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Analyzing the first two games of the NBA Finals with the help of MOCAP Analytics.

Having prevailed in the first two games of the NBA Finals, the Warriors now own the longest postseason winning streak in NBA history. They have yet to lose a game (14-0 in the playoffs) and are now two wins away from a second championship in three years. Of their 14 postseason victories, 12 have come by double-digits; that's tied for the most double-digit wins in a single postseason in NBA history.

Both of Golden State's wins over the Cleveland Cavaliers in Games 1 and 2 of the 2017 NBA Finals have been of the double-digit variety. The Warriors have led for 86 of the 96 minutes played in the series, the most time spent in the lead in the first two games of the Finals since the 2007 San Antonio Spurs, who went on to sweep – ironically – the Cavaliers in four games.

Golden State is averaging 122.5 points per game so far in the series, and their 132 points in Game 2 were the most points scored in a Finals game since the Los Angeles Lakers notched 141 against the Celtics in 1987. But while the Warriors have been supremely effective offensively, it's quite possible their team defense has been the real story thus far.

The Warriors have limited Cleveland to just 97.4 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would have ranked more than three full points worse than the least efficient offensive team in the regular season (Philadelphia, 100.7). For comparison's sake, the Cavaliers averaged 120.7 points per 100 possessions against their three Eastern Conference opponents on their way to these Finals. Including Games 1 and 2, Golden State has allowed only 98.8 points per 100 possessions in the 2017 playoffs, 9.2 fewer points allowed than the league average over the course of the postseason. According to ESPN Stats &amp; Information, that is easily the largest such gap ever among teams that have made the Finals under the current playoff format (since 1983-84).

With those staggering numbers in mind, let's take a closer look at how and why Games 1 and 2 played out the way they did.

Turnover differential played a huge role in Game 1. Neither team shot the ball very well, but the Cavaliers committed 20 turnovers (a playoff-high), while the Warriors turned it over just four times, tying an NBA Finals record. That was the largest turnover differential in an NBA Finals game since turnovers were first recorded in 1970-71, and as a result, Golden State attempted 20 more shots than the Cavs (106 to 86).

The Warriors' 42.5 percent shooting from the field was their worst performance of the postseason, but by getting 20 more attempts than the opposition, they were able to overcome their poor shot making. Many of those additional shot attempts were long drives to the basket from the backcourt or transition threes, as the Dubs capitalized on Cleveland's defensive shortcomings in the midst of transition chaos. Golden State outscored the Cavs 30-9 in sprint offense in Game 1.

Kevin Durant, in particular, was the beneficiary of several sprint buckets, taking full advantage of the additional spacing in transition to lead the way in scoring for Golden State.

While the Cavaliers were on the wrong side of a massive turnover differential in Game 1, the shoe was on the other foot in Game 2. Golden State totaled 20 turnovers in Game 2 compared to just nine for Cleveland, including eight miscues in the first quarter alone. The Warriors' lackluster ball control permitted the Cavaliers to take five more shots than the Dubs in the first half and keep it a close game going into halftime, trailing by just three points. In the second half, however, Golden State broke the game open to earn a 132-113 victory. It was the Warriors' second 130-point and fourth 125-point game of the postseason, as they once again parlayed great shot taking with great shot making.

Golden State averaged 1.35 points per shooting play in the victory, resulting in a final outcome of 16 more points than would be expected if they were to take those same shots again. The Warriors outperformed at every level of their offense, making more two-pointers, three-pointers and free throws than expected.

Golden State knocked down 18 three-pointers in the victory, which broke their own team record for the most treys in a Finals game. The Warriors' proficiency from the three-point line resulted in an effective field goal percentage of 61.8 percent, their fourth-best shooting performance of the playoffs.

Two-thirds of the Warriors' Game 2 three-pointers came from their sharp-shooting trio of Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, who splashed in four treys apiece. They all capitalized on great shooting looks; Curry led the way with 1.34 expected points per shooting play, and it didn't hurt that he converted all 14 of his attempts from the free throw line.

After struggling to find a shooting groove throughout much of the postseason, Thompson bounced back in a big way in Game 2, scoring 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting from the field. After posting a minus-nine shot-making performance in Game 1, his six more points than expected in Game 2 ranked second among all shot-makers on the team. The plus-15 turnaround from Game 1 to Game 2 marked the largest positive swing for any Warriors player this postseason.

