA; no standout skill (I am convinced that even his 3 pt shooting would decline if other teams were not cheating off of him). Awful rebounder. Poor ball handler. No intensity or other intangibles to compensate. He would not even be a rotation player with any other team. Hollinger’s PER stats tell the tale: in the three years he has played enough games he has ranked as the 60th, 61st, and 67th best Power Forward. This means that nearly every team had two PF’s better than him! To those that think his defense is a big asset: according to the ratings at NBA.com he ranked as the 113th best defender at ANY forward position this year. To think he is going to be any better at SF is delusional. The Bulls simply need to move on. Maybe we get lucky with a G Leaguer. We know what we have with him and it is not enough.

Sam: Yeah, but other than that? I doubt Williams has much or any value now as a restricted free agent who then would be guaranteed just one season with a new team without a new contract and who missed half the season and had surgery. I'd still want to give him a shot at wing, which he’s said he feels is his best position. And if he has one, that’s likely it as I agree he hasn’t rebounded enough to be a regular power forward. Though I’m not as convinced as you are for now. The complication, as everyone has talked about and predicted, is they seem intent on keeping DeRozan at small forward. Which is the big ask. Do you remain conservative and ride with DeMar knowing he’s your best player and one of the best closers in the NBA? Or do you take a chance and ride with Williams in the Lauri Markkanen mode and not give up on a player who’s regressed some with less opportunity but whom you believe has an upside? Maybe the question which none of us have any clue about is whether the Bulls still believe Williams has that upside they want to invest in. I guess I know where you are. Yes, Markkanen was better with the Bulls early in his career averaging about 19 and 9, but apparently to accommodate Williams they put him in a role that lessened his production. He didn’t feel comfortable as a standstill shooter and it showed. Maybe Patrick is too nice; Lauri showed his displeasure. Williams never does. But maybe that potential is burning on the inside if just given the opportunity. It’s another of the questions we’re waiting to see answered perhaps this summer.

Mike Sutera: I fully expect us to lose that back to back to Wiz and Pistons like the Bucks just did; lol

Sam: It is a tough stretch, obviously, based on season results. Can I do an LOL, too? It’s also why you wanted to get to seven or eight in that play-in tournament. Because after the Celtics, the East looks like it is collapsing. The Bucks, Knicks and Cavaliers all have been slumping and whomever ends up second has again a good chance of being upset by a play-in team. The Bucks have been a .500 team for two months since Doc Rivers took over. Lillard and Middleton have had injuries, which is the issue when you buy names of older all stars like the Suns have, also. See: Lakers, Warriors. Experience is vital in sports; except when it’s old. The tough part is knowing when. The big bucks and all that. Unfortunately in Milwaukee, it’s been the little Bucks. Giannis also has been soldiering through, but obviously is hurting, and he’s been getting injuries in almost every playoffs. There’s been rumblings in Milwaukee of discontent about the way he’s dictated so much this season, and they could be looking at another first round ouster. As could the stumbling Cavaliers with Donovan Mitchell rumored to be opting out after next season. Hey, Zach trade? Nah, too soon for all that, but the way the East is shaping up (or down) there could be plenty of speculation to come. 

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