john denton; nba draft

Josh Cohen

NEW YORK – All throughout the past season talk of rampant tanking to position for the star-studded 2014 draft class dominated NBA circles and even overshadowed some of the play on the court.

But what wasn’t talked about was how the NBA Lottery, the system used to determine the order for the June 26th NBA Draft, is so massively flawed and a process that continues to fail the teams most need infusions of top talent.

Understandably, the NBA doesn’t want teams purposely losing games and rigging rosters to lock up top draft picks. The league has tried to deter that by giving the rebuilding teams, at best, only a 25 percent shot at winning the top slot.

For the 20th time in the 23 years since the weighted lottery system has been in place, the team with the worst record failed to get the first overall selection. In fact, it’s been 10 years since the last team with the worst record – coincidentally the Orlando Magic – got the first pick.

So not only is the current lottery system not deterring teams from, umm, strategically positioning themselves, it also isn’t providing relief to teams that most need the help.

There was a distinct buzz throughout the NBA Studios at Times Square on Tuesday night over how the Cleveland Cavaliers shockingly won the NBA Draft Lottery for a second year in a row and a third time in the past four years. The Cavs captured the top spot despite having just a 1.7 percent chance (17 out of 1,000 four-digit combinations), bettering eight teams ahead of them with better odds. Lyle Lovett overcame fewer obstacles in marrying Julia Roberts a decade ago than the Cavs did in winning another version of NBA Powerball.

How, some wondered, could the Basketball Gods once again reward a Cleveland franchise that actually thought undersized and overweight forward Anthony Bennett was worthy of being the No. 1 pick last year? Hopefully, the NBA will invoke a three strikes-and-out policy with the Cavs – who also wasted lottery picks on Tristan Thompson and Dion Waiters – if they whiff again a month from now.

The one silver lining from Cleveland’s lotto luck on Tuesday? It kept the Los Angeles Lakers from winning the top spot. Seeing the Lakers at the Lottery was just downright weird – kind of like if Heidi Klum were in a Dress Barn ad or if Kobe Bryant was at dinner with the deposed Mike D’Antoni.

Imagine the uproar throughout the NBA and the screams from the conspiracy theorists if the Lakers had finagled a way to get into position to land Andrew Wiggins or Jabari Parker. It would have been new NBA Commish Adam Silver’s worst LA-based nightmare since bigoted Clippers’ owner Donald Sterling decided to sit down and talk race with the whitest man in America, Anderson Cooper.

One scenario that would have been downright hilarious on Tuesday night would have been if the New York Knicks would have won the top pick … only to have to surrender it to the Denver Nuggets as compensation for the Carmelo Anthony trade years ago. That would have been even more embarrassing for the mismanaged Knicks than getting left at the altar by the unproven Steve Kerr.

Milwaukee, a 15-win team this past season, had the best odds at the No. 1 pick in Tuesday’s draft lottery, but had to stomach seeing the underachieving Cavs win. Needless to say, Bucks GM John Hammond was none too happy – not even with the No. 2 pick in his pocket.

Orlando, rebuilding following Dwight Howard’s 2012 departure, had the worst record in the league in 2013 and hoped to get the top pick only to see Cleveland jump up and win the lottery. (Maybe God doesn’t hate Cleveland after all!) The Magic caught a huge break when Cleveland foolishly picked Bennett, leaving Victor Oladipo available. Following a stellar rookie season, Oladipo looks to be a franchise fixture for the Magic for years to come.

The 2013-14 season will be, in part, remembered for what teams did to ensure themselves of getting a high draft pick in the upcoming draft. I half expected the league to come out with one of those NBA Cares style commercials honoring fans who sat through a season of purposeful losing. You know, something like, ``Tank you very much, fans.’’

Philadelphia’s move to gut its roster of two starters at midseason was an abysmal surrender message and it promptly produced the desired result with an unsightly 26-game losing streak. Maybe it was karma that kept the Sixers from getting the top pick, but they did salvage the night by coming in at No. 3.

Milwaukee similarly pulled the plug on its season following a string of injuries and a poor start. (Side note: How bad were the Bucks to be able to hold on to the NBA’s worst record even as Philly was dropping 26 straight?!?!?) Orlando and Utah were competitive throughout, but they both had rosters full of young players and more growing pains than victories.

In many ways, you can’t blame teams for doing what it takes to position themselves for high draft picks. In the NBA, it’s most beneficial to be at the top or at the bottom, but not stuck in the middle. Often, the easiest way to go up in the standings is to plummet to the bottom first. Sometimes one great player or even a string of really good ones culled from the draft can reverse a team’s fortunes dramatically.