While Thompson's offense reappeared in Game 2, his stellar defense has been a constant throughout the postseason, and in particular through the first two games of the Finals. He has done a tremendous job against Kyrie Irving, limiting the Cavs' All-Star guard to just 11 points on 4-of-13 shooting while forcing three turnovers in the 69 half court possessions that have ended with Thompson as Irving's primary defender.

With Thompson doing a great job clamping down on Irving, it has placed an added onus on LeBron James to provide needed scoring, and James has not disappointed. James has been a constant downhill threat, and looked to attack the rim at every opportunity in Game 2 (see long, orange streaks), in which Cleveland outscored Golden State 60-40 in points in the paint.

James is averaging a triple-double through the first two games of the series, and in typical fashion he's also been great as a playmaker and rebounder.

Coming into the series, it was readily apparent that neither side lacked for star power, and the individual matchup of two of the top players in the world in James and Durant has proven to be one of the treats of the series thus far. The old basketball adage that great offense beats great defense has often proven to be true within that matchup, as James has shot well (5-of-7 FG) when guarded by Durant, although Durant has forced him into six turnovers in 64 half court possessions. On the other end of the floor, Durant is 10-of-17 from the field for 23 points and only one turnover in 74 half court possessions when guarded by James.

Through the first two games of the Finals, the Warriors have had advantages all across the board. The individual matchups between the star players have worked in their favor, they've been more productive and more efficient from three-point range, and Golden State has done a better job capitalizing on fast break opportunities, despite similar turnover totals. Those will be three areas to keep an eye on as the series transitions to Cleveland for Games 3 and 4, where the Cavaliers' season could be on the line.

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Dubs Deep Dives

Previewing the NBA Finals matchup of the Warriors and Cavaliers with the help of MOCAP Analytics.

Welcome to the NBA Finals, where history is about to transpire in front of our very eyes.

As the league’s two most recent champions, the Warriors and Cavaliers have been responsible for their fair share of record-breaking performances over the last two-plus years. But never before have the same two teams met in the NBA Finals in three consecutive seasons. Well, until now.

Golden State and Cleveland enter the Finals flying high. The Warriors just became the first team in NBA history with 12-straight wins to begin a postseason, while the Cavaliers suffered just one defeat on their way through the Eastern Conference. The single loss between the two teams sets a league record for the fewest combined losses entering the Finals since the NBA went to the current 16-team format in 1984, and their combined postseason scoring margin of plus-14.9 points per game is by far the largest such margin entering the Finals in NBA history, eclipsing the plus-11.0 mark of the Minneapolis Lakers and Syracuse Nationals in 1950.

Given their record-breaking margins of victory, it’s safe to say both teams have dominated on both sides of the ball up to this point in the playoffs. However, when taking a closer look at the data, it’s clear the Warriors and Cavs’ offenses in particular have been on an entirely different level from the rest of the league.

Both teams have displayed great shot taking, with the Warriors averaging 1.17 expected points per shot attempt, just slightly more than Cleveland’s average of 1.14. Meanwhile, they’ve both limited their opponents to average shot taking of 1.07 expected points per shooting play. While Golden State has had the advantage in shot taking, it’s the Cavs who have been most efficient with their shot making. Cleveland has generated 1.27 points per shooting play, a great mark that is just slightly ahead of the Warriors’ 1.23 points per shooting play.

As you can see from the graphics above, both teams have outperformed on offense, and in Cleveland’s case, particularly so from three-point range. The Cavaliers have taken the most three-pointers of any playoff team (14.6 per game), and with a shooting percentage of 43.5 percent, have knocked down those treys at the highest clip of any team in the postseason. In fact, they have nine different players averaging at least one three-point attempt per game in the playoffs, and of those, Kyrie Irving is the only one shooting below 40 percent from three-point range.

For Golden State, the lineup of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green has been particularly lethal. That fivesome has created outstanding shots throughout the playoffs, and produced an expected value of 1.27 points per shooting play. Defensively, they’ve limited the opposition to 1.13 expected points per shooting play, and their net rating of plus-21.1 points per 100 possessions is the second-best of any five-man lineup on Golden State that has played at least 30 minutes together. This five-man unit is effective for a multitude of reasons, but particularly because of its interchangeability on defense. All five players are able to switch almost any defensive matchup, allowing them to cut off drives to the basket while also remaining connected to shooters on the perimeter. The Curry-Thompson-Iguodala-Durant-Green lineup has restricted the opposition to 33.3 percent shooting from three-point range so far in the playoffs, and the degree to which they’re able to limit the Cavs’ long range attack in the Finals could have a profound impact on the series.

