ORLANDO - There’s really no one specific way to settle an NBA All-Star Game selection debate. There are always a range of reasons why we think more highly of one player over another.
It’s like debating which coast of Florida has better beaches or which ride is the best at each of Walt Disney World’s theme parks. There are obvious differences between them, but ultimately, it’s all about individual preferences and experiences.
But that doesn’t mean a tale-of-the-tape breakdown between the NBA’s best can’t help us form an educated opinion.
The Orlando Magic’s Paolo Banchero is obviously one of the Eastern Conference’s best players, averaging 22.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and one steal through his team’s first 44 games. As expected, he is developing nicely following last season’s stellar Rookie of the Year campaign.
Here are reasons why the 6-foot-10, 250-pound versatile forward should be one of the 12 players chosen to represent the East in this year’s NBA All-Star Game in Indianapolis.
He’s a Quality Team’s Best Player
This is obviously a very generic observation, but it’s an important one in this discussion. To nobody’s surprise, Banchero has been Orlando’s best player this season. And considering the Magic are over .500 and in the playoff mix, it should be noted that he’s the top guy on a “quality” team.
Others with this designation amongst Eastern Conference All-Star candidates include Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum, Donovan Mitchell, and Tyrese Haliburton. They are each indisputably the best players on “quality” teams, and All-Star locks for that matter.
Jalen Brunson is obviously an All-Star this year and the Knicks are a quality team, but there’s a healthy debate out there as to who New York’s best player truly is. Julius Randle is a two-time All-Star himself averaging over 24 points per game this season.
Before the Raptors traded Pascal Siakam, it was debatable who between he and Scottie Barnes was Toronto’s best player. Plus, the Raptors are well below .500. Jaylen Brown is second on Boston’s depth chart behind Tatum; Kristaps Porzingis is third and Derrick White is fourth, offensively speaking anyway. Those are just a few examples.
Opponents Are Game Planning With Him First in Mind
What comes with being a team’s best player is a plethora of coverages. Banchero has seen just about everything this season, especially when the Magic were without Franz Wagner for eight games while he was rehabbing an ankle sprain.
Banchero has already received more double teams in isolation this season than he did all of last year, per Second Spectrum tracking data. The only players in the entire league who have been double teamed more than him this season are Antetokounmpo, Randle, Kawhi Leonard, Embiid and Anthony Davis.
Most impressive of all, regarding Banchero, is that he’s made excellent decisions in these situations. Below are examples:
Paolo Banchero Passing Out of Double Teams
He’s Doing Something Statistically Only Two Players Have Ever Done in Year 2
Mentioned earlier, Banchero is averaging 22.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and a steal. The only two players who reached those marks in their second NBA seasons since 1967 were LeBron James and Luka Doncic.
Obviously, there’s still half a season left, so we will see where Banchero’s numbers end up. But just simply being on pace to become the third player to accomplish this is quite extraordinary.
Add in the fact that he’s shooting over 35 percent from 3-point range, and that makes what he’s doing that much sweeter. This season, amongst all players regardless of experience level, Banchero is one of six players averaging 22-plus points, seven-plus rebounds, four-plus assists and at least one steal, while shooting 35-plus percent from beyond the arc. The others are Embiid, Nikola Jokic, Doncic, James and Tatum, who are each All-Star locks.
He's Generating a Ton of Open Looks for Teammates
The Magic being “inefficient” with Banchero on the floor is sheerly a narrative based around plain numbers and not eye test examination.
Banchero has made 211 passes that directly led to shot attempts in which a defender was further than six feet from the shooter, per Second Spectrum. That’s the 10th most in the entire league and fourth most among non-guards. The other three are Domantas Sabonis, Antetokounmpo and Jokic. However, the Magic have made just 34.6 percent of those shot attempts. Amongst those who have dished out at least 100 passes to wide open shooters (no defender within six feet of the shooter), that’s the second-lowest percentage. Only Cade Cunningham’s Detroit teammates have shot it worse.
The bottom line is, you can’t fault the passer, who’s making the right reads, if shots don’t fall. Banchero, and the same applies to Cunningham, is making “efficient” choices.