For some small markets/low profile teams, getting a top pick in the draft is their one and only shot at landing a franchise player. Let’s face it, elite free agents aren’t going to Milwaukee, Salt Lake City or, for that matter, Cleveland given the choice. Three teams in the NBA’s version of the Final Four – San Antonio, Oklahoma City and Indiana – built their teams through smart, efficient drafts. As for Miami, the Heat pieced their dynasty together with friendship bracelets (LeBron + D-Wade + Bosh = Forever), 85-degree weather and vistas that include string bikinis.

Getting back to the current lottery system in place, it simply can’t be called a success when only three teams ever – New Jersey in 1991, Cleveland in 2003 and Orlando in 2004 – have won the top pick after having the league’s worst record. Utah and Charlotte, two small-market teams that must build through the draft, have never picked first in their histories.
  The Bobcats/Hornets/Jordans were devastated a couple of years ago when they had the worst winning percentage in NBA history and didn’t get the opportunity to nab Anthony Davis. Instead, they had to settle for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who couldn’t make a jump shot if he were locked in a gym by himself.

I personally think the five worst teams in the NBA deserve more overwhelming odds at nabbing the top pick in the draft. Those are the teams the most in need of talent and in the most need of shaking their fans out of the malaise created by losing. Such a move to a more heavily weighted lottery would likely keep teams like the 33-win Cavs from winning from the ninth spot in the pecking order.

I know that increased odds would only further encourage teams to tank away seasons, but the NBA could also put in place measures to make sure that purposeful losing is more difficult to accomplish. Teams would be required to not only start the season with a certainly salary base, but also finish it with a certain financial threshold. Also, Commissioner Silver could more freely invoke the ``good of the game’’ clause to veto lopsided trades, such as his predecessor, David Stern, did two years ago with Chris Paul.

Blatant tanking is a definitive issue for the NBA, and one that left a black mark on the league this past season. At times this past season, it seemed like there was more competition for the No. 1 draft pick than there was for the No. 1 playoff seeds. The league must put in more salary and trade restrictions to avoid more future tanking.

But the NBA also must address the gaffe that is the current lottery system. You know it’s flawed when the team with the worst record and best odds has lost out on the No. 1 pick 86.9 percent of the time (20 of 23 years). Give the teams that need the most help an added assist in the lottery. As long as they are losing without blatantly tanking and major mismanagement (yep, room for one more shot at the Cavs), the NBA needs to do everything in its power to help teams via a more heavily weighted lottery.
  Tank you very much.

Note: The contents of this page have not been reviewed or endorsed by the Orlando Magic. All opinions expressed by John Denton are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of the Orlando Magic or their Basketball Operations staff, partners or sponsors.

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Denton: NBA Draft Lottery May Need Repair

NEW YORK – Irked when the Orlando Magic’s placard was flipped over at fourth in Tuesday night’s NBA Draft Lottery, CEO Alex Martins squirmed in his chair and briefly allowed his shoulders to slump.

The Magic were disappointed to have fallen in the lottery – they had the third-best odds prior to the event – and they were bothered by the fact that they could potentially miss out now on some of the top stars in the June 26 NBA Draft.

But after digesting the initial shock of the moment, Martins was put at ease by knowing that the Magic’s team of personnel evaluators – led by General Manager Rob Hennigan – will make the best of a somewhat challenging situation and find the player that best suits Orlando’s roster. Orlando is one of just two NBA teams with two lottery picks – Philadelphia is the other – and Martins likes the Magic’s chances of landing one or two impact players.

``The thing that I have the most confidence in is our (front office) team because they have done such a good job of drafting and trading players and signing free agents so far,’’ Martins said. ``I know they will continue their great work. They have been working extremely hard all year long to gather all of the information and intel about these players on and off the court. We’re going to find in these picks in the first round two individuals who fit well into our culture, want to wear the Orlando Magic jersey and will work hard. The great news is that there’s a lot of talent in this draft and I’m confident that our guys will find the right players for us.’’

Martins exudes confidence because of the solid decisions that Hennigan and his staff have made in acquiring promising young talent and valuable salary cap flexibility over the past two seasons.  Following the defection of Dwight Howard, Hennigan had to basically start from scratch with the roster and he’s been able to establish a solid foundation in the form of Arron Afflalo, Nikola Vucevic, Victor Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Kyle O’Quinn and Maurice Harkless. Afflalo, Vucevic, Harkless – all starting players – and the No. 12 pick in this June’s NBA Draft came from the Howard trade. Hennigan also wisely flipped J.J. Redick’s expiring contract for Harris and he nailed the No. 2 pick in last year’s draft by snagging the rapidly improving Oladipo.

Added Martins: ``(The Magic Basketball Operations staff) is what I have the most confidence in. I know that our guys are working as hard or harder than anybody else. They’ve gathered all of the intel and they have watched thousands of hours of tape live and in person. I know that we will make great selections to compliment the young core that we already have. I have supreme confidence in that.’’