Position-by-position, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more star-studded series than the one about to take place. The two teams feature a combined 11 players who have been named All-Stars (including seven this year), the most in a Finals series since the 1983 matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Philadelphia 76ers. At small forward, there’s LeBron James and Kevin Durant. At power forward, Draymond Green and Kevin Love. And at point guard, a battle of two of the craftiest floor generals in the game today between Stephen Curry and Kyrie Irving. Both point guards are currently in the midst of one of the best stretches of their respective careers, and each played a vital role in helping their teams reach this stage.

Curry averaged 31.5 points per game in Golden State’s four game sweep of the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference Finals, scoring seven more points than expected per game (best on Golden State). Irving, on the other hand, averaged six more points than expected per game in the Eastern Conference Finals for an average of 25.8 points per contest. They’re both electric scorers, but in different ways. Curry is a formidable weapon whether he’s on or off the ball, whereas Irving is dominant with the ball in his hands.

Curry is in constant motion on offense, and he’s particularly efficient as a playmaker coming off screens near the three-point wings. Following Curry’s off-screen catches on the right wing, the Warriors averaged a lofty 1.21 points per play this season. To put that in perspective, a team averaging 1.21 points per play would lead the league in offensive efficiency.

Irving, in his own right, is a wizard in the pick-and-roll. He’s extraordinarily quick and uses his speed to turn the corner and attack the paint for a layup, or to draw the defense and kick it out to Cleveland’s arsenal of perimeter shooters. Irving is capable of driving into the paint in either direction, but tends to drive right more than 60 percent of the time and creates nearly two more points per game on paint drives to that side than he does to his left.

The strengths of each point guard are exhibited in their shot track graphics from their respective playoff scoring-high games.

Curry’s versatility was on full display in Golden State’s Game 1 victory over San Antonio, in which he notched his first career 40-point postseason home game. While he attempted a playoff-high 16 three-pointers, he was effective in scoring at all three levels, converting shots from downtown, midrange and in the paint. His shot track from that game displays his ability to move without the ball (long, white streaks) and his effectiveness in creating off the dribble (long, orange streaks). Notice the high volume of three-point makes from the right wing.

Irving’s shot track from his 42-point performance in Cleveland’s pivotal Game 4 victory over the Celtics demonstrates his aggressiveness with the ball in his hands (long, orange streaks towards the rim). He was in attack mode and played downhill all night, scoring effectively and efficiently as the ball handler out of the pick-and-roll. He poured in points in a hurry, scoring 19 points in less than five minutes during the third quarter of that game.

Simply put, we’ve never seen anything like what’s about to take place. Two historically great teams are going to battle it out for a third consecutive year for the league’s ultimate prize. Cleveland has suffered just a single postseason defeat, and by the time Game 1 of the Finals tips off on Thursday, Golden State will have lost just one game over the previous 82 days. Talk about a heavyweight matchup.

From a team standpoint, both defenses will certainly be put to the test, and the side that is best able to limit the oppositions’ scoring efficiency – particularly from three-point range – may provide their team with the decisive advantage in the series. Then again, in a series littered with this many phenomenal individual talents, it may very well boil down to which star players are able to make the winning plays in crunch time.

The two sides have been building to this point since last July. Now – finally – we get to see how it all plays out.

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Analyzing the first two games of the Western Conference Finals with the help of MOCAP Analytics.

For the third consecutive time this postseason, the Warriors have won the first two games of a playoff series. They have yet to lose a game and are just the fifth team in NBA history to start the postseason 10-0, and now head to San Antonio for Games 3 and 4 of the Western Conference Finals looking to put the Spurs on the brink of elimination.

Fast starts were a theme in Games 1 and 2. San Antonio jumped out to a huge lead in Game 1, building a 25-point advantage before Golden State’s epic comeback in the second half. In Game 2, the Warriors surged out of the gates and never let San Antonio climb back in it.

The Spurs looked like an entirely different team without Kawhi Leonard in Game 2. San Antonio generated their fewest expected points per shooting play (1.01) this postseason and scored fewer points than expected (0.92) on those shots. On the other end of the floor, the Spurs struggled to limit the Warriors’ offense, allowing 1.19 expected points per shooting play. The Warriors combined their great shot taking with great shot making, scoring a whopping 1.42 points per shooting play on their way to a 136-100 win.

And speaking of great shooting, look no further than Stephen Curry. He’s led Golden State in scoring in each of their wins, and has done so with remarkable efficiency. In Game 2, he led all scorers with 29 points in just over 30 minutes of game action, pouring in six of his nine three-point attempts in the contest. That came on the heels of his Game 1 performance, in which he posted 40 points and seven three-pointers in just under 40 minutes of play.

