2021 NBA Draft

Consensus Mock Draft: Top 3 seems clear in final look before Draft night

In the final update before Draft night, the top is becoming settled, but then uncertainty abounds as teams make their final decisions.

Drew Packham, NBA.com

Josh Giddey has seen his name climb the boards after an impressive showing for Australia in an exhibition vs. Nigeria earlier this month.

Some notes in our final look before the 2021 NBA Draft, where the Detroit Pistons are on the clock with the No. 1 pick.

Remember, the Consensus Mock Draft is a compilation of the best mock drafts around the web. We bring them together to provide a solid estimate of how the Draft could play out (Last update: July 28, 11:32 p.m. ET):

  • In our final look at the best mock drafts around the internet, the top three is virtually a lock: Cade Cunningham is the consensus No. 1 pick, showing up first in all 12 mocks that we scanned. Barring a major trade, it would provide a significant shock if the Oklahoma State guard isn’t walking on the stage first Thursday night.
  • In our last look, Jalen Green had taken over Evan Mobley for the No. 2 spot in a notable shakeup. Since then, the other mocks have all come around and there’s now a complete consensus with all 12 showing the Rockets taking Green, who spent last season with the Ignite (G League). The Ringer’s Kevin O’Connor says Houston is still pursuing the No. 1 pick, but if not, the Rockets will be able to pair him with Kevin Porter Jr., who became close with Green while playing together for the Ignite in the G League bubble last season.
  • While Mobley dropped from No. 2, it’s highly likely the Cavs will snatch up the big man, as 11 of the 12 mocks have him heading to Cleveland (Kyle Boone of CBS Sports has Scottie Barnes here, with Mobley going 4th to Toronto). Mobley is considered the best big man in the Draft and will fit in well alongside Jarrett Allen in the frontcourt.
  • Suggs still seems likely to go in the Top 4 as nine of the 12 mock drafts see him going to the Raptors at No. 4. That’s the closest thing we have to a consensus outside of the first three picks.
  • While Jonathan Kuminga had previously been a potential No. 4 pick, he has seen his name drop in the most recent mock drafts. In this latest look he is now slotting in the 6-7-8 range, with ESPN’s Jonathan Givony saying “question marks regarding his offensive efficiency and approach have crept into the conversation and allowed other prospects to surpass him.” Still, if the Magic don’t grab him with the No. 5 pick, you have to think they’ll be thrilled if he’s still available at No. 8 when they pick again.
  • The Kings are looking like a likely landing spot for Franz Wagner. The 6-foot-9 swingman shows up in half of the 12 mocks, so there’s likely some intel that Sacramento is eyeing the Michigan product.
  • The player making the biggest jump on the eve of the Draft is Australian guard Josh Giddey. Six of the 12 mocks see him going to the Grizzlies, who reportedly landed the No. 10 pick in a recent trade with the Pelicans. The Grizzlies may have to sweat this one out, though, since there’s chatter that Golden State is high on the 18-year-old guard, who ESPN’s Jonathan Givony calls “one of the best passers in the draft.”
  • We’re getting more clarity on one player who’s been climbing up the rankings — James Bouknight.  If he’s still available at No. 6, it’s seeming likely the Thunder will grab the UConn shooting guard to pair alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Eight of the 12 mocks we survey see him heading there, with three others pegging him a pick later to Golden State. Of course, OKC has a ton of flexibility with a stockpile of picks, so they could be in play to move up if a trade is to be had.
  • Another player popping up this week is Oregon’s Chris Duarte, who now appears seven times to the Warriors with the No. 14 pick (only four had him here in our last look). He hadn’t shown up in the Lottery at all until our last look, but it’s possible Golden State thinks the 24-year-old can step right in and contribute right away. He did skip the Combine, which leads some prognosticators to surmise he has a promise from some team.
  • On the international front, Turkey’s Alperen Sengun has seen his name rise in the most recent mocks. The 18-year-old Sengun is “one of the most prolific and efficient teenagers in European basketball history,” according to ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, and six of our 12 mocks see the Spurs snatching the big man up if he’s available with the No. 12 pick.
  • Davion Mitchell has seen his name slide and he now seems likely to go near the end of the Lottery. All 12 mocks we survey still have the Baylor guard in the Lottery, with seven slotting him to the Pacers at No. 13. If the Warriors don’t take him with the No. 7 pick (which is the prediction of CBS Sports’ Gary Parrish), they could be in play to grab him with the No. 14 pick (as three mocks predict).
  • Nine players appear in the lottery in all 12 mocks we survey: Cunningham, Green, Mobley, Suggs, Barnes, Kuminga, Giddey, Wagner and Mitchell.

