Previewing the Western Conference Finals between the Warriors and Spurs with the help of MOCAP Analytics.
The Warriors have made it to the Western Conference Finals without losing a game this postseason, but now encounter their toughest opponent yet – the San Antonio Spurs.
One could argue the Spurs have been the Warriors' toughest regular season opponent over the last three years, winning five times, while no other team has beaten Golden State more than three times during that span. They were one of only two teams in the NBA to earn multiple wins against the Dubs this season, and were the only team to win the regular season series.
San Antonio thoroughly outplayed Golden State in their two regular season victories. In the season opener back on October 25th, the Spurs dealt the Warriors their worst loss of the year, 129-100. Then in their March 11th matchup—a battle of the benches—San Antonio beat Golden State by 22 points. Playing their fifth game in seven nights and already without Kevin Durant due to injury, Golden State sat Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andre Iguodala for that game, while San Antonio was without Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Tony Parker and Dejounte Murray.
18 days later, with both teams at near full strength, they met for the third and final time in the regular season. It started out poorly for Golden State, falling behind by 22 points in the first quarter before their star-studded backcourt helped lead a furious comeback to claim the victory.
Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson combined for 52 points on 50.0 percent shooting from the field and knocked down four three-pointers apiece in the win. The Splash Brothers created great looks, each averaging 1.19 expected points per shooting play. David West, a mid-range specialist, was right behind them at 1.18 points per shooting play.
Speaking of the mid-range game, few teams rely on it as much as the Spurs. They have a couple of highly efficient mid-range bigs on their roster in LaMarcus Aldridge and Pau Gasol, who often score on pick-and-pop plays and post isos.
Aldridge can be particularly lethal in the mid-range, as he was in the Spurs' deciding Game 6 win over the Rockets.
As shown in the graphics above, Aldridge was extremely effective from the left mid-post in Game 6, one of his favorite spots on the floor. During the regular season, San Antonio averaged 1.12 points per play following Aldridge's touches in the left-mid post area. Look for Aldridge to work for position in that area of the floor, while Golden State may try to force him out of his comfort zone.
The Spurs got dominated in Game 1 against the Rockets, and responded by inserting Gasol into the starting lineup. The Aldridge-Gasol frontcourt then led the Spurs to wins in four of their next five games to advance. That wasn't the only major change to the starting lineup, however. Tony Parker went down with a ruptured left quadriceps tendon in Game 2, forcing him out for the remainder of the playoffs. Patty Mills has stepped into his place, and while he's a different kind of player than Parker, Mills has been effective in the four full games since.
Mills is more of a shooter than Parker, and sure enough, a high percentage of Mills' shot attempts are long twos and three-point attempts.
"He can shoot from range," said Mike Brown of Mills following Warriors' practice on Friday. "The biggest thing that he does...he moves so well without the ball, so you can never relax on him. If he has the ball in his hands, you have to make sure you stay connected, because if you don't he's knocking down a three. If he gives the ball up, if you take a breath...next thing you know he's taking off, he's relocating behind the three-point line, and it's another made three."
Below is Mills' shot track from the Spurs' Game 5 overtime win against the Rockets, which shows him relocating around the three-point line to create catch-and-shoot opportunities (long white streaks), as well as his ability to create threes off the bounce (long orange streaks).
While the Spurs have played far more often with Parker as their starting point guard, one could argue Mills has actually been more effective in a starting role.
Although the total plus-minus is higher for the lineup with Parker (due to more minutes on the floor), the lineup with Mills actually created better shots (1.14 expected points per shooting play compared to 1.07 with Parker). The lineup with Mills also played with more pace, attempting shots earlier in the shot clock. To minimize Mills' effectiveness, Golden State needs to stay attached to him on the perimeter and not give him too much space to get his shot off.
Between the Warriors and Spurs, this upcoming Western Conference Finals series pits the league's top offense and defense against one another in a postseason series for the fourth time in the last 30 years. In the three previous matchups, the series winner went on to win the NBA Championship. Will it be four-for-four? Time will tell, but the team that best exploits the oppositions' weaknesses—as few as there are—may have the best chance to repeat history.