The Great
Footwork, footwork, and more footwork. Franz Wagner makes up for a lack of speed and explosion with shiftiness and body control. It’s super unique, really. Not many players in the history of the game have ever had Wagner’s distinctive movements with the ball in his hands. He has a knack for detecting wrinkles in the defense while dribbling in and around traffic.
His crusading around generally leads to quality shots, too. While funky and awkward looking sometimes, the 20-year-old has a sweet touch on drives. Many of his shot attempts when attacking the basket are banked in, and some he tosses up from weird angles. He’s like a geometry guru on the basketball court. A human compass or protractor is a way to describe him. On drives, he’s shooting nearly 46 percent from the floor on 107 attempts. He’s taken the most shots on drives among all rookies to this point.
His length plays a big part in everything he does well. Even when he doesn’t blow past a defender, he’s able to connect on floaters right over whomever is trying to contest.
Terrence Ross recently said that Wagner reminds him of a bigger version of Gordon Hayward. That’s a very good assessment, from the standpoint that both are exceptional at altering pace and direction. Very herky-jerky, both do a lot of stopping and starting when they are navigating in the half court.
Best of all about Wagner is that he’s a legit two-way player. With his high basketball IQ, instincts, timing, and hustle, he’s wreaked havoc on the defensive end. Opponents have had a hard time getting clean shots off with him pestering and contesting. Just as examples, Julius Randle in the three games against New York combined made two of his eight shots with Wagner as the closest defender; in the Atlanta games Trae Young went 2-of-12; Jayson Tatum went 1-of-5 when Boston visited Orlando in early November. Incredibly versatile, the Germany native is capable of slowing down all kinds of players with different skillsets.
The Good
By the end of the season, don’t be surprised if playmaking jumps up into the “great” section. For now, since he’s still getting comfortable reading coverages in the pick-and-roll, a rating of “good” seems right. Lately with so many guys out, Wagner has been primarily playing point guard, and he’s been very impressive at that position.
This is where the Hedo Turkoglu comparison makes sense. Not many players 6-foot-10, which is what Wagner also is, were better at initiating the offense than the former Magic great. Earlier this season, that was analyzed (Read here for more on that).
As of now, Wagner is a decent spot-up 3-point shooter. Coming out of the University of Michigan, it was debatable whether 3-point shooting in general would be a strength or weakness of his at this level. The jury is still out on that. On the catch-and-shoot, he’s made 40.2 percent of his 3-point tries, which is very good. From the 3-point corners, he’s shooting a shade over 46 percent.
When he was predominantly playing off the ball, many of his made buckets came on cuts and backdoor dashes. He has a knack for evading defenders off relentlessness as well as recognizing when the defense has fallen asleep.
It’s only a matter of time before Wagner records his first NBA triple-double. He came close to one at Brooklyn on Saturday with 14 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. While stats don’t always tell the full story, in his case when he fills up the box score it usually suggests he impacted the game in a variety of ways.
Even at the point guard spot, he’s been keeping his turnovers down. Against Miami recently, he only committed one turnover while posting 27 points, six rebounds and four assists.
Areas to Improve
Right now, he doesn’t really have a pull-up jumper. He’s made only 31.1 percent of them. The question going forward is whether he can develop an “in-between” game. Prolific scorers generally excel at stopping and popping off the bounce. Cole Anthony, for instance, is terrific at that. From the mid-range, Wagner is shooting 36.8 percent, obviously a low mark.
Another wonder is whether he can add in a post-up game. Being 6’10 gives him an obvious advantage over most defenders, especially when he’s at a guard spot. As of now, he has not yet taken a shot off a post move.
Although great attacking the paint out of the pick-and-roll, he’s still learning how to create space for longer distance shots. Of the 116 times he’s taken a shot out of the pick-and-roll, per Second Spectrum, only 20 have been from 3-point range, seven of which were made.
When the Magic are back to full strength – and that includes having Markelle Fultz – it’s going to be interesting to see how he fits with the team’s cast of guards. Turkoglu as a point forward thrived playing alongside Jameer Nelson, for example. Remember, though, Nelson was a fantastic outside shooter, which is what point forwards need when they are orchestrating the offense. It gives them more space to operate.