MOST COMMON PICKS

No. 1 (Pistons): Cade Cunningham (12)

No. 2 (Rockets): Jalen Green (12)

No. 3 (Cavaliers): Evan Mobley (11)

No. 4 (Raptors): Jalen Suggs (9)

No. 5 (Magic): Scottie Barnes (8)

No. 6 (Thunder): James Bouknight (8)

No. 7 (Warriors): Jonathan Kuminga (4)

No. 8 (Magic): Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody (4)

No. 9 (Kings): Franz Wagner (6)

No. 10 (Pelicans): Josh Giddey (6)

No. 11 (Hornets): Kai Jones (4)

No. 12 (Spurs): Alperen Sengun (6)

No. 13 (Pacers): Davion Mitchell (7)

No. 14 (Warriors): Chris Duarte (7)

Most common (above): Pick at which the player is most commonly projected, with number of mock drafts in parentheses. For example, Cade Cunningham is projected to go 1st in each of the 12 mock drafts listed below.


Top 14 (below): To calculate the consensus, we award 14 points for every mock draft in which the player went first overall, 13 for second, continuing to one point for the final lottery pick. The player with the highest point total represents the top overall selection, which is as follows:

1. Cade Cunningham | Pistons

Oklahoma State | Position: G | Height: 6-8

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 1 (12)

Athletic scorer who can shoot or use his size to overpower smaller guards; should contribute immediately and eventually become a franchise-changing star

2. Jalen Green | Rockets

G League Ignite | Position: G | Height: 6-5

Status: G League

Most Common: 2 (12)

Fluid scorer who can get buckets in many ways; highlight reel waiting to happen thanks to his athleticism and willingness to attack the rim

3. Evan Mobley | Cavaliers

USC | Position: C | Height: 7-0

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 3 (11)

Skilled big man has the size combined with athleticism to potentially become a dominant force on both ends of the floor

4. Jalen Suggs | Raptors

Gonzaga | Position: G | Height: 6-4

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 4 (9)

Smart, poised athletic guard who is ready to contribute right away thanks to decisive playmaking and willingness to defend on other end

5. Scottie Barnes | Magic

Florida State | Position: F | Height: 6-9

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 5 (8)

A playmaker at FSU wielding incredible length (7-foot-2 wingspan); defense should come quickly — how soon the shot follows determines the ceiling

6. James Bouknight | Thunder

UConn | Position: G | Height: 6-5

Status: Sophomore

Most Common: 6 (8)

Scoring guard who can simply figure out ways to get buckets when needed; streaky shooter who can help offset the misses by cleaning up on the boards

7. Jonathan Kuminga |Warriors

G League Ignite | Position: F | Height: 6-9

Status: G League

Most Common: 7, 8 (4)

A high-upside wing, whose scoring potential will be limited only by his shooting touch and decision-making

8. Josh Giddey | Magic (via Bulls)

Adelaide 36ers (Australia) | Position: G | Height: 6-8

Status: International

Most Common: 10 (6)

Big guard who can dish and defend, likely providing efficient minutes from the jump; scoring punch will determine how versatile the lineups can get

9. Franz Wagner | Kings

Michigan | Position: F | Height: 6-9

Status: Sophomore

Most Common: 9 (6)

Stretch 4 set to stretch the floor if he can extend range consistently beyond the arc; can slot within multiple offenses alongside strong creators

10. Moses Moody | Grizzlies (via Pelicans*)

Arkansas | Position: G | Height: 6-8

Status: Freshman

Most Common: 8 (4)

Helped lead Arkansas into the Elite 8; strong standstill shooter and high-volume rebounder for a two-guard

11. Alperen Sengun | Hornets

Besiktas International (Turkey) | Position: C | Height: 6-10

Status: International

Most Common: 12 (6)

Big man is known for his physical play and ability to get open around the basket; Will turn 19 days after the 2021 draft, so some seasoning to his game will be required 

12. Davion Mitchell | Spurs

Baylor | Position: G | Height: 6-2

Status: Junior

Most Common: 13 (7)

Steady hand guided Baylor to the NCAA title; displays solid shot-making, playmaking and on-ball defense, which should provide a high floor from whenever he first hits NBA hardwood

13. Corey Kispert | Pacers

Gonzaga | Position: G/F | Height: 6-7

Status: Senior

Most Common: 11 (3)

Possibly the best shooter in the draft, connected on 44% of 6.5 attempts from 3-point range (52.9% overall); should offer floor spacing from the first time he cracks a rotation 

14. Kai Jones | Warriors

Texas | Position: F | Height: 6-10

Status: Sophomore

Most Common: 11 (4)

Late-blooming forward with an impressive combination of size and athleticism who has made major strides as a shooter

Other prospects to watch:

Keon Johnson

Tennessee | Position: G/F | Height: 6-5

Status: Freshman

Rugged, aggressive defender should be able to push the pace on both ends, earning minutes with floor burns and fast breaks until the playmaking catches up

