Beat the odds and get ready to add a potential franchise-changing player, picking from the top of a draft class that is receiving universal praise. Fail to do so and you’ll have to wait until the second round and 40th pick overall to add a player. There is no in-between.
That’s the all-or-nothing scenario facing the New Orleans Pelicans entering Tuesday’s 2017 NBA Draft Lottery (7:30 p.m. Central, ESPN). New Orleans (34-48 in 2016-17) has been placed in the No. 10 pre-lottery slot, which carries 1.1 percent odds of winning. However, the more critical percentage for the Pelicans and fans to focus on is actually 4.0 percent, the odds of earning a top-three selection. Based on the details of their February blockbuster trade with Sacramento for three-time All-Star big DeMarcus Cousins, the first-round pick exchanged in the deal was top-three protected, meaning the Pelicans will keep it if they earn one of the first three picks during Tuesday’s lottery. Otherwise, their June first-round selection will be conveyed to the Kings.
Since only the top three picks are “won” in the lottery – the remaining spots 4-14 are based on reverse order of won-loss record – New Orleans can only end up at 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 12 or 13 at the conclusion of the lottery. Again, if the Pelicans land in any of those double-digit spots, the Kings will automatically be conveyed the pick.
Here’s a look at what’s at stake for New Orleans and the other 13 teams participating in Tuesday’s lottery (7:30 p.m. Central), which will take place prior to a Western Conference finals game on ESPN:
NEW ORLEANS
Pre-lottery slot: 10
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 4.0
What a top-three pick would mean: For a Pelicans squad that already boasts a pair of perennial frontcourt All-Stars, the ’17 draft class is teeming at the top with promising backcourt and wing players. According to virtually every major mock draft, the top seven or so projected picks are either guards or small forwards.
BOSTON
Pre-lottery slot: 1
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 64.3
What a top-three pick would mean: The Celtics are the only lottery participant still playing in the postseason, the beneficiary of a one-sided trade with Brooklyn. Adding an impact player could make Boston even more dangerous in its attempt to dethrone LeBron James from his long-standing perch atop the East.
PHOENIX
Pre-lottery slot: 2
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 55.8
What a top-three pick would mean: The Suns, who are guaranteed a pick in the top five, are assured of being able to add to their young core, which is headlined by Devin Booker, the producer of a 70-point game at Boston this season.
L.A. LAKERS
Pre-lottery slot: 3
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 46.9
What a top-three pick would mean: Coming off a fourth straight non-playoff season as they try to rebuild with recent high draftees, this is a monumental lottery for the Lakers. If the 53.1 percent odds prevail of them not finishing in the top three, their pick will be conveyed to Philadelphia.
PHILADELPHIA
Pre-lottery slot: 4
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 37.8
What a top-three pick would mean: If the ping-pong balls bounce exactly the right way, the 76ers will be the biggest lotto winners in years. Philadelphia has a chance to earn two picks in the top four, if it wins the lottery and the Lakers’ pick drops to 4. Last year’s lotto-night victory resulted in landing Ben Simmons, who hopes to join premier ’16-17 rookie Joel Embiid on the court this fall.
ORLANDO
Pre-lottery slot: 5
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 29.1
What a top-three pick would mean: The Magic were slowly improving each season in the win column before changing course last summer and trading a lottery pick for Serge Ibaka, who was later dealt to Toronto. Orlando needs a franchise-altering player; multiple recent top-10 selections have not yielded a winning squad.
MINNESOTA
Pre-lottery slot: 6
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 18.3
What a top-three pick would mean: The Timberwolves already have some of the NBA’s best young talent in Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins, but would be able to add another key piece to a team that wants to make a tangible jump in Year 2 under Tom Thibodeau.
NEW YORK
Pre-lottery slot: 7
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 18.3
What a top-three pick would mean: A much-needed positive and silver lining to a disappointing and tumultuous 2016-17. The Knicks have missed out on picking high in the draft multiple times in recent years due to ill-advised trades, but could bring in another key young piece to add to promising Kristaps Porzingis.
SACRAMENTO
Pre-lottery slot: 8
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 9.9
What a top-three pick would mean: The Kings, who went into full-scale rebuilding mode at the trade deadline, have perhaps the most complicated lottery-night situation of any participant. Sacramento will get New Orleans’ first-round pick, unless the Pelicans finish in the top three. Meanwhile, if the Kings finish better than the 76ers at the lottery, they must swap picks with Philadelphia. In addition, there is a nightmare scenario – one that is extremely unlikely – in which Sacramento ends up with no lottery pick, but it would require three teams to jump the Kings in the order. If Sacramento ends up at 11 in the lottery, Chicago would be conveyed that pick.
DALLAS
Lottery slot: 9
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 6.1
What a top-three pick would mean: The Mavericks began to get younger last season, starting the process for eventually dealing with life after lock Hall of Famer Dirk Nowitzki. Dallas has not picked in the top three of the draft since choosing Jason Kidd second in 1994.
CHARLOTTE
Lottery slot: 11
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 2.9
What a top-three pick would mean: During the 2004-present era, the artists formerly known as the Bobcats have had extremely poor lottery luck, including placing second in the ’12 Anthony Davis sweepstakes. This would present a chance to add another potential star next to first-time All-Star guard Kemba Walker.
DETROIT
Lottery slot: 12
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 2.5
What a top-three pick would mean: The Pistons took a step back in ’16-17 after showing so much promise a season earlier behind the inside-outside duo of Andre Drummond and Reggie Jackson. A huge lottery jump would allow Detroit to add a difference-maker at the top of its roster.
DENVER
Lottery slot: 13
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 2.2
What a top-three pick would mean: The Nuggets already possess several talented young players, highlighted by likely future All-Star forward/center Nikola Jokic. Denver’s steady year-to-year improvement probably will happen regardless, but a high-lottery selection could accelerate that process.
MIAMI
Lottery slot: 14
Percentage chance of earning top-three pick: 1.8
What a top-three pick would mean: It’s not often that a team goes 30-11 in the second half of a regular season but still qualifies for the lottery – in fact, it’s never happened in NBA history. The Heat already have much to build on based on their close to ’16-17, but would be ecstatic to claim more help for a team many will pick to make the playoffs next spring.