Over the next few weeks, you’re likely to hear discussion from prognosticators that the first round of the July 29 NBA draft “might not get really interesting until the seventh pick.” Although draft opinions are always subject to change – and the stock of individual players may dramatically rise or fall as the event approaches – conventional thinking dictates that 2021’s class features a “top tier” of a handful of players. After that, there seems to be significantly more unpredictability in terms of draft projections; to use one example, Duke forward Jalen Johnson is listed as the No. 7 pick on SB Nation’s mock draft, but he’s not even a top-14 lottery selection in recent mocks by The Athletic and CBSSports.com.
That wide range of opinions in the middle portion of the lottery is an element of this draft that could make for some interesting viewing during ESPN’s July 29 live coverage. With that in mind, here are the five prospects currently predicted to go in lottery spots 6 through 10 (Note: The order here is based on NBA.com’s recent consensus mock draft, which scours numerous websites and compiles an average for when each prospect is projected to be picked):
6 Scottie Barnes, Florida State freshman forward
High-energy, athletic wing with excellent size (6-9, 227), one of several prospects in this range whose defense gets top billing in analysis. Praised for his floor vision and passing ability, as evidenced by high assist tally (4.1 apg) with the Seminoles. Like many young players, perimeter shot (28 percent on threes) is a work in progress.
Key stats: averaged 10.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.5 steals in only 24.8 minutes
NBADraft.net comparison: Draymond Green
7 Davion Mitchell, Baylor junior guard
A breakout star, the 6-2 Mitchell helped lead the Bears to their first national title. ESPN.com’s Mike Schmitz calls him “one of the best defenders I’ve ever evaluated, especially on the ball.” Made drastic jump in offensive efficiency (41 to 51 percent from field, 32 to 45 percent on threes) over two seasons at Baylor.
Key stats: averaged 14.0 points, 5.5 assists, 1.9 steals
CBSSports.com comparison: Donovan Mitchell
8 Keon Johnson, Tennessee freshman guard
Known as an elite athlete, Johnson added further to that reputation by breaking the draft combine’s record with a vertical leap of 48 inches. Highlight reel is filled with dunks, soaring blocks, aggressive drives. Also gets to foul line, but didn’t do much damage from perimeter (just 13 made threes in 27 games).
Key stats: averaged 11.3 points, 1.1 steals
NBADraft.net comparison: Latrell Sprewell
9 Franz Wagner, Michigan sophomore guard/forward
The younger brother of three-year NBA big Moe Wagner has a fairly unique set of strengths for a lottery pick. The Athletic describes Franz as “an interesting 3-and-D prospect at 6-9,” saying his “off-ball instincts are absolutely spectacular” on defense. Offensive upside may be contingent on improving three-point shot (33 percent).
Key stats: averaged 12.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists
NBADraft.net comparison: Nemanja Bjelica
10 Josh Giddey, Australian guard/forward
Passing is the aspect of his game that gets the most recognition, but he proved to be an all-around factor as an 18-year-old pro in 2020-21, averaging over seven boards a game, sixth in the ABL. At 6-8, he’s regarded as a playmaker who must improve his shooting to become a more dangerous offensive player in NBA.
Key stats: averaged 10.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 7.3 assists
NBADraft.net comparison: Joe Ingles