It only took 13 shot attempts for Curry to put up 29 points in Game 2. His tremendous shot making was on full display, scoring nine more points than expected, tops for any Warrior this postseason.

Not far behind Curry, though, was Patrick McCaw’s seven more points than expected. The second round rookie – who had totaled less than 10 minutes since the end of the first round – got his first extended action in the series to help fill the void created by Andre Iguodala’s absence due to injury, and McCaw came through in the clutch. His 18 points led all bench scorers in the game, making him the first Warriors rookie with at least 18 points off the bench in a playoff game since Robert Parish in 1977, and the first rookie in the NBA with 18-or-more points off the bench in a playoff game since James Harden in 2010. As you can see from his shot track below, McCaw was extremely efficient on offense, converting on multiple drives and taking advantage of extra space on the perimeter.

The Spurs didn’t have many bright spots in Game 2, but one of them was the play of Jonathan Simmons, who, like McCaw, took on a bigger role as a result of a teammate’s injury. Simmons started in place of Kawhi Leonard, and much like Leonard did in Game 1, Simmons gave the Warriors’ defense fits in Game 2. He scored eight of San Antonio’s first 10 points in the game, and was the Spurs’ lone starter to reach double-digits in scoring that night. Simmons excels as a driver, and attacked the paint with success time and time again in Game 2.

Leonard has been ruled out for Game 3, which likely puts Simmons in the spotlight once more. With Tony Parker and Leonard out, Simmons becomes perhaps the Spurs’ best perimeter attacker, and his aggressiveness could have a major impact on the rest of this series.

One of the league’s premiere post-scorers, LaMarcus Aldridge has been the barometer for San Antonio. When he’s played well offensively, so too have the Spurs. When he’s struggled, though, San Antonio’s offense has bogged down. In Game 1, Aldridge got off to a great start, totaling 17 points in the first half, often from his favorite spot on the floor.

But in the second half, with Leonard out due to an ankle injury, the Warriors mixed up their coverages on Aldridge, sending help on several occasions and forcing multiple turnovers.

Golden State continued to time their double teams on Aldridge in Game 2 and had similar success. They limited Aldridge to four made field goals, only one more than his number of turnovers.

It has been a team effort for the Warriors as they’ve mixed up coverages and matchups against Aldridge through the first two games. Draymond Green, David West, Zaza Pachulia and Kevin Durant have all spent time defending Aldridge in the half court. Green has seen the most action and has been up for the challenge, allowing only six points to Aldridge on 47 half court possessions as his primary defender.

With a win in Game 3, the Warriors would set a franchise record with a five-game road playoff winning streak. In order to prevent that from happening, San Antonio will likely need to force Golden State into tougher shots, while improving their own shot selection. Curry’s tremendous shot making, Leonard’s possible return, and Golden State’s coverages on Aldridge are things to keep an eye on as the scene shifts to San Antonio.

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Previewing the Western Conference Finals between the Warriors and Spurs with the help of MOCAP Analytics.

The Warriors have made it to the Western Conference Finals without losing a game this postseason, but now encounter their toughest opponent yet – the San Antonio Spurs.

One could argue the Spurs have been the Warriors' toughest regular season opponent over the last three years, winning five times, while no other team has beaten Golden State more than three times during that span. They were one of only two teams in the NBA to earn multiple wins against the Dubs this season, and were the only team to win the regular season series.

San Antonio thoroughly outplayed Golden State in their two regular season victories. In the season opener back on October 25th, the Spurs dealt the Warriors their worst loss of the year, 129-100. Then in their March 11th matchup—a battle of the benches—San Antonio beat Golden State by 22 points. Playing their fifth game in seven nights and already without Kevin Durant due to injury, Golden State sat Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala for that game, while San Antonio was without Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker and Dejounte Murray.

18 days later, with both teams at near full strength, they met for the third and final time in the regular season. It started out poorly for Golden State, falling behind by 22 points in the first quarter before their star-studded backcourt helped lead a furious comeback to claim the victory.

Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 52 points on 50.0 percent shooting from the field and knocked down four three-pointers apiece in the win. The Splash Brothers created great looks, each averaging 1.19 expected points per shooting play. David West, a mid-range specialist, was right behind them at 1.18 points per shooting play.

