The Miami HEAT are 25-26, No. 7 in the Eastern Conference, with an Offensive Rating of 111.2, Defensive Rating of 111.9 and Net Rating of -0.7, No. 17 in the league. With two road games left until the All-Star break, here’s what we’ve been noting and noticing.
THE HIGH-LOW
In what was otherwise a mostly discouraging loss to Chicago in which the defense couldn’t plug the holes in the dam, there were still two very, very encouraging plays which figure to play a crucial role in the future of the team.
For as exciting as the combination of Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware is, a somewhat unique look in a league where most starting forwards are bigger wings, nobody has claimed that it is anything but a work in progress on the offensive end. Through 193 minutes the HEAT are scoring just 104.6 points per 100 possessions with that pair on the floor. That’s a number that would be an issue over the course of a full season, but the defense – 100.0 Defensive Rating – is buying the HEAT enough time to see the offensive development through.
Thanks to Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson’s ability to play through Adebayo’s perimeter creation, generating threes has not been much of a problem. It’s finding efficient two pointers – Miami is shooting 51.4 percent from two in that configuration – within somewhat cramped spacing, teams generally leaving one of Ware or Adebayo open at the arc, that has deflated the possession-to-possession efficiency. The good news is that since Ware joined the starting lineup on January 21 against Portland, Miami has converted 30 lobs in seven games, their 3.1 lobs per 100 possessions standing third in the league during that stretch and would be well and above the Atlanta Hawks’ 2.2 per 100 mark across the entire season. Six lobs in a single game would be the second-highest total in the league over the past three seasons. Miami has hit that mark three times in the past three weeks, albeit all three games (Bucks, Bulls, Nets) were losses.
Most of those lobs, 20 of the 30, have come from Herro, Robinson and Nikola Jovic, but it’s the two which have come from Adebayo and Ware themselves that are more interesting. Both of those came against the Bulls.
For any lineup playing two bigs, whether it’s below the rim with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph or between lobs threats like Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, that brand of play is where the magic happens. High to low, elbow to rim, catch, turn and pass. Those bang-bang passes aren’t easy reads but you can imagine that this sort of thing is being drilled regularly in practice. If the big defender is on you and you set a screen, then you know the size is behind you. Against a smaller team like Chicago, that means there’s nobody who is going to break up the lob. Just find your guy and deliver it on time and on target.
We know Adebayo, who has been working the short roll for years despite the HEAT not often having short-roll generating creators – Herro’s development this season has helped there, and Robinson is always steady with a pocket pass – but to see Ware, who has 28 assists to his name in his rookie season, return the favor was an eye opener. Sure, maybe that pass is more the result of play design and coaching than it is pure instinct – we haven’t seen enough of Ware used as a playmaker to know either way – but anything becomes instinct if you do it often enough.
Not every team is Chicago, which has allowed lobs at one of the highest rates in the league, but you start somewhere. While the team sorts out the best shot profile in their big-big lineups, if they can keep working these passes then knowing you can grab a few easy ones like this a game, created both by your guards and by the bigs, is a good foundation to build on.
FUNCTIONAL INTENTIONALITY
For three seasons in a row, between 2020-21 and 2022-23, the HEAT were exactly the No. 3 team in the league when it came to Opponent Turnover Percentage, opponents turning the ball over on at least 15 percent of their possessions in each of those years.
Last year that number started to slip a bit, their 14.1 percent mark dropping down to No. 9. Still strong, just not quite league leading. This year, however, the HEAT have dropped down to No. 21 in the rankings. Since December 1 they are No. 25.
Right now, a few days before the All-Star break, this might be the single most important thing happening in the team’s statistical profile. Why? Forcing turnovers are the raison d’être, the entire reason for being, behind Miami’s defense. There aren’t too many words Erik Spoelstra has spoken more often in his years as head coach than “disruptive”. No matter which scheme they’re running, which coverages they’re leaning into, his teams have always prioritized forcing mistakes, cutting off drives and forcing uncomfortable passes. In the final three years of the Dwyane Wade, LeBron James, Chris Bosh era, the team was always at least Top 3 in that category.
The HEAT don’t have to rank highly in opponent turnovers. They’re still No. 9 in Defensive Rating and No. 5 in opponent rim attempt rate, traditionally the other pillar of their defensive philosophy. It’s been some time since Miami has started a frontcourt with the size of Bam Adebayo and Kel’el Ware – that two-man group has an opponent turnover percentage of 11.3 percent – and it’s possible there is some recalibration happening. Still, it’s tough to imagine a Spoelstra defense that doesn’t emphasize turnovers. Everything they do to limit opposing rim attempts, aggressively pinching in on driving lanes being one of the key components, is also meant to help induce turnovers at the same time.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on this as Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson are integrated into the team. All three have the combination of size, length and good hands to contribute to further chaos, in a good way. In a sense, Miami’s defense still ranking highly while their forced turnovers are down gives them a good bit of upside on that end of the floor in the coming months. Boston only committed six turnovers on Monday night, but they have the lowest turnover rate in the league so that matchup isn’t a great barometer.