Jalen Johnson

Duke | Position: F | Height: 6-9

Status: Freshman

Multifaceted, athletic wing with all-around game that should translate well to NBA; Has explosiveness and leaping ability, can also shoot well from the outside

Last updated: July 28, 2021 (11:32 p.m. ET)


MOCK DRAFTS

ESPN.com

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Scottie Barnes
6. James Bouknight
7. Franz Wagner
8. Jonathan Kuminga
9. Moses Moody
10. Josh Giddey
11. Corey Kispert
12. Alperen Sengun
13. Davion Mitchell
14. Chris Duarte

Last updated: July 28

The Ringer

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Scottie Barnes
6. James Bouknight
7. Josh Giddey
8. Jonathan Kuminga
9. Alperen Sengun
10. Moses Moody
11. Franz Wagner
12. Keon Johnson
13. Corey Kispert
14. Davion Mitchell

Last updated: July 27

The Athletic

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Scottie Barnes
6. James Bouknight
7. Jonathan Kuminga
8. Moses Moody
9. Franz Wagner
10. Josh Giddey
11. Corey Kispert
12. Alperen Sengun
13. Davion Mitchell
14. Chris Duarte

Last updated: July 28

SI.com

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Scottie Barnes
6. James Bouknight
7. Josh Giddey
8. Jonathan Kuminga
9. Alperen Sengun
10. Franz Wagner
11. Kai Jones
12. Moses Moody
13. Corey Kispert
14. Davion Mitchell

Last updated: July 28

Yahoo Sports

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Scottie Barnes
6. Jonathan Kuminga
7. James Bouknight
8. Josh Giddey
9. Franz Wagner
10. Corey Kispert
11. Davion Mitchell
12. Kai Jones
13. Keon Johnson
14. Chris Duarte

Last updated: July 28

Bleacher Report

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Scotting Barnes
5. Jalen Suggs
6. James Bouknight
7. Jonathan Kuminga
8. Moses Moody
9. Franz Wagner
10. Josh Giddey
11. Corey Kispert
12. Alperen Segnun
13. Davion Mitchell
14. Chris Duarte

Last updated: July 28

NetScouts Basketball

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Scottie Barnes
6. Jonathan Kuminga
7. James Bouknight
8. Alperen Sengun
9. Franz Wagner
10. Josh Giddey
11. Kai Jones
12. Keon Johnson
13. Davion Mitchell
14. Chris Duarte

Last updated: July 28

CBS Sports (Gary Parrish)

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Jonathan Kuminga
6. Scottie Barnes
7. Davion Mitchell
8. James Bouknight
9. Keon Johnson
10. Moses Moody
11. Josh Giddey
12. Isaiah Jackson
13. Franz Wagner
14. Alperen Sengun

Last updated: July 28 

CBS Sports (Kyle Boone)

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Scottie Barnes
4. Evan Mobley
5. Jalen Suggs
6. James Bouknight
7. Jonathan Kuminga
8. Moses Moody
9. Franz Wagner
10. Corey Kispert
11. Alperen Segnun
12. Josh Giddey
13. Jalen Johnson
14. Davion Mitchell

Last updated: July 28

SB Nation

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Scottie Barnes
6. Jonathan Kuminga
7. James Bouknight
8. Franz Wagner
9. Moses Moody
10. Josh Giddey
11. Kai Jones
12. Alperen Segnun
13. Davion Mitchell
14. Corey Kispert

Last updated: July 28

USA Today/FTW

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Scottie Barnes
5. Jalen Suggs
6. James Bouknight
7. Josh Giddey
8. Jonathan Kuminga
9. Moses Moody
10. Franz Wagner
11. Usman Garuba
12. Alperen Segnun
13. Davion Mitchell
14. Chris Duarte

Last updated: July 28

Basketball News

1. Cade Cunningham
2. Jalen Green
3. Evan Mobley
4. Jalen Suggs
5. Scottie Barnes
6. James Bouknight
8. Jonathan Kuminga
9. Moses Moody
10. Franz Wagner
11. Josh Giddey
12. Kai Jones
12. Alperen Segnun
13. Davion Mitchell
14. Chris Duarte

Last updated: July 28

* * *

ESPN Insider: Jonathan Givony

The Ringer: Kevin O’Connor

The Athletic: Sam Vecenie

SI.com: Jeremy Woo

Bleacher Report: Jonathan Wasserman

Yahoo Sports: Krysten Peek

NetScouts Basketball: Carl Berman

CBS Sports: Kyle Boone, Gary Parrish

SB Nation: Ricky O’Donnell

USA Today / FTW: Bryan Kalbrosky

Basketball News: Matt Babcock

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