Speaking of the mid-range game, few teams rely on it as much as the Spurs. They have a couple of highly efficient mid-range bigs on their roster in LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol, who often score on pick-and-pop plays and post isos.

Aldridge can be particularly lethal in the mid-range, as he was in the Spurs' deciding Game 6 win over the Rockets.

As shown in the graphics above, Aldridge was extremely effective from the left mid-post in Game 6, one of his favorite spots on the floor. During the regular season, San Antonio averaged 1.12 points per play following Aldridge's touches in the left-mid post area. Look for Aldridge to work for position in that area of the floor, while Golden State may try to force him out of his comfort zone.

The Spurs got dominated in Game 1 against the Rockets, and responded by inserting Gasol into the starting lineup. The Aldridge-Gasol frontcourt then led the Spurs to wins in four of their next five games to advance. That wasn't the only major change to the starting lineup, however. Tony Parker went down with a ruptured left quadriceps tendon in Game 2, forcing him out for the remainder of the playoffs. Patty Mills has stepped into his place, and while he's a different kind of player than Parker, Mills has been effective in the four full games since.

Mills is more of a shooter than Parker, and sure enough, a high percentage of Mills' shot attempts are long twos and three-point attempts.

"He can shoot from range," said Mike Brown of Mills following Warriors' practice on Friday. "The biggest thing that he does...he moves so well without the ball, so you can never relax on him. If he has the ball in his hands, you have to make sure you stay connected, because if you don't he's knocking down a three. If he gives the ball up, if you take a breath...next thing you know he's taking off, he's relocating behind the three-point line, and it's another made three."

Below is Mills' shot track from the Spurs' Game 5 overtime win against the Rockets, which shows him relocating around the three-point line to create catch-and-shoot opportunities (long white streaks), as well as his ability to create threes off the bounce (long orange streaks).

While the Spurs have played far more often with Parker as their starting point guard, one could argue Mills has actually been more effective in a starting role.

Although the total plus-minus is higher for the lineup with Parker (due to more minutes on the floor), the lineup with Mills actually created better shots (1.14 expected points per shooting play compared to 1.07 with Parker). The lineup with Mills also played with more pace, attempting shots earlier in the shot clock. To minimize Mills' effectiveness, Golden State needs to stay attached to him on the perimeter and not give him too much space to get his shot off.

Between the Warriors and Spurs, this upcoming Western Conference Finals series pits the league's top offense and defense against one another in a postseason series for the fourth time in the last 30 years. In the three previous matchups, the series winner went on to win the NBA Championship. Will it be four-for-four? Time will tell, but the team that best exploits the oppositions' weaknesses—as few as there are—may have the best chance to repeat history.

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Analyzing the first two games of the Warriors-Jazz second round series with the help of MOCAP Analytics.

After the first two games of the series, the Warriors are sitting in good position. They hold a 2-0 advantage having successfully defended home court, and have yet to trail at any points in the series. Part of that is due to Golden State’s ability to get off to good starts, but more so, it’s a reflection of the pick-your-poison quandary that they’ve posed to the Jazz.

Despite going up against one of the top defensive teams in the league, the Warriors have still executed well on the offensive end through the first two games of the series. They’ve put themselves in great shot taking positions, averaging 1.18 expected points per shot attempt. Those shots have resulted in 1.19 points per attempt, meaning they’ve only been average shot makers thus far. Given that Utah’s shot making has been better than expected, one could make the case that the average margin of victory for Golden State in the first two games could have been larger than it was.

In Game 1, GSW was exceptional in the open court. Their disciplined approach to the transition game allowed them to gash Utah down the middle as the Jazz tried to take away the transition three-pointer. Golden State consistently got out on the run and beat Utah’s big men down the floor, getting into the lane for easy buckets. Having big men like Draymond Green and Kevin Durant that can handle the ball in the open court, as well as sharpshooters like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson out on the perimeter allows the Warriors to spread the floor and create even more spacing for open looks.

This is where the pick-your-poison dilemma comes into play. When running back on defense in transition, the Jazz have a couple options. They can collapse back into the paint, but that inevitably leaves a sprinting Warrior wide open for an uncontested three-point shot opportunity.

Or, Utah can take away that three-pointer by staying attached to perimeter players in transition. However, that stretches the defense and allows lanes to the basket, which the Dubs took full advantage of on multiple occasions.

