After a year of build up and anticipation, the Warriors and Cavaliers meet in an NBA Finals rematch.
Ask, and you shall receive.
Game 1
Warriors vs. CavsThursday, June 2 @ 6:00 p.m.Oracle ArenaTV: ABCRadio: KNBR 680
The NBA Finals are set, and it’s the matchup most NBA fans (save for those from Toronto and Oklahoma City) have been anticipating for quite some time. On June 16, 2015, the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers in Game 6 of the NBA Finals, giving Golden State a 4-2 series victory and their first title in four decades. Cleveland won two of the first three games of that series, and despite LeBron James’ phenomenal efforts, the Warriors’ depth won out in the end. Of course, the Cavs were without both Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving for the vast majority of that series, and many players, analysts and pundits alike have maintained that the outcome could – or perhaps would – have been different had Cleveland been at full strength. Despite what they may say to the cameras, you can be sure the Warriors have heard every murmur of discredit, every mumbling of doubt over the 12 months since. As Stephen Curry somewhat sarcastically expounded in the preseason prior to the 2015-16 campaign, “I apologize for us being healthy. I apologize for us playing who’s in front of us.” Curry closed that exchange with, “We’ll rectify that situation this year.”
Entering the season, some wondered if there might be a championship hangover of sorts. Well, those comments and criticisms only served to light the team’s fire, and they set out looking to prove all doubters wrong. How much of that had to do with Golden State’s NBA record 24-game win streak to begin the season is anyone’s guess, but by mid-December, it was clear the Dubs meant business.
The Warriors lost their first game of the season on December 12, a 108-95 road defeat to the Milwaukee Bucks on the back end of a back-to-back. Less than two weeks later, they hosted the Cavaliers on Christmas Day in their first encounter since the 2015 Finals. Golden State entered that contest with 27 wins in their first 28 games, and they‘d add one more victory to that total by the time the game was over. Despite being without Harrison Barnes (injury), the Warriors grinded out an 89-83 victory, thanks in large part to holding the Cavs to 31.6 percent shooting from the field. Cleveland had no answer for Shaun Livingston, who came off the bench to score 16 points on 8-of-9 shooting, his second-highest scoring output of the entire season. The Cavaliers would get one more chance at redemption when they hosted the Dubs in Cleveland on January 18, but they weren’t any more pleased with the outcome. Golden State crushed Cleveland 132-98 on that night, building a 30-point lead in the first half in their first visit back to Quicken Loans Arena since hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy last June. Stephen Curry scored 35 points in the first three quarters before sitting out the entirety of the fourth, and only a late flurry helped the Cavs avoid their worst home loss in franchise history.
In the two games that comprised the regular season series between the Warriors and Cavaliers, Golden State had the upper hand in nearly every meaningful statistical category. The 92.3 points per 100 possessions the Cavs scored were the fewest they scored against any opponent this season, and their average of just 3.0 fast break points per game was also by far the worst they fared in the open court against any opposing team. Irving, James and Love combined to shoot 3-of-25 from three-point range in those games, and Love’s 6.5 points per game was his lowest scoring average against any opponent. James, who almost single-handedly carried the Cavs to the finish line last June, compiled a minus-43 over those two games, the second worst plus-minus in a regular season series of his career.
Based on the regular season series, not to mention the final three games of the 2015 Finals, this matchup would appear to be far more one-sided than it actually is. Yes, the Warriors have won five-straight against last year’s runner-up by an average of 16.4 points per game, but the Cavaliers of the 2016 Playoffs are a team far different than the one whose number the Warriors seem to have. David Blatt, who combined with Steve Kerr to form just the second rookie head coach pairing in NBA Finals history last June, was fired and replaced by Tyronn Lue, despite Cleveland sitting atop the Eastern Conference with a 30-11 record at the time of the transition. Since Lue took over, the Cavs have played at a considerably faster pace, placed more of an emphasis on the three-point shot, and averaged 5.9 more points per game during the regular season. Part of the improvement can be attributed to a change in the starting lineup, which saw Tristan Thompson take the place of Timofey Mozgov, and it’s paid off big time, with the new lineup obliterating all they encounter. That starting lineup played a total of just three minutes in the regular season series, but has outscored opponents by 21.4 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs, the best mark among five-man units that have played a minimum of 100 minutes together. The smaller, quicker lineup is more adept at getting up and down the floor, opening up room on the perimeter for their three-point shooting arsenal, which they’ve taken full advantage of. It’s the Cavaliers, not the prolific shooting Warriors, that are taking the highest percentage of shots from three-point range, and it’s also the Cavaliers that lead all playoff teams with a 43.4 field goal percentage from beyond the arc. In fact, their 25 three-pointers in their Game 2 victory over Atlanta in the second round were the most ever made in an NBA game, playoffs or regular season.
