I advised to take the over.
I knew that one would be correct about the Bulls this season, though it didn't go quite as I figured the last few weeks. Still, 46 wins was safely over all the Las Vegas preseason wins predictions for the Bulls that mostly had them at 42.5 or 43.5. Not being a gambler I'm still working on whether you can get paid if they led at halftime.
Anyway, I don't believe I can accept anything worth more than $25 except New York pizza slices and cannolis.
I actually came pretty close with my Bulls wins prediction season, just a bit on the optimistic side with a fifth place finish in the Eastern Conference. Here's what I wrote back in October:
"This is a big jump, but it is the largest roster overhaul in the league. And with veteran All-Stars. There'll be talk about chemistry and meshing and such. But in this offensive-oriented NBA they should match anyone."
The much-improved Bulls out-performed their preseason expectations.
I was leaning toward 50 wins, but settled for a projection of 48. And as Maxwell Smart used to say in one of my favorite antiquated references, Missed it by that much!
So in the interest of full disclosure, which you'll only get in the media despite the doubts elsewhere, I was right there with the Bulls, and relatively close elsewhere.
Though I did predict the Brooklyn Nets would win the East.
Missed it by that much!
And now that they are through the play-in they do have a chance to represent the Eastern Conference. Silly me. I was sure Kyrie would get vaccinated for the good of the team that he built by persuading Kevin Durant to sign there with him. Though I am thankful at my age I still can be naively innocent about some things; mostly Kyrie related, I guess.
My biggest Eastern Conference miss was the Cleveland Cavaliers, whom I had uncompetitive. And if the season lasted three more weeks they might have gotten there. Now they need to win Friday or it's not even the playoffs and not such a surprising season after all. I had them 13th just ahead of Orlando and Detroit. Who, by the way, you probably can lock into those spots for the next four or five years.
My other surprise and apologies to Michael Jordan, as if he needs it, was the Hornets 12th. I had the Raptors inching into the play-in when them finishing fifth might have been the biggest surprise since "eh" actually was added to the Oxford dictionary.
My Eastern Conference preseason top eight was, in order: Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Miami, Philadelphia, Bulls, Atlanta, Boston and the Knicks. Not quite sure how I fell for that Kemba Walker/Evan Fournier offseason. The Celtics still surprise me, especially after the Bulls made them cry after that November collapse game.
The Boston Celtics hit a low-point in their season after a loss to DeMar DeRozan and the Bulls in Boston.
In the West, which ha-ha won fewer games against the East this season, I did OK except for picking the Lakers fourth. Hey, most everyone else had them first!
I misjudged the intensity of the Rudy Gobert/Donovan Mitchell feud and had the Jazz first with the Suns second and Nuggets third, which was yet another reason Nikola Jokic shouldn't be MVP. But more on that later. I did have the Grizzlies fifth, the Warriors sixth and then Dallas and the Clippers. And I had the Timberwolves in the play-in, but not the Pelicans.
So MVP?
I guessed Kevin Durant, who might have been if he hadn't missed two months. Because even with all the crazy stuff with Kyrie Irving and the trade of James Harden they still finished in seventh, just two games behind the Bulls. My next four were Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Donovan Mitchell and LeBron James. I'd vote for Joel Embiid now, though it seems from the straw polls I've seen Nikola Jokic will repeat.
If he does it should set back the award for decades. Because it will have overlooked the essence of the award, at least for NBA purposes.
Because the MVP is about what have you done and what have you done for your team. It's always been a blend award of best talent with how much that affects your team in the standings.
Which is why Bill Russell beat Wilt Chamberlain so often when Wilt could do everything better than Russell.
Why there wasn't a day in his life when Charles Barkley was a better player than Michael Jordan, but why Barkley deserved the award and won it in 1993 for the Suns with the league's best record.
When Steve Nash won back to back he wasn't close to the best player in the league. But he made his team as good as any in the league. The 76ers finished in a tie for second place in the superior conference.
Denver basically not playing a meaningful game all season tied with Toronto for the 10th best record in the NBA. What, no Pascal Siakam in the top five?
I'm also probably a little biased because in the only time all season I saw an entire Jokic game, Nikola Vucevic absolutely kicked his ass.