In Game 2, the Jazz adjusted by eliminating the possibility of that pick-your-poison scenario in the first place. Despite committing one more turnover than they did in Game 1, the Jazz limited Golden State to 10 fewer fast break points, partly due to the fact that they consistently fouled the Warriors in the backcourt to prevent them from getting out on the fast break following a turnover. Inherently, they accrued more team fouls as a result, but the strategy proved effective in curtailing Golden State’s transition offense by taking away some of those high-probability attempts when the defense wasn’t set.

Whether on the fast break or in half court sets, however, Golden State’s big guns have still been getting good looks. Durant, Curry and Green have all displayed good to great shot taking thus far in the series based on expected points per shooting play, which includes getting to the free throw line.

When those three have been on the floor with Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala, the lineup’s expected points per shot attempt jumped up another notch. On the other side of the coin, Utah’s Game 2 starting lineup of Shelvin Mack, Rodney Hood, Gordon Hayward, Joe Johnson and Rudy Gobert struggled to keep the Warriors in check on the defensive end, allowing 1.37 points per shot attempt.

That was Utah’s lineup when they pulled within seven points early in the third quarter of Game 2. Iguodala subbed in for Golden State at that juncture to join the Warriors’ four All-Stars on the floor, and the Dubs promptly ripped off eight-straight points to rebuild their cushion. “I went to it early in the third because I felt we needed some juice,” Mike Brown said following the game of the decision to go with that lineup at that point. “Whether we’re making buckets or not, that group is going to bring us juice because they’re going to push the ball with their quickness. And everybody can make plays in that group.” The ‘juice’ lineup has been a mismatch thus far, and you can fully expect Brown to go to it at critical junctures throughout the remainder of the series.

An additional glance at those graphics above reveals that on average, the Jazz have been using 2.2 more seconds per offensive possession compared to the Warriors so far in the series. Playing at a slower pace is nothing new to Utah, but it inevitably means taking more shots in late shot clock situations, which they did not have a lot of success with in Game 2.

Ramping up the pace is unlikely to result in an advantage for the Jazz, so if they’re going to continue to use more clock, they’ll likely need to convert those late clock situations at a higher rate if they hope to regain a foothold in the series.

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Previewing the Western Conference Semifinal between the Warriors and Jazz with the help of MOCAP Analytics.

It took awhile to find out who the Warriors would play in the Western Conference Semifinals after sweeping the Trail Blazers in the first round, but after the Utah Jazz ultimately dispatched the Clippers in seven games, the second round matchup is finally set. While the series ahead pits two of the stingiest defensive teams in the entire Association, the Warriors (second in defensive rating) and Jazz (third in defensive rating) couldn’t be more different on offense—more to come on this.

Looking back, the Warriors took two of three regular season contests between the division winners. The first and third games were littered with injury; Utah was missing four starters in the first game (which the Warriors won 106-99), and Golden State rested multiple starters in the final matchup (which Utah won 105-99) having already locked up the top overall seed going into the playoffs. Utah has dealt with more than their fair share of injuries all season long – Derrick Favors missed all three games between the two teams, while Alec Burks, Rodney Hood, George Hill and Gordon Hayward each only appeared in one – but, they’re healthy coming into this series (Favors is questionable for Game 1).

As such, the second regular season matchup between the Warriors and Jazz on December 20th in which both teams were relatively close to full strength offers perhaps the most realistic data from which to draw from. Unfortunately for the Jazz, however, Golden State dealt Utah their worst loss of the season that night – a 104-74 blowout that was a rout by halftime.

In that second regular season encounter, Utah’s poor shot taking and even worse shot making led to their low scoring output. The Jazz scored only 33 points on 12 made field goals in the first half, the lowest totals in any half by a Warriors’ opponent this season. They scored 15 fewer points in that game than would be expected if they were to take the exact same shots again. On the other side, it was business as usual for the Warriors with average shot taking and average shot making in their victory. Stephen Curry single-handedly matched the scoring output of Utah’s entire starting lineup:

Meanwhile, Gordon Hayward struggled to put the ball in the basket that night. In his lowest scoring output of the season, Hayward – Utah’s lone All-Star – totaled only six points on 10 shot attempts in 27 minutes, bottled up by Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant (the two most frequent halfcourt defenders).  Thompson, one of the league’s premiere perimeter defenders, has consistently locked up the Jazz’ leading scorer, ranking among the top three toughest defensive matchups in the league for Hayward over the last two seasons (based on player and team efficiency in halfcourt possessions). If Thompson continues to make life hard for Hayward, Utah is going to have to find scoring elsewhere.