Along those lines, Banchero has dished out the 30th most kickout passes from the paint that led to 3-point shots and he’s handed out the fifth most passes from the paint to cutters, per data. Not many have ranked this high in both these categories since this data starting getting tracked a decade ago.
Go Rewatch the Games in Sacramento and Denver
Considering Orlando’s injury-related circumstances during that time, Banchero’s performances on the road in early January against the Kings and Nuggets – two of the West’s best – were arguably two of the league’s best individual performances this season.
Coming during a stretch in which he scored 25-plus points in six straight games, the 21-year-old erupted for a career-best 43 points in a double-overtime thriller in Sacramento and then two nights later, in the finale of the Magic’s four-game West Coast trip, he recorded his first triple-double with 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists in a victory over the defending champs in Denver.
With that triple-double, which included three steals, Banchero joined Michael Jordan, LeBron, Magic Johnson, Isiah Thomas, Steph Curry and Doncic as the only players in NBA history with a 30-10-10-three game before turning 22 years old.
He’s Been Super Clutch
One could argue that Banchero has been the most clutch player in the league this season. In the last five minutes of regulation or overtimes with the score differential within three points, he has made 20 of his 42 shot attempts (47.6 percent). Only two other players – Mikal Bridges and Curry – have taken at least 40 shots in these time and score circumstances.
Here's a quick review of some of Banchero’s big-time shots:
He made a game-winning driving left-landed layup in Utah with 14.1 seconds left on Nov. 2.
He made a game-winning turnaround jumper in the lane in Chicago with 1.4 seconds left on Nov. 15.
He made a few clutch baskets in Sacramento on Jan. 3, including a go-ahead 3-pointer in the fourth quarter with 15.9 seconds left and a tying layup with 1.1 seconds remaining in the first OT.
He made a pair of go-ahead free throws with 9.1 seconds left in Denver on Jan. 5.
He took over in OT against the Hawks on Jan. 7, making three floor shots in those added five minutes.
He had back-to-back buckets late in the fourth quarter in Miami on Jan. 12, including one over Jaime Jaquez Jr. that put Orlando temporarily in front with 38 seconds left.
He made a pair of mid-range jumpers down the stretch in New York on Jan. 15 that helped the Magic pull off a comeback victory.
He tied the game in Atlanta on Jan. 17 with a 3-pointer with 8.4 seconds before Dejounte Murray won it for the Hawks with a buzzer-beater.
He’s Outplayed Several Other All-Star Worthy Players in Head-to-Head Matchups
In the Magic’s one meeting so far against the Raptors on Nov. 21, Banchero posted 25 points and was a plus-14, while Barnes finished with 14 points and was a minus-22. Orlando won 126-107.
Although the Magic lost the game, Banchero exploded for a game-high 36 points on Dec. 17 in Boston playing against the Celtics’ collection of All-Star talent, including Tatum, Brown and Porzingis.
On Jan. 15 in New York, Banchero led Orlando to the win with 20 points. Randle had just 15 points on 5-of-18 overall shooting from the field.
Most recently, Banchero powered the Magic to a win over the Heat at Kia Center with 20 points and was a plus-17. Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler were a combined minus-25.
He’s Playing Defense, Too
Team-wise, the Magic are tied with the OKC Thunder for fifth in defensive rating. Banchero has played a big part in that.
In fact, among the 30 players who have been the closest defender to at least 500 shots this season, the Magic forward has the sixth-best defensive field goal percentage (45.4 percent), per Second Spectrum. The only players who rank higher are Paul George, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Derrick White, Embiid and Jrue Holiday. All five of those players deserve NBA All-Defensive Team consideration.
And Banchero has been tasked with guarding the other team’s top players in many cases. Just some numbers to back up that notion:
In the three games Orlando played Boston this season, Tatum was 2-for-8 this season with Banchero as his closest defender and Brown was 3-for-12. Earlier this season when the Magic played the Clippers in L.A., Leonard was 1-of-6 with Banchero near. In three Magic vs. Cavs games, Mitchell was 3-for-10 with Banchero defending.
Of course, the Magic don’t rely on any one player to stop anyone on the other team. Rather, they do things by committee, which is what makes them collectively such a staunch defensive unit.