As the Warriors prepare to embark on the remainder of their regular season journey, here are a few storylines to keep an eye on.
Last week I took a look at some of the most noteworthy superlatives of the Warriors’ season thus far. Now, as the Warriors prepare to embark on the remainder of their regular season journey, here are a few storylines I’m keeping my eye on:
1. The Record
Despite the fact that Steve Kerr just coached the Western Conference to an All-Star Game victory over the East, that unfortunately does nothing for the Warriors as far as sewing up home court advantage throughout the postseason, a possibility that – while realistic - remains far off in the distance. Heck, they haven’t so much as clinched a playoff spot yet. Last season, the Phoenix Suns missed the playoffs despite having 48 wins, and while the Dubs are certainly on pace to eclipse that number, there is still plenty left to be decided. At 42-9, the Warriors sit 4.0 games above the Memphis Grizzlies atop the Western Conference standings with 31 games left to play. Based on the data of the last five seasons, the average winning percentage to guarantee the first-seed in the Western Conference playoffs has been .713, meaning the Warriors would need to finish no worse than 59-23 in order to exceed that rate.
Ironically, that magic number of 59 wins carries added significance beyond the Warriors’ position within their own conference; it also has very much to do with their standing in franchise history. In 1975-76, the Warriors went 59-23, setting the franchise record for most wins in a season on their way to a defeat in the Western Conference Finals. So, in order to finish with the best record in franchise history, this year’s team can lose no more than 13 more games throughout the rest of the season. Considering they’ve only lost nine up to this point, that goal certainly seems within reach, but the schedule won’t make it easy on them. After the Dubs return to post-Break action on Friday when they host the defending champion San Antonio Spurs, they’ll head out on a six-game road trip, their longest remaining trek away from home for the remainder of the season. Beyond that, they’ll play 21 of their final 31 games, including 10 straight in a 19-day stretch spanning March and April, against teams currently over .500. So, their work is cut out for them.
If things break the right way, however, the Dubs have a shot at making some league history as well. By extrapolating the Warriors’ current winning percentage of .824 for a full 82-game season, they’re currently on pace to finish the season with a record of 68-14. Now, while that calculation doesn’t account for things like strength of remaining schedule or road back-to-backs, it does give us a general idea of the kind of company this team is flirting with in the record books. Only five teams in NBA history have finished with at least 68 wins, and only three have ever won more than that. Four of those five teams won the NBA Championship, and in fact, only three of the 16 teams to ever win at least 65 games failed to hoist the Larry O’Brien trophy. Steve Kerr will be the first to tell you his team is not focused on those accolades at the moment, but if the Warriors are able to lock up the top seed in the West while a 68-win (give or take a couple) season is still possible, it will be interesting to see how he balances preserving his lineup for the playoffs against giving his team a chance to make some regular season history.
2. The Splash Brothers
It’s hard to envision a scenario in which the Foot Locker Three-Point Contest could have turned out better for the Warriors and their fans. Not only did Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson post the two highest individual rounds of the competition, Curry set a new contest record with 27 points in the final round to take home the title. It was a fitting stake to their claim as the best shooting backcourt in NBA history, an argument that will likely only be more in their favor by the time this season is all said and done, as they’re on pace for their best season yet as a duo. Curry, who’s averaged 3.2 three-pointers per game this season, is tied for the league-lead with 161 made-treys, while Thompson isn’t far behind with 155. While Curry is currently on pace to finish with 13 fewer makes than his own NBA-record 272 three-pointers set in 2012-13, he’s actually made three more treys this season than he had through the same amount of games that year. While that indicates that he finished with quite a flurry in that record-setting campaign, it also proves that he’s capable of performing at an even higher clip, so while a new record is unlikely, it’s certainly not out of the question.
Thompson, on the other hand, is going to leave his personal best in the dust. Making an average of 3.1 three-pointers per game, Thompson is on pace to finish the year with 251 total treys, crushing his previous high of 223 made last season. Thus, it comes as no surprise that the Splash Brothers are on pace for far and away their best three-point shooting season as a pair. With Curry’s 259 and Thompson’s 251, the duo is on pace to finish the regular season with a whopping 510 combined treys, obliterating their own NBA record for most combined three-pointers by teammates of 484 set last season. They won’t get a trophy for that, which is probably a good thing considering they’re likely to break it again next year, but it’s an interesting individual and combined pursuit to keep an eye on moving forward.
3. The Awards
Speaking of trophies, several of the Dubs have a chance at bringing home some individual hardware as they attempt to achieve the ultimate team goal of an NBA Championship. First, there’s Kerr, who if it weren’t for Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer, would likely be the leading candidate at this point for NBA Coach of the Year. If the Warriors finish well and the Hawks drop off a tad from their torrid pace, that may open the door for Kerr to win the award in his first year as a head coach. Next, Curry opens the unofficial second half of the season as the leading MVP candidate. As the best player on the best team in the league thus far, Curry has both the individual and team credentials to take home his first career MVP award, but he’ll have to hold off the likes of James Harden, LeBron James and others in order to do so. And since neither Kerr or Curry would be in contention for either of their respective award pursuits without the team’s overall success, it only makes sense that several other members of the team have a shot at their own individual awards as well. For instance, both of the anchors of the league’s most dominant defense are rightfully in the discussion for Defensive Player of the Year.
Andrew Bogut is far and away the league-leader in defensive real plus-minus (DRPM), saving the Warriors an NBA-best 5.94 points per 100 defensive possessions while he’s on the court. While Draymond Green isn’t far behind in fifth with a DRPM of 4.34, the difference between Bogut’s league-best DRPM and second-ranked Tim Duncan (4.86) is as large as the gap between Duncan’s rating and that of 10th-ranked Serge Ibaka (3.78). Don’t sleep on Green though, as his ability to defend almost any position against diverse oppositions has been just as – if not more – valuable than Bogut’s deterring presence. Assuming both remain healthy enough to play enough games to qualify, both members of the Warriors’ starting frontcourt should at the very least make one of the All-NBA defensive teams, a distinction awarded to Andre Iguodala just last year. This season, Iguodala has come off the bench, and very well could receive significant consideration for Sixth Man of the Year. He ranks first in plus/minus (+6.1) and second in minutes (26.8) among all bench players, and his net rating of 13.0 ranks second among reserves as well as seventh-best in the entire league, including starters. In any case, if the Warriors take care of business as a team, the individual accolades will follow.
With 31 games remaining, there’s still plenty left to be decided, both for the Warriors and the rest of the teams battling it out for playoff positioning. The race to the finish starts on Friday against the Spurs.
Get ready. Set. Go!