With Thompson and Durant limiting Hayward in that second matchup, veteran Joe Johnson was the Jazz’ leading scorer. Johnson is likely to be one of the guys Utah turns to for supplemental scoring in the series ahead, and he’s been on a tear ever since the playoffs started, providing some clutch performances in the process. Johnson delivered the game-winner to steal Game 1 against the Clippers, and then came through with a dominating performance in Game 4 to even the series.

As shown in the graphic above, Johnson created several scoring opportunities off paint drives to his right. Johnson clearly favors going to his right, as 64 percent of his paint drives in the regular season were to that side. Moving forward, Golden State may consider forcing ‘Iso Joe’ to his left.

The Warriors and Jazz are quite similar in that they’re both tremendous defensive teams with two leading candidates for Defensive Player of the Year in Draymond Green and Rudy Gobert as their respective anchors. On the opposite end of the floor, however, they are fundamentally different.

Golden State led the NBA in scoring average and operated at the fourth-fastest pace in the league during the regular season. The Jazz averaged 15.2 fewer points per game than the Warriors, and yet were still able to post the fifth-best net rating in the league, thanks in large part to their ability to dictate the tempo; no team played at a slower pace than the Jazz during the regular season.

To contrast the teams, the average Warriors possession during the regular season (where a new possession is counted following an offensive rebound) lasted only 10.4 seconds (second-shortest in the NBA) while the Jazz averaged 12.7 seconds per offensive possession (second-longest in the NBA). Against an elite defensive team like Utah, Golden State must find ways to score in the open court. On the flip side, one would expect the Jazz will look to shorten the game by going deep into the shot clock – something we’ll look at throughout the series.

After a regular season series where both teams were beat up, NBA fans can look forward to a Western Conference Semifinal where the teams are at or near full strength. Pace of play, along with the Warriors’ ability to limit Utah’s primary options and the Jazz’ success in finding supplementary scoring are three factors that could go a long way towards determining a series victor, who will find themselves halfway to the ultimate goal of an NBA Championship.

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Analyzing the first two games of the Warriors-Blazers first round series with the help of MOCAP Analytics.

The Warriors hold a 2-0 series lead in their first round matchup with the Trail Blazers, but they earned each victory in considerably different ways. Game 1 came down to the final quarter of play, while Golden State won Game 2 in runaway fashion. With the help of MOCAP Analytics, we’ll take a look at some of the reasons why those two games played out the way they did, as well as look ahead to what could be in store for Games 3 and 4.

Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were the highest scoring backcourt in the Western Conference in the regular season, and their play through the first two games of the series had a significant impact on the competitiveness of those contests. Game 1 saw 15 ties, 22 lead changes and two tremendous shooting performances from Portland’s backcourt before Golden State ran away with the game in the final quarter. Lillard and McCollum combined to hit 28 of their 54 shots from the field for 75 points in that game, a scoring output that far exceeded the expected total given the quality of the shots they attempted.

As shown in the graphic above, McCollum led Portland’s charge with some improbable shot making. His 41 points in the contest were nine more than would be expected if he were to attempt those exact same shots again. Lillard accounted for four more points than would be expected.

However, the Blazers’ luck took a downturn in Game 2, as Golden State built an early double-digit lead and rode that all the way to a rout. Portland was unable to keep up offensively, due in large part to some poor shot making on behalf of their backcourt.

McCollum totaled only 11 points in Game 2, six fewer than would be expected if he were to attempt those exact same shots again. Lillard was marginally better, accounting for 12 points (five fewer than expected).

With the majority of the Warriors’ defensive attention focused on Portland’s two dynamic guards – and deservedly so – that has opened up the court for the Trail Blazers’ supporting cast, many of whom have been the beneficiaries of promising shot opportunities. Players like Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless have displayed good shot taking, leading Portland in expected points per shooting play through the first two games of the series.

However, good shot taking does not guarantee good shot making, and Portland’s reserves have struggled to provide a significant scoring contribution despite their good looks. Crabbe and Harkless have combined to shoot just 14-for-43 (.326) from the field so far in the series for an average of 17.5 combined points per game. If you subscribe to the notion that role players perform better at home, then this might be something to pay attention to as the series shifts to Portland for Games 3 and 4.

Speaking of role players, the Warriors’ supporting cast provided a huge boost in Golden State’s big win in Game 2, and there wasn’t a player on the court who was more efficient than JaVale McGee.

McGee became the first player in NBA playoff history to account for 15-or-more points and four-or-more blocks in less than 15 minutes of play, and also tied the Warriors' postseason record for most field goals made without a miss, making all seven of his shots on his way to 15 points. As shown in the graphic above, all of McGee’s points came within or immediately outside of the restricted area, as Golden State consistently took advantage of McGee’s superior length when Portland went small.