So, clearly, Cleveland has developed into a much more potent offensive team than the one the Warriors saw back in January, and there is no arguing with the success they’ve had since the postseason began. Considering how dominant they’ve been, you’d expect them to stick to their same game plan going into the Finals, and the Warriors will have to adjust if they hope to maintain their recent superiority. Still, while the Cavs have every right to feel confident, particularly on the offensive end, this isn’t your standard run-of-the-mill squad they’ll be going up against. These are the defending champion Warriors, who broke what was thought to be an untouchable team record, going 73-9 in the regular season. These are the defending champion Warriors, who are led by the two-time defending and first unanimous MVP in the history of the league. These are the defending champion Warriors, who just became the 10th team in NBA history to rally back from a 3-1 deficit to win a playoff series.
None of that should, or will, come as a surprise to Cleveland, and thus, it’s quite possible they could curtail their strategy slightly. After all, Golden State boasts the two most prolific shooters in the game today, and possibly ever, and perhaps challenging them to a three-point contest does not give them the best chances at success. Additionally, the Warriors were the second-best team in the entire NBA at defending the three-point line in the regular season, holding their opponents to just 33.2 percent shooting from behind the arc, and they just completed a seven-game series in which they held Oklahoma City to 55-of-171 (.322) shooting from three-point land. A logical Cleveland counter to this fact would be for the Cavaliers to drive more often; the Cavaliers have averaged just 23.1 drives per game in the playoffs, the fewest of any postseason team. That number would be substantially lower if not for LeBron James, who is as talented on the drive as any player in the history of the sport. James leads the playoffs with 9.4 shots in the restricted area and 14.3 points in the paint per game, and just shot 82.1 percent (46-of-56) in the restricted area in the Eastern Conference Finals.
You can’t stop LeBron James – you can only hope to contain him. That’s not just an overused expression; it’s the truth, and the Warriors know it as well as anyone. Lucky for Golden State, they have quite possibly the best LeBron container in the entire Association in Andre Iguodala, whose superb defense against James in the Finals had very much to do with him being named Finals MVP. Golden State was a plus-62 in 222 minutes with Iguodala on the floor in that series, and a minus-19 in 76 minutes with him on the bench. James, as great as he was, managed to shoot just 38.1 percent from the field when Iguodala was on the court, often times being matched up one-on-one. Kevin Durant is one of the few other players in the league that is also in the ‘hope-to-contain’ category, and Iguodala’s relentless defense against Durant played a crucial role in the Warriors’ comeback in that just completed series. Iguodala started the second half of Game 6 and the beginning of Game 7 against the Thunder in order to better align him with Durant’s minutes, and it’s quite possible you could see the Warriors employ the same strategy to match up with James. Iguodala entered the starting lineup in Game 4 of the Finals last June, and it was no coincidence that coincided with Golden State’s resurgence in the series. The ‘Death Lineup’ - as it has been termed - of Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, Barnes and Green started those final three games, and outscored the Cavaliers 154-126 in 70 minutes while holding Cleveland to just 88.0 points per 100 possessions. That Death Lineup – which uncharacteristically struggled mightily in games 3 and 4 against Oklahoma City – got back on track in games 6 and 7, and has outscored opponents by the equivalent of 141-109 per 48 minutes in the regular season and playoffs combined. There’s no doubt Cleveland has studied the tape with the hopes of staving off Death once more, but if that lineup can have a similar effectiveness, they could live up to the moniker yet again.
It’s a series that offers a little bit of everything that makes the postseason so compelling. Pride, redemption, and legacies are all at stake, and it promises to live up to the hype that has built up over the past calendar year. There’s plenty of superstar power on both sides, with contrary but equivalent motivating factors driving each team. Will the Warriors complete the final step of what would go down as the most successful season in the history of the sport, or will the Cavaliers spoil Golden State’s hopes for the history books and bring Cleveland their first championship title in franchise history? Sometime in the next two to three weeks, we’ll have an answer. In the meantime, this much is for sure:
This is what we’ve all been waiting for.