It’s been 13 years since New Orleans clinched a playoff berth prior to the 81st game of an NBA regular season, a “streak” that’s already guaranteed to continue this spring. As was the case in 2015, 2018 and 2022 – the last three times the Pelicans advanced to the playoffs – the 2023-24 squad’s fate is coming down to the wire. Mathematically, New Orleans (46-32) cannot wrap up a top-six seed and the automatic playoff spot that comes with it any earlier than Friday’s game at Golden State. It also most likely won’t know the details of a postseason destination or matchup until the final buzzer of Sunday’s Game 82 vs. the Lakers in the Smoothie King Center. With only four games remaining, the Pelicans can still technically finish anywhere in the West from fourth place to 10th, but realistically that window has narrowed to between sixth and ninth. Let’s take a look at the most feasible possibilities:
Race for sixth
Phoenix (46-32) and New Orleans are the top contenders for the West’s final automatic playoff berth, sharing identical records, but the sixth-place Suns hold a slight upper hand due to clinching the tiebreaker (concluded 2-1 season series). However, Phoenix has a more difficult remaining schedule, finishing exclusively against postseason qualifiers (vs. Clippers, at Clippers, at Sacramento, at Minnesota). The Pelicans also have a game remaining at Sacramento, along with contests at Portland, at Golden State and vs. the Lakers. By the way, fifth-place Dallas (48-30) is two games ahead of New Orleans, but that’s essentially a three-loss edge based on the Mavericks’ tiebreaker clinch (better Southwest Division record), making that nearly insurmountable for the Pelicans. Dallas also has a pair of very winnable games on paper remaining at Charlotte and vs. Detroit.
Suns magic number on Pelicans: 4
If Phoenix wins its final four games, New Orleans cannot catch the Suns in the standings, but any loss opens the door for the Pelicans.
Race for seventh
This is by far the best landing spot for any play-in tournament participant, because it means two chances to win one game, both at home. Every No. 7-seeded club from the previous three years of the current play-in tournament format has advanced to the playoffs, with 2023 Miami coming the closest to being knocked out (the Heat ended up reaching the NBA Finals after eking past Chicago in the East’s win-or-go-home play-in matchup). New Orleans will enter Tuesday’s game in Portland holding a one-game lead over eighth-place Sacramento (45-33, visits Oklahoma City on Tuesday), but the Pelicans also have clinched the tiebreaker over the Kings (4-0 season series, one meeting remaining).
Pelicans magic number on Kings: 3
If New Orleans goes 3-1 in its final four games, it will finish 49-33. Sacramento’s best possible record is 49-33 (the Kings would lose a tiebreaker to the Pelicans). If New Orleans beats Sacramento on Thursday, it only needs to win any of its other three games to guarantee placing ahead of Sacramento.
Race for eighth
The No. 8 seed opens the play-in tournament with a road game at the No. 7 seed. A win in the 7 vs. 8 game yields a playoff berth, while a loss means hosting the winner of the 9-10 game in an elimination game. Three of the six teams seeded eighth at the end of the regular season have advanced to the playoffs since 2021 (the Clippers were in that position in 2022, for example, but were bounced by the Pelicans from the play-in tourney). New Orleans will be 1.5 games ahead of the ninth-place Lakers (45-34) entering Tuesday’s games, with the Lakers hosting Golden State.
Pelicans magic number on Lakers: 3
Any combination of Pelicans wins and Lakers losses adding up to three ensures that the Crescent City lands above the Lake Show in the final West standings. But even if New Orleans goes 0-3 and the Lakers go 2-0 between now and Game 82, the Pelicans (46-35 in that scenario) would still overtake the Lakers (47-34 in that scenario) by beating LA in the Blender on Sunday afternoon. A New Orleans win would deadlock the season series at 2-2, causing the next tiebreaker to be conference record, which would then favor the Pelicans. Of course, NOLA would much prefer to be two-plus games ahead of the purple and gold entering Sunday.
Race for ninth
This is where New Orleans has entered the previous two postseasons. It’s also where the Pelicans do not want to be again this time, after being abruptly eliminated in 2023 by Oklahoma City in the 9-10 play-in matchup. Three of the six teams seeded ninth at the end of the regular season have advanced to the playoffs since 2021, the same rate as the six teams seeded eighth (see above). Still, starting the play-in bracket in ninth means needing to go 2-0 to advance to the playoffs, with a reward of facing the No. 1 seed in a best-of-seven (Minnesota, Denver and Oklahoma City are all current candidates in 2024). New Orleans is three games ahead of 10th-place Golden State (43-35) with four games remaining for both teams, including Friday’s head-to-head meeting in Chase Center.
Pelicans magic number on Warriors: 2
New Orleans can guarantee placing ahead of Golden State in the standings even before it heads to San Francisco on Friday, if the Pelicans defeat Portland and Sacramento on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. If the Pels don’t sweep that pair of Pacific time zone games, Golden State still might have a chance, especially if the Warriors can win Tuesday on the Lakers’ home floor. Golden State’s two other remaining games are vs. out-of-contention Portland (Thursday) and Utah (Sunday).