If the Trail Blazers are to get back in the series, they’ll likely need quality shot making not just from their star-studded backcourt, but from members of their supporting cast as well. On the other end of the court, they’ll likely need to limit the Warriors’ overall effectiveness in the paint and force Golden State to convert shots that have an inherently less likely probability of going in. Of course, with sharpshooters like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson on the roster, it’s possible that still may not be enough. The Splash Brothers have shot just 22-of-55 (.400) from the field through the first two games of the series, and if they’re able to have more success in the next two, it could greatly improve Golden State’s chances of coming away with a crucial victory or two while in Portland.

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A look back at what transpired in the regular season series between the Warriors and Trail Blazers with the help of MOCAP Analytics.

When the Warriors and Trail Blazers tip off Game 1 of their first round playoff series on Sunday, we’ll see two of the most potent offensive teams the NBA has to offer in action. Golden State had the most efficient offense in the league over the course of the regular season, averaging 113.2 points per 100 possessions, while Portland ranked 11th in that category (107.8). However, the difference between the two offenses was extremely marginal from mid-February on, as the Warriors and Trail Blazers posted the fourth and fifth best offensive ratings in the NBA after the All-Star break and were separated by just 0.3 points per 100 possessions over that span. All four regular season matchups between the two teams (which Golden State swept 4-0) took place before the end of January, however, and a considerable portion of the Warriors’ success in those games was due to the kind of shots they took.

Using artificial intelligence and SportVu player-tracking data from thousands of NBA games, MOCAP Analytics has developed a model that estimates the probability of making any attempted shot or free throw. The model takes into account specific information about the shooter and defenders, along with many features (e.g., shot location, distances to defenders, actions prior to the shot). Using the probabilities of the shots taken in a game, MOCAP can measure the quality of ‘shot taking’ by counting how much each team or player ‘should have scored’ on these shots (i.e., expected score). In addition, by comparing actual scores with expected scores, MOCAP estimates the ‘shot making’ performance (or luck, depending on your point of view) in the scoring output for any player or team.

Through the graphics above, we can see that in their four regular season matchups, not only did the Warriors attempt higher quality shots (1.18 expected points per shooting play) than the Trail Blazers (1.06), they also outperformed as shot makers, scoring 0.08 more points than expected per shooting play. Great shot selection and good shot making had plenty to do with the Warriors outscoring the Trail Blazers by an average score of 125-106.

Here we can see examples of some great shot taking by Kevin Durant, who averaged an impressive 1.25 expected points per shooting play in the season series:

And here are some examples of great shot making by Stephen Curry, who scored 0.17 more points than expected on his shooting plays in the season series:

As you can see, it doesn’t hurt to have multiple world-class shooters on the roster, but by taking higher quality shots, and making more shots than expected, the Warriors put themselves in great position to win. Next let’s take a look at the activity leading up to some of these shooting plays.

Here we see the shot tracks of Kevin Durant and C.J. McCollum from the final – and closest – regular season matchup between the two teams, a 113-111 Warriors victory on January 29th. These charts display player movement on shooting plays leading up to their attempts. The white streaks show the off-ball action, while the orange streaks show on-ball action. The green circles at the end of the streaks indicate made shots, while the red crosses signal missed shots.

As shown in the shot tracks graphics, both players are versatile and can play on or off the ball. Durant attacked the paint and dribbled into several shots quickly after crossing halfcourt. According to NBA.com/stats, Durant shot 64.2 percent during the season on shots resulting from drives, the best efficiency in the league of any player who attempted at least 2.3 drives per game this season. McCollum’s shot tracks reveal several shooting plays where he sprints off screens, a signature of Portland’s offense. It’s no surprise McCollum ran 2.59 miles per game this season (second most in the NBA according to NBA.com/stats).

Of course, all of this data is based of the regular season series between the Warriors and Trail Blazers, and who knows what’s in store in the first round series ahead. After all, it will have been more than two-and-a-half months since the last time they faced each other when Game 1 tips off on Sunday, and both sides have certainly made adjustments since then. Still, by gaining insight into some of the reasons behind the Warriors’ success in the regular season series, we now have a better idea of how Golden State may plan to attack Portland, and vice versa. The game will always be played on the court, but the numbers help us better understand why what we’re seeing is happening.

Keep an eye out for more Dubs Deep Dives with the help of MOCAP Analytics throughout the postseason.