After nearly a full week of recovery, preparation, and anticipation, the 2021 NBA Playoffs will finally get underway Saturday.
The opening day of games will conclude with Game 1 between the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers, a series between two familiar foes that is too close to confidently predict.
MORE: First-round series guide
Denver won the regular-season series 2-1, but both teams have changed rotations significantly throughout the season due to midseason trades or injuries.
The first game of the series can set the tone, with both teams looking to jump out to a quick start. With Denver continuing to miss key members of the backcourt due to injury, all eyes will be on how the Nuggets defend Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum.
Projected starters: Facundo Campazzo, Austin Rivers, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokić
Injury report:
JAMAL MURRAY – LEFT ACL SURGERY. OUT
WILL BARTON III – RIGHT HAMSTRING STRAIN. OUT.
P.J. DOZIER – RIGHT ADDUCTOR STRAIN. OUT.
AUSTIN RIVERS – NON-COVID RELATED ILLNESS. QUESTIONABLE.
TUNE-IN: 8:30 p.m. MT, ESPN and Altitude TV, 92.5FM
Key matchup: Nikola Jokić vs. Jusuf Nurkić
Nurkić’s presence in this series does change things significantly for Portland compared to the 2019 Conference semifinals, as he is a capable passer from the center position to help bring additional flow to the offense, while his physicality and rebounding will help Portland’s struggling defense. With Nurkić on the court this season, Portland’s defense has been 10.1 points per 100 possessions better, which ranks in the 98th percentile.
However, Jokić has had success against his former teammates this season.
Across two games this season, Jokić shot 12-of-24 when directly guarded by Nurkić, according to the NBA’s tracking data. However, in those minutes, Denver’s three-time All-Star shot just 1-of-8 from beyond the arc, dragging down the overall efficiency. Inside the arc, Jokić connected on 11-of-16 against Nurkić, which bodes well for his ability to generate his own offense throughout the series.
If Jokić can consistently get to his spots on the floor and score against Nurkić, Portland will be forced to decide between sending a second defender his way or focusing on taking away Denver’s other weapons, most notably Michael Porter Jr.
The battle on the offensive glass
One area to keep an eye on throughout the entire series is the battle on the boards, particularly on the offensive end of the floor.
Both Portland and Denver have used elite offensive rebounding to help propel their respective offenses, with the Trail Blazers ranking ninth in offensive rebound percentage (26.3 percent) and the Nuggets ranking second at 28.4 percent in the regular season.
However, Denver may have the upper hand in his regard due to Portland’s struggles to end defensive possessions with a rebound. The Trail Blazers finished the regular season ranked 21st in opponent offensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to grab a rebound on 25.5 percent of missed shots.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets ranked seventh in opponent offensive rebound percentage at 24 percent. Rebounding may very well decide several games throughout this series, so getting off to a good start on the glass Saturday night will be key for Denver.
Can Porter Jr. establish himself early?
There will be a lot of eyes on Michael Porter Jr. throughout this series as he begins his second postseason appearance. However, unlike the 2020 playoffs, the 22-year-old forward will have a major role in Denver’s offense as the second option behind Jokić.
As a result, Portland’s coaching staff will likely prepare specific defensive schemes and coverages to make life difficult for Porter Jr. How the Most Improved Player of the Year finalist responds will likely make-or-break the series for Denver.
After the All-Star break, Porter Jr. cemented himself as a deadly and consistent scorer, averaging 22.3 points on 56.4 percent shooting from the field, including 46.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Portland will likely throw both Norman Powell and Robert Covington at Porter Jr. throughout the series, so Saturday presents a good opportunity to feel out those matchups and give Porter Jr. a chance to pick his spots to attack.