A NECESSARY TEST
One of the things that makes Boston a valuable test during the regular season is not just that they’re the defending champions, but they’re willing to do things defensively that you won’t see from other teams until a postseason series when they have time to put together a more detailed scouting report. For the Celtics, it’s just how they play.
Watch this possession, for example:
As Adebayo brings the ball up Boston has their two bigs, Kristaps Porzingis and Al Hoford, in the game as well. We start with an off-ball screen in the left corner. Horford immediately switches before contact is made as Boston has long been comfortable with Jayson Tatum on centers. As Boston collapses on Wiggins’ back cut and Tatum recovers out to Ware, we get a full reset up top with 12 seconds remaining. Time for Davion Mitchell to come to the ball.
Now watch that clip again and keep an eye on Derrick White for this section. For both the handoff and the ensuing pick-and-roll White goes underneath Adebayo, something defenses typically do when they’re happy to concede a three off the dribble. Later in the game, in the third quarter, White does this again to Mitchell and Mitchell attempts the three given to him.
Then, back to the original clip, as Mitchell takes the driving lane, both White and Porzingis collapse to the rim. Adebayo is left open and as he receives the ball, Boston doesn’t commit anyone to a closeout. They weren’t all quite as open as Adebayo here, but with Boston generally offering soft closeouts and pulling defenders into the paint off one of Miami’s big men, Adebayo and Ware combined to take nine threes, tied for the most they’ve taken in a single game this season. The other instance of them taking nine threes happened against Milwaukee a couple weeks ago. Similar to the Celtics, the Bucks – another potential postseason opponent – were mostly content to concede catch-and-shoot threes as Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo pulled into the paint.
This is what the HEAT are going to have to contend with moving forward as they continue to develop their new lineup. Even with Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson in the starting backcourt the spacing – both Spoelstra and Adebayo have referred to it as a work in progress more than one recently – has been touch and go.
“Spacing and decision making, those have been two consistent themes over the last handful of weeks,” Spoelstra said after the Boston game. “We’re going to continue to work on it until we get more clarity and confidence on what’s working for us.”
Adding Mitchell, who has improved to a league-average shooter in the past couple seasons, albeit at lower volume, will be an interesting stress test.
One last thing on the Boston front. The Celtics were careful not to allow Adebayo much downhill space whenever he brought the ball up in transition, their big men creating a wall, much in the same way Miami has done with Antetokounmpo in the past, whenever Adebayo presented a threat at pace.
Again, small details that could be relevant come the postseason. Ultimately Miami’s low Offensive Ratings against both the Celtics and Nets, two very different defenses, came down to Miami’s poor shooting from three across the board, but Monday night was a reminder that as they face more dynamic teams, the Where, When and How of those threes becomes all the more detailed.
TIDBITS
-Kel’el Ware’s three lobs in the first quarter against Chicago tied him for the most lobs in a single quarter this season. Miami’s four total lobs in that quarter also tied the league season high for lobs in a quarter.
-Tyler Herro has thrown 35 lobs which led to a shot, No. 7 in the league this season. Since 2013-14, the most lobs any HEAT player has thrown in a season is Goran Dragic with 63 in 2019-20.
-When Herro is on the floor, Miami has an Offensive Rating of 113.1. When he is off the floor, that number falls to 102.6. That split remains one of the largest in the entire league, No. 8 among those with at least 1,400 minutes played.
-The HEAT are the No. 6 Defensive Rebounding team, by percentage, in the league. When Adebayo and Ware have been on the floor together, their number rises to what would be the best mark in the league, 77.3 percent, though since January 21 it has fallen to 69.9 with Adebayo resting.
-The HEAT are 2-8 when shooting 30 percent or worse from three. They are 14-6 when shooting 40 percent or better from three.
-An interesting quote on the defense from Spoelstra following the Boston game: “What I felt like was our resolve and focus lost steam when we started to get disjointed offensively. That happens with teams, that happens with young teams, that happens with inexperienced teams. That’s also a big thing that we’ll overcome. To be able to function defensively even if we’ve had four or five straight possessions where we missed shots or it didn’t go the way that we wanted it to. We’ll work on that, improve it and hopefully not go through those stretches where there’s so many possessions in a row that are not great, but we still have to be able to function on the other end.”
It's been interesting to hear Spoelstra referring to this group as young and inexperienced in recent weeks. It’s entirely on base, of course – there are mistakes that come with youth that every developing team has to live with, to some degree – but it’s been quite some time since Spoelstra has referred to the HEAT as such.