Hennigan will be tasked with finding a difference-maker of a player with the fourth pick. Most experts have slotted freshmen Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid into the first three spots as the most desirable players in the draft, but that could certainly change between now and the June 26 NBA Draft. Embiid, a shot-swatting center, missed the final week of Kansas’ regular season and two NCAA Tournament games because of a stress fracture in his back – an injury that could cause his draft stock to plummet.

Several other elite-level prospects – point guards Dante Exum and Marcus Smart, forwards Julius Randle, Noah Vonleh, Arron Gordon and Doug McDermott and shooters James Young and Nick Stauskas – are expected to be in play when the Magic select No. 4 and again No. 12.

Hennigan said that the Magic can take solace that the draft pool is considered to be especially deep a year after the 2013 class was panned for being short on talent and depth. Some experts have predicted that the 2014 class will rival that of 2003 that produced LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh.

Hennigan said that it eases the consternation picking fourth when there are so many players with tremendous potential in this draft.

``The draft is such that there are going to be good players available for awhile,’’ Hennigan said. ``That’s a positive thing for us and it’s our job to figure out who that right fit is for our team and our roster. … I’d be lying if I said we didn’t want the No. 1 pick. But it’s not deflating. This is where we’re sitting and where we’re picking and we have to make the most of our situation.’’

History also suggests that Orlando can still come out of this draft with a standout player. Dikembe Mutombo, Rasheed Wallace, Antawn Jamison, Chris Paul, Mike Conley and Russell Westbrook were all No. 4 selections in the NBA Draft. More recently, Tyreke Evans, Tristan Thompson, Dion Waiters and Cody Zeller were nabbed with No. 4 picks. Also, the last two Rookie of the Year award winners – Portland’s Damian Lillard and Philadelphia’s Michael Carter-Williams – came from the sixth and 11th picks in the past two drafts.

``I think that this is a very deep draft,’’ Martins said. ``We heard (ESPN analyst) Jay Bilas say that this is at least a one-round deep draft, if not into the second round. There is a very talented pool of young men who I think in those two picks will be great additions to our ball club.’’
  Hennigan and his staff have been preparing for this draft for two years and they have scouted dozens, if not hundreds of players, extensively both live and in person. That work has allowed them to see players progress and regress and get to know their personalities and work ethics. Hennigan stress that the work of learning more about players will continue for the next month as more interviews and personal workouts are conducted.

``There will be a lot of going through information and going through the information that we have gathered,’’ Hennigan said. ``We’ll be looking at where we think the roster needs the most improving. We’ll hopefully improve it through the draft and then moving into July. Now that the puzzle is set you have a much better idea of the types of guys who may or may not be in your range. Now, we can game plan accordingly.’’

Added Martins: ``There are no shortcuts and it takes time for players to grow. They’ve got to assimilate themselves and we have a really good young core of players already. They’re about to get two really talented teammates and they’re all going to grow together. This will be another great step in the process for us adding two more great young players.’’

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Magic Confident They Will Get Quality Talent in Draft

NEW YORK – So successful at the NBA Draft Lottery in years past, the Orlando Magic are going to have to rely on the depth of what is considered to be an exceptionally expansive NBA Draft following a somewhat unfortunate break on Tuesday night.

When the Magic’s placard was flipped over fourth in the televised version of the NBA Draft Lottery, Orlando’s front office staff and fans back in Central Florida were hit with the reality that the team would not be getting one of the top three picks in the June 26 NBA Draft. When the Magic missed out on one of the top three picks, they were automatically slotted in at No. 4 based on last season’s 23-59 record.

The Magic entered the night with the third-best odds of winning the top spot, but they fell behind Cleveland, Milwaukee and Philadelphia in the draft pecking order. The Cavaliers incredibly won the lottery a second straight year and the third time in the past four seasons. Milwaukee had the best odds in the draft by virtue of its 15-67 record, but it was the 11th straight year when the team with the worst record failed to get the top overall selection. Orlando was the last to do so when it won the first pick following a 21-61 season in 2004.

``Never a dull moment. We would have liked to have seen the highest number possible for us – all of the teams would – but we like where we’re sitting and we feel like we can get a good player,’’ said Magic GM Rob Hennigan, who was seated in the crowd along with CEO Alex Martins and head coach Jacque Vaughn. ``We feel like we have our work cut out for us these next couple of weeks to figure out who that (best player is), but we do like where we’re sitting.’’

In the actual lottery, which was held an hour earlier behind closed doors for team executives, a couple dozen NBA officials and five selected media members (including OrlandoMagic.com), Magic Senior Vice President of Communications Joel Glass knew the team’s fate early on. When the first four numbers drawn out stay high – 13, 7, 9 and 14 – the Magic had no shot at winning the first pick. Cleveland was assigned just 17 combinations (or a 1.7 percent chance), but its 10th combination shockingly came up.

