Tuesday’s NBA draft lottery has commonly been described by analysts as a monumental event – with a much greater impact than in most years – partly because multiple teams are facing drastically different best case/worst case scenarios. For example, Houston and Minnesota each may earn a top-three pick, or lose a first-round selection altogether.
New Orleans is not in that group of franchises concerned with potentially catastrophic consequences in Tuesday’s lottery, but the Pelicans still have a great deal at stake. The outcome of the lottery for New Orleans will determine exactly where it selects in Round 1 at the July 29 draft, a detail that could have a significant impact on how to proceed next month, whether that’s by adding a promising high draftee, or using the pick as a trade asset.
“Perhaps some of (the team’s roster needs this summer) will be (addressed by) this draft pick,” Executive Vice President of Basketball Operations David Griffin said May 17. “Perhaps our draft pick will go to work for us in finding another veteran piece who has more of that winning mettle. We’re in a situation where there is a world of optionality available to us.”
Speaking of many options, there are nine possible lottery outcomes for New Orleans in Tuesday’s lottery. The Pelicans enter the drawing in the No. 10 “pre-lottery slot.” Here is the percentage chance of each of those occurring for New Orleans:
No. 1 pick: 4.5 percent
No. 2 pick: 4.8 percent
No. 3 pick: 5.2 percent
No. 4 pick: 5.7 percent
No. 10 pick: 60.6 percent
No. 11 pick: 17.9 percent
No. 12 pick: 1.2 percent
No. 13 pick: > 0.0 percent
No. 14 pick: > 0.0 percent
By adding the first four possibilities, the Pelicans have roughly a 20.3 percent chance of moving into the top four of a draft class that’s considered to have a top tier of a handful of elite prospects.
New Orleans finished tied for the NBA’s eighth-worst record in 2020-21, but lost a tiebreaker drawing with two other teams, moving the Pelicans to the aforementioned 10th pre-lottery slot (as a result, Chicago and Sacramento are eighth and ninth, respectively).
While New Orleans is poised to add another lottery draftee July 29, or use the asset to acquire other roster pieces, keep in mind that the Pelicans are also well-positioned and possess additional flexibility based on future drafts. As a result of trades with the Lakers and Milwaukee involving Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday, the Pelicans have an array of extra first-round picks coming their way beginning in June 2022, in addition to owning their own picks.
“The pick assets we have give us incredible flexibility,” Griffin said May 17. “And because we have a young group (of current players) where most of them are on rookie-scale (contracts) – and other players we’re very high on, we’ve secured for multiple years at affordable numbers – we’ll be able to be aggressive if the right fit exists for us. I think you could see us do virtually anything (in terms of how those assets are used) in that space.”