Analyzing the first two games of the Warriors-Blazers first round series with the help of MOCAP Analytics.
The Warriors hold a 2-0 series lead in their first round matchup with the Trail Blazers, but they earned each victory in considerably different ways. Game 1 came down to the final quarter of play, while Golden State won Game 2 in runaway fashion. With the help of MOCAP Analytics, we’ll take a look at some of the reasons why those two games played out the way they did, as well as look ahead to what could be in store for Games 3 and 4.
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum were the highest scoring backcourt in the Western Conference in the regular season, and their play through the first two games of the series had a significant impact on the competitiveness of those contests. Game 1 saw 15 ties, 22 lead changes and two tremendous shooting performances from Portland’s backcourt before Golden State ran away with the game in the final quarter. Lillard and McCollum combined to hit 28 of their 54 shots from the field for 75 points in that game, a scoring output that far exceeded the expected total given the quality of the shots they attempted.
As shown in the graphic above, McCollum led Portland’s charge with some improbable shot making. His 41 points in the contest were nine more than would be expected if he were to attempt those exact same shots again. Lillard accounted for four more points than would be expected.
However, the Blazers’ luck took a downturn in Game 2, as Golden State built an early double-digit lead and rode that all the way to a rout. Portland was unable to keep up offensively, due in large part to some poor shot making on behalf of their backcourt.
McCollum totaled only 11 points in Game 2, six fewer than would be expected if he were to attempt those exact same shots again. Lillard was marginally better, accounting for 12 points (five fewer than expected).
With the majority of the Warriors’ defensive attention focused on Portland’s two dynamic guards – and deservedly so – that has opened up the court for the Trail Blazers’ supporting cast, many of whom have been the beneficiaries of promising shot opportunities. Players like Allen Crabbe and Maurice Harkless have displayed good shot taking, leading Portland in expected points per shooting play through the first two games of the series.
However, good shot taking does not guarantee good shot making, and Portland’s reserves have struggled to provide a significant scoring contribution despite their good looks. Crabbe and Harkless have combined to shoot just 14-for-43 (.326) from the field so far in the series for an average of 17.5 combined points per game. If you subscribe to the notion that role players perform better at home, then this might be something to pay attention to as the series shifts to Portland for Games 3 and 4.
Speaking of role players, the Warriors’ supporting cast provided a huge boost in Golden State’s big win in Game 2, and there wasn’t a player on the court who was more efficient than JaVale McGee.
McGee became the first player in NBA playoff history to account for 15-or-more points and four-or-more blocks in less than 15 minutes of play, and also tied the Warriors' postseason record for most field goals made without a miss, making all seven of his shots on his way to 15 points. As shown in the graphic above, all of McGee’s points came within or immediately outside of the restricted area, as Golden State consistently took advantage of McGee’s superior length when Portland went small.
If the Trail Blazers are to get back in the series, they’ll likely need quality shot making not just from their star-studded backcourt, but from members of their supporting cast as well. On the other end of the court, they’ll likely need to limit the Warriors’ overall effectiveness in the paint and force Golden State to convert shots that have an inherently less likely probability of going in. Of course, with sharpshooters like Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson on the roster, it’s possible that still may not be enough. The Splash Brothers have shot just 22-of-55 (.400) from the field through the first two games of the series, and if they’re able to have more success in the next two, it could greatly improve Golden State’s chances of coming away with a crucial victory or two while in Portland.