ORLANDO - Franz Wagner’s 38 points against the defending-champion Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday was tied for the third most among rookies in Orlando Magic history. He shot 12-of-20 overall, 4-of-8 from 3-point range and went a perfect 10-of-10 from the free throw line.
Let’s go deeper into his career-best performance.
Wagner’s footwork on drives is advanced. His ability to knife through traffic, pivot around defenders and get downhill for floaters, hooks and layups is special. Not many players have a better Eurostep than the 6-foot-10 (point) forward, which he uses often to evade secondary defenders and avoid charges.
His movements on drives are a bit Manu Ginobili-esque, although with less speed, shiftiness, and ball-handling creativity. Ginobili, in his prime with the San Antonio Spurs, was an acrobat on drives. He had extraordinary body control when he accelerated downhill and was incredibly slithery. It was extremely difficult to strip the ball from him, largely because he always thought several steps ahead of his opponents. But stylistically, the craftiness, relentlessness, and touch around the basket are similar.
Perhaps most impressive of all about Wagner is that he generally takes care of the ball when attacking the paint. He’s only committed 10 turnovers on his 318 drives, per Second Spectrum tracking data. Considering he’s a heavy dribbler, with 4.8 of his 13.1 shots per game coming after taking at least three dribbles, that’s impressive.
One of his more impressive buckets from Tuesday came when he posted Khris Middleton up and spun away from him for a layup. One of the big questions going forward is whether Wagner, taller than many of his defenders, can develop a refined post-up game. There are signs he is capable of this, as he has made seven of his 11 shot attempts when posting up.
Another particularly impressive bucket was a step-back 3-pointer he drilled from the left corner. This is critical because right now Wagner doesn’t really possess much of an isolation game where he can create separation and knock down tightly-guarded shots by fading back or falling away (a staple of prolific NBA scorers). So far this season, he’s taken 19 step-backs, per Second Spectrum, making just seven of them. Most of the league’s elite have this in their arsenal. Some are obviously better at it than others. For example, Devin Booker, Zach LaVine and DeMar DeRozan are elite step-back shooters. Luka Doncic, meanwhile, isn’t the most efficient on his step-backs, but he takes a ton of them to mix it up and keep the defense guessing.
Attempting a career-high 10 free throws was an important part of his stat line. As he gets stronger, his AND-1 rate should increase. Only 10 times so far this season he’s connected on a shot while drawing a foul. Considering he’s so relentless attacking the basket, it will help if he can finish more frequently through the contact.
Let’s now get into Wagner’s pick-and-roll game. One of his player comps coming into the NBA was former Magic great Hedo Turkoglu, one of the savviest pick-and-roll playmakers of his era. Wagner shares so many of the same traits that Turkoglu had. Let’s remember that Turkoglu, who was also 6’10, blossomed as a point forward with the Magic. With the Sacramento Kings and Spurs before joining the Magic, he primarily was an off-the-ball catch-and-shoot threat.
So far, 28 percent of Wagner’s shots have come out of the pick-and-roll (as the ball handler). He’s only shooting 38.7 percent in these situations, but it appears he’s getting more comfortable operating in a 3-5 or 3-4 pick-and-roll set. He and Wendell Carter Jr. have very good chemistry. Carter is a solid screener, which helps free up space for whomever is the ball handler.
The area of Wagner’s game that is likely to improve is his passing. The 2021 NBA Draft class is unique in that several “point forwards” were selected high. Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes, Josh Giddey, Wagner and Jalen Johnson all fit into that category, and all are showing flashes of what they can be in this league.
One pass that stood out against the Bucks was a cross-court baseball hurl to Hassani Gravett after a double-team came. Gravett missed the shot, but the execution was phenomenal. Expect Wagner’s assist totals to steadily rise, particularly if he continues to be used in that point forward role.
How he will adapt when the Magic are at full strength is an interesting question going forward. With Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs and Markelle Fultz all out, the ball is in Wagner’s hands a lot. Will that change when they all return? Floor spacing is crucial. If Wagner is in a point forward role, he will need shooters spread out around him on the perimeter. Anthony, Suggs, and Fultz are pick-and-roll ball-dominant guards. The good news is that with the Magic in the early stages of their rebuild, they can afford to explore different tactics to see what works best and how all of them can mesh well together.
We shouldn’t ignore his defensive effort against Middleton, one of the league’s best mid-range scorers. Wagner’s length made things tough on the two-time NBA All-Star, who took just six of his 14 total shots with the Germany-born 20-year-old as the closest defender.