The Bulls won 109-97 outscoring the Nuggets by 15 points in the second half. Jokic had 17 points and shot six of 17. And he wasn't playing with stiffs. Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green and Will Barton all have been quality players in the league. And the Bulls started rookie Ayo Dosunmu and castoff Derrick Jones Jr. in that game. Jokic broke down crying about his incompetence after that game. OK, I made that up, but he should have. He skipped the other game against the Bulls. Vucevic-itis?
Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (left) is looking to become the second back-to-back MVP in the past five seasons.
I'm pretty sure if Jokic wins it will rank as one of the league's worst teams ever to have an MVP. It will say the majority of voters have followed baseball in no longer watching the games (though I get that with baseball) and base achievement more on mathematical theories.
Russell Westbrook won in 2017 for also a 10th place team, though that was thanks to that never-be-broken record he broke of triple doubles. I know Jokic has something like that with an accumulation of points, rebounds and assists—you know like Wilt had about every year when Russell beat him—and Jokic is great, I agree. He actually is one of my favorite players in the league to watch, a beautiful passer who plays such an intelligent game, a man who wonderfully belies the athletic prerequisites of the game. I have him top three or four for sure. Which is a great season. That's hardly a condemnation. But he's also got the ball all-the-time.
How do you win a second straight MVP when in that second season your team had a poorer record and finished lower in the standings? And Jamal Murray missed the last six months of last season.
But how about in this era of perimeter play and scoring, when the center position supposedly is antiquated, that a center can lead the league in scoring. While it's also not formula based, and I hate to reveal too much of a sentimental side, I like to see the award spread around because it isn't scientific and there is no determined blueprint.
Looking it at again, I'd probably select Embiid, Giannis, Devin Booker, Jokic and Luka Doncic.
Mikal Bridges (left) has played every game this season and helped lead Phoenix's defense to elite status.
Defensive Player of the Year?
I had Marcus Smart preseason, which still would be a legitimate choice at the end of the season. Centers win this award a lot, and especially now it makes even less sense because the game is so perimeter oriented and defenses so predicated on switching on the perimeter. Maybe among centers you could figure Bam Adebayo being able to do that, though I prefer, you know, defenders. Before the season I went with Draymond Green second and Jrue Holiday third. Holiday won't win, but if I need one defensive man-on-man play at the end of a game, he'd be my choice.
Though at the end of the regular season I'd go with the Suns Mikal Bridges. Although there are metrics for this, defense is the most difficult to measure, especially since every team switches to offset pick-and-roll offenses that absolutely everyone uses. It's the most eye test award. But not only does Bridges match up with the numbers whatever they are and take on the most difficult matchups, but he plays.
The guy has been in the NBA for four years and hasn't missed one game. Not one! Yes, he's Superman. Especially in this NBA. It's basically unheard of, especially for a starter.
Only five players this season played every game. It's the fewest since the 82-game season began in 1967. The other four are role player types. Bridges is the only premier regular, and on the best team in the league. And averaging double figures and having raised his scoring average every season he's been in the league. Hold on, maybe I'd vote for him for MVP. After Bridges for this season I'd go with Smart and Holiday.
Scottie Barnes (left) has been electrifying for a competitive Raptors team.
Rookie of the Year?
Preseason I selected Cade Cunningham, which was a duh as the first pick and which thus indicated I had no idea since I hadn't seen any of them play. You know, they weren't in the NBA.
Cunningham did end up as the leading rookie scorer after missing the early part of the season and starting slowly with injuries. He had some big games and played well, but didn't play a lot with several absences during the season, a bad sign when you are 20 years old with no surgeries.
I'd probably go with Toronto's Scottie Barnes barely over the Cavs' Evan Mobley, the latter whom I thought struggled much more when Jarrett Allen got hurt and the Cavs began to plummet in the standings. Attendance does matter, especially in this era's I'll-let-you-know-if-I'm-playing NBA. So I'd probably go with Orlando's Franz Wagner third after Barnes and Mobley. Though Wagner was more than just on time. He's very clever with the ball. It's turned out to be a pretty good rookie class.
Tyler Herro (left) will likely run away with Sixth Man of the Year award as the primary shot-taker for the 1st place Heat.