Orlando, which had 156 four-digit combinations, was in the running for the second and third picks, but those slots went to Milwaukee (250 combinations) and Philadelphia (199 combinations). The winning numbers for Milwaukee were 8, 6, 11 and 1, while Philadelphia nabbed the third pick with 7, 2, 6 and 5.

``I think this is what it’s going to take to get Cleveland the championship that we promised them,’’ said Cleveland Vice Chairman Jeff Cohen, who has been present in the lottery room for all three of the Cavaliers’ wins. ``Winning last year was exciting, but this year the draft is world class and that makes this even better.’’

Orlando also has the 12th pick – compensation from the 2012 trading of Dwight Howard – to give them a second lottery pick with which it can add to the roster.

Martins said he has supreme confidence that Hennigan and his staff will uncover the best player available at No. 4. Experts are saying that this draft could be the most star-packed since the 2003 Draft that produced stars LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and Carmelo Anthony. Martins believes that the Magic will do the homework necessary to find the best player available at No. 4.

``Well, it’s certainly not where we hoped to be because you always want to win it, but it’s not as bad as it could have been either at No. 6,’’ Martins said. ``The fact of the matter is that this is that this is an incredibly talented draft and we’ve got two of the top 12 picks. We’re going to take the next month and work real hard and supplement all of the information that we’ve already gathered around these great, talented young men and make the right choices to help our ball club.’’

The lotto results likely mean that the Magic will miss out on a consensus top three of Jabari Parker, Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid if they remain at No. 4. A next tier of players including Kentucky forward Julius Randle, Australian point guard Dante Exum, Oklahoma State point guard Marcus Smart, Indiana forward Noah Vonleh and Creighton scorer Doug McDermott could be in play, but it’s far too early in the process to speculate which player might interest the Magic the most.

Hennigan said that time will tell if this draft is a star-studded and deep as most experts are tabbing it. Hennigan and his staff have been scouting many of the players from this class for two years, so they have good baseline measurements on those athletes. The Magic could start bringing players into Orlando as early as later this week for private workouts and physicals.

On the NBA Studios stage before a nationally televised audience, Magic Senior Vice President Pat Williams leaned back in his chair and let out a frustrated sigh when it was revealed that Orlando would pick fourth.

``The good news for Magic fans is that we’re still going to get two really nice, young prospects to join the current group of players,’’ Williams said. ``I think that’s exciting and fun. Seeing young players develop, that’s the best part of this business.’’

Williams, the Magic’s co-founder and a Hall of Famer, was taking part in his 12th NBA Draft Lottery with the Magic and he was hoping for his fifth lotto victory. He won once with the Philadelphia 76ers in 1986 and three times with the Magic in 1992, ’93 and 2004. Orlando, of course, used those first selections on franchise-changing stars Shaquille O’Neal, Penny Hardaway (via a trade) and Dwight Howard. Williams was also on the podium last May when Orlando nabbed the No. 2 pick with which it used to draft standout guard Victor Oladipo.

``I still think it’s nerve-wracking,’’ Williams said. ``You see the countdown from 14 on down and it’s pretty standard and you are hoping that there’s nothing weird that goes on. But there’s usually a team that jumps up there. We’ll be picking fourth, but we’re confident that we’ll still be able to get a really good player at that slot.’’

The Magic are excited about the prospects of adding two promising players to a strong core of players that includes Nikola Vucevic, Oladipo, Tobias Harris, Kyle O’Quinn and Maurice Harkless. Those players made tremendous strides this past season as Orlando knocked off some of the league’s best teams and posted a seven-win improvement in home games at the Amway Center.

Through the years, the lottery has served as a lifeline to provide the Magic with some of the best talent in the NBA. Orlando built the core of the 1995 NBA Finals team by getting Nick Anderson with the 11th pick in 1989, Dennis Scott with the fourth pick in 1990, O’Neal with the No. 1 pick in 1992 and Penny Hardaway in ’93 after trading Chris Webber.

The Magic were down on their luck again in 2004 following a 21-61 season and they were able to cull the No. 1 pick from the lottery. They picked Howard first overall and were back in the NBA Finals five years later in 2009.

Now, following 20- and 23-win seasons as the franchise transitioned from Howard to a new core of young and hungry players, the Magic are hoping to use their two lottery picks to add a couple of more standout players who can get them back in playoff contention.

``Once we figure out who we’re drafting and we figure out what they are about, we’ll have a better idea about how they fit with the other pieces,’’ Hennigan said. ``But right now, T.B.D. (to be determined).’’

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Magic Will Select 4th and 12th in 2014 NBA Draft

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Due to Tropical Storm Nicole, the NBA has announced that the Dallas Mavericks at Orlando Magic game on Wednesday, November 9 will tip-off at 5:30 PM. Amway Center doors open at 4:30 PM.