2021 NBA Draft LotteryTuesday, June 225:30 p.m.
WATCH: ESPN
It’s that time of year once again when the fates of the Warriors and all NBA teams are no longer determined by basketballs, but ping pong balls instead as the Draft Lottery is right around the corner. The annual event will determine exactly which pick(s) the Dubs will have in the 2021 NBA Draft.
Compared with last year when the Warriors knew they would get a top-five pick in the NBA Draft Lottery, this year’s event is a little convoluted, as the Dubs will leave the event with one, and maybe two, lottery picks. We’ll break it down so you know what all the odds and possibilities are.
How the Lottery Works
The 14 teams that do not make the playoffs are entered into the lottery where they will be in contention for the top four picks of the 2021 NBA Draft. The draft order of the top four will be determined by the drawing of 14 numbered ping pong balls. After a thorough mixing, four balls will be pulled and whichever team holds that combination of numbers is given the first overall pick. The process is then repeated for the second, third and fourth picks.
There are 1,001 combinations in this drawing process. How this plays out it completely up to chance.
After the top four picks of the NBA Draft are chosen, the remaining 10 teams will be seeded five through 14 in the inverse order of their 2020-21 regular season records, or in other words the teams with the worst records will be given the most favorable picks.
This all matters because one of the Warriors’ potential picks this year could change ownership depending on how the ping pong balls fall on Tuesday.
The Warriors’ Picks in 2021
The Warriors have two first-round picks this year and none in the second round. Both of the picks are in the NBA’s Draft Lottery — their own with the 14th worst record in the league, and that of the Minnesota Timberwolves, who finished with the sixth worst record — and have a chance of becoming a top-four pick.
However, ownership of the Timberwolves’ pick is up in the air, and will remain undetermined until the Draft Lottery plays out.
Minnesota’s selection was dealt to the Warriors as part of the trade that brought Andrew Wiggins to the Bay Area. The pick is top-three protected, which means that, should the fate of ping pong balls place it in the top-three of the Draft, the Timberwolves will retain this summer’s pick and the Dubs receive Minnesota’s 2022 first round pick instead. If it falls to fourth or lower, the Warriors receive the selection this year.
So where could that pick end up exactly? Here’s the breakdown:
Warriors’ First First-Round Pick
Top-three and retained by Minnesota: 27.6 percent
4th overall: 9.6 percent
5th overall: 0 percent
6th overall: 8.6 percent
7th overall: 29.7 percent
8th overall: 20.6 percent
9th overall: 3.7 percent
10th overall: 0.2 percent
The odds are in favor of the Warriors retaining the pick with it most likely becoming the seventh or eighth overall pick. Though this is what the math suggests, the ping pong balls may say otherwise.
For those feeling highly optimistic, it is worth noting that even the Dubs’ 14th pre-lottery position has the possibility of moving into the top-four.
Warriors’ Second First-Round Pick
1st overall pick: 0.5 percent
2nd overall pick: 0.6 percent
3rd overall pick: 0.6 percent
4th overall pick: 0.7 percent
14th overall pick: 97.6 percent
While this is unlikely, it never hurts to grab a lucky charm on Draft Lottery Day and try to bring some extra luck to the Warriors.
2021 NBA DraftThursday, July 295:30 p.m.
WATCH: ESPN
Regardless of the Draft Lottery results, there will be decisions abound for President of Basketball Operations and General Manager Bob Myers as the team prepares for the 2021 NBA Draft, which will be held on July 29. But there is much to be done before that, including determining exactly where the Dubs fall in the draft order. All we know for certain before heading into the lottery is this: the Warriors are only guaranteed a top-14 pick, and may receive a second first-round selection.