Sixth Man?
OK, I went a little homer here with Alex Caruso. I knew he basically had no chance to win because he wouldn't score enough. But I wanted to at least make the point of his value, which was important until he was knocked out by that Grayson Allen foul. I did continue on the homer track with Derrick Rose second, and he sure could have been if not for the ankle surgery. Tyler Herro was pretty much everyone's preseason favorite. And he should win as one of the most valuable players for the No. 1 team in the East.
I had Patty Mills third, and he had a good season and played 81 games. But with all the injuries and non-compliance he had to start more than half the games, which disqualified him. No one is close to Herro. But maybe second for someone else from the Suns with Coby White's buddy Cam Johnson (Coby has a shot for awhile) over Cam Payne and last year's winner Jordan Clarkson.
Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane has been one of the team's better defenders while shooting an elite 43.6% from the 3-point line.
Most Improved?
I had the correct team. I went with Jaren Jackson Jr., who had a good comeback season after so many injuries with the true surprise team of the season, the Grizzlies. It's perhaps the most arbitrary award because many favor Ja Morant this season. But to me he was such a high draft pick he was supposed to improve a lot. And he did. I prefer the guys who we weren't sure would improve that much and I went preseason with OG Anunoby and old buddy Daniel Gafford, who actually regressed without Russell Westbrook's lob passes. Hey, there's a guy who liked playing with Westbrook.
I had Robert Williams as a possible along with Tyrese Maxey, which would have been good guesses until Williams got hurt.
Though now I'd go with Jimmy Butler with a shot, former No. 30 pick Desmond Bane of the Grizzlies. Bane's become a heck of a two-way player as the last pick in the first round. Then probably late first rounder Dejounte Murray and the Warriors' Jordan Poole in a field with some other good choices like Darius Garland, Miles Bridges and even old buddy Wendell Carter Jr.
Monty Williams has led the Suns to a franchise-record 64 wins, making him a strong choice for Coach of the Year.
Coach of the Year?
I went preseason with Erik Spoelstra, long overlooked and now much respected, who'll probably be overlooked again as good a job as he did with so many major injuries and Miami winning the conference.
Spoelstra really deserves it and is a terrific coach with a good system of play and one of the few who'll stand up to players and who perhaps Jimmy Butler fears. I had Quin Snyder second and then a tie with Mike Malone and Billy Donovan to at least give Donovan an acknowledgement. He was in there for awhile.
I'd guess Monty Williams wins for really being the best coach the last two years as Tom Thibodeau stole it with that late run last year and a pretty bad roster.
The coach whose team surprised the most usually wins the award, and that is Memphis' Taylor Jenkins. They had the second best record in the league and played about a third of the season without their best player, Morant, and had a better record without him. Cleveland's J.B. Bickerstaff was a favorite in the first half and Ime Udoka for the second half. Jenkins' season has been remarkable.
But the winning order probably will be Williams before second-most-overlooked Spoelstra and Jenkins. I'm good with any of the three winning. Choose? OK, Williams.
All-NBA?
This usually isn't difficult as you just name the 15 best and then the injured guys get dropped. Here's who I had preseason:
First team: Stephen Curry, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic.
Second team: Donovan Mitchell, James Harden, Jimmy Butler, Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid.
Third team: Trae Young, Devin Booker, Zach LaVine, Jaylen Brown, Anthony Davis.
So off went Anthony Davis, and I probably should have known better. It's iffy with both Durant and LeBron, but having played in the mid-50s games I guess it's OK. But that is a lot of missed games. Zach with his in and out knee issues gets replaced by DeMar DeRozan.
First team is generally the MVP vote, and I'll make Jokic a forward since he plays mostly outside anyway.
So with the regular season over my First team is: Embiid, Jokic, Giannis, Booker and Luka Doncic, the latter also sort of a guard as positions don't matter much in this anymore.
Second team: Ja Morant, Steph Curry, DeRozan, LeBron and Bam Adebayo.
Third team: Jayson Tatum (though I could be talked into Jaylen Brown), Jimmy Butler, Chris Paul, Pascal Siakam and Karl-Anthony Towns.