The addition of the NBA’s play-in tournament has changed the league’s equilibrium. It used to be almost a perfect divide between playoff and non-playoff teams, 16-14, but now 20 teams play beyond 82 games. And the ripple effect means another few teams in each conference are within reach of a postseason berth.
And that all serves to complicate Dwane Casey’s mission over the final 23 games wedged into 46 days as the Pistons filter back from the All-Star break for the season’s final six-plus weeks. The Pistons are one of only three teams in the East – arguably two – and two more in the West for which the playoffs are out of reach. That means only three or perhaps four – depending on whether Orlando, four games back in the loss column of the final play-in spot in the East, still views itself as a viable postseason contender – of the remaining 23 Pistons games will come against an opponent without clear stakes.
So Casey and his staff, in charge of a unit with plenty of individual quests to chase over the season’s waning days, must find a way to convey a sense of purpose for the Pistons as a team to manufacture a competitive environment and maximize the final 23 games.
“We’re a developing team, so we’re kind of in the doldrums,” Casey said as the All-Star break approached. “ ‘I’m tired of hearing Coach yell about switching, boxing out, hearing the same thing.’ We have 20-some games to go in the season. We still have to improve. We still have to get better. We still have to grow. That’s the mindset we have to have.”
The Pistons thought it possible to make a leap this season to be one of those teams challenging for a postseason berth as the All-Star break approached, but they understood given the preposterous youth of their core – four starters 21 or younger even without Cade Cunningham in the mix – meant everything would need to fall into place. And when Cunningham, the essential building block at the heart of their rebuilding, was lost for the season after 12 games the domino effects were overwhelming.
But nothing about their long-term optimism has changed. They got even younger at the trade deadline by shipping out Saddiq Bey for another 21-year-old, James Wiseman. And that’s where we start on the checklist of things that will occupy the attention of Troy Weaver, Casey and their cabinets over these next 46 days.
Unlock Wiseman – Wiseman squeezed in one game before the All-Star break and after the anxious days between the trade’s consummation and Golden State’s decision to accept its terms despite concerns over Gary Payton II’s physical readiness. And in that one game at Boston, when Wiseman recorded 11 points and five rebounds in 24 minutes, the reasons Weaver remains intrigued by the 7-foot-1 center’s potential were obvious. He’s an enormously gifted big man who for reasons of circumstance – injury and lack of opportunity given Golden State’s window of contention – has fashioned a career stuck in neutral to date. Knocking off the rust, rebuilding his confidence and figuring out how he fits will be the clearest objective of the season’s remainder.
Assessing the frontcourt – Once Wiseman inches closer to getting up to speed, then the Pistons can assess exactly how the four young pieces Weaver has assembled mesh. Is Wiseman a center only or can he reasonably play alongside Jalen Duren? Can he work in lineups with Marvin Bagley III when Bagley returns from the hand injury that’s sidelined him since Jan. 2? Can one of Bagley or Wiseman show enough at both ends to consider using them interchangeably and in tandem to give the Pistons optimal lineup flexibility down the road?
Stewart’s acclimation – With Wiseman in the fold and Bagley on the verge of a return – and Duren showing every sign of becoming a first-rate starting center – it seems increasingly likely that Isaiah Stewart will be close to a full-time power forward for the foreseeable future. That evolution was paused while the Pistons were left short in the middle by Bagley’s injury, but Stewart’s best equipped to play as a power forward among the four young big men. And if that’s going to be his future, then using the final quarter of this season to prepare him for that ahead of 2023-24 seems a likely course.
Ivey’s arc – The rookie has impressed the Pistons with his vision and playmaking from day one, but they never intended for him to have the ball in his hands as primary playmaker to the degree that’s been forced upon him by Cunningham’s plight. Going forward, the vision remains for Ivey to play off the ball and use his speed and athleticism to attack from the weak side while being a dynamic transition force. But the Pistons realized if there was a silver lining to Cunningham’s extended absence it had to be for the opportunity it gave Ivey to spread his wings. So far, so good. Another 23 games to continue to hone his feel for when and where to attack, to polish his mid-range and floater game and to sharpen his 3-point stroke all while running the offense should make Ivey a more dangerous complementary sidekick for Cunningham in his second season.
Hayes’ resurgence – Hands down, the promise Hayes has shown after a rocky first few weeks of his third season has been a prominent beacon for the organization. He’s hit a bit of a lull over the past few weeks, so coming back from the All-Star break and getting it back on track for the home stretch going into the critical summer between seasons three and four – with a potential contract extension decision looming for the Pistons – would offer some clarity as to Hayes’ future. There is surely room for all three of the fully realized versions of Cunningham, Ivey and Hayes in future Pistons backcourts. Hayes’ defense and vision remain his calling cards, but if he’s also the plus 3-point threat with a rapidly blossoming feel for the mid-range that he showed to be at mid-season, he becomes a weapon of a different magnitude.
Duren’s defense – The NBA’s youngest player has blown past any reasonable expectation for his rookie season. He’s already an elite offensive rebounder and a lob threat that demands attention. The chemistry he’s forged with fellow rookie Jaden Ivey has been eye-opening over the past month. Duren’s next step is to become a more instinctive rim protector. It’s a huge ask to expect a rookie to process all that’s required of the defensive quarterback’s role and Duren, understandably, is sometimes paralyzed by indecision as pick-and-roll sequences play out around him. The Pistons have been punished by savvy playmakers, the primary reason they’re ranked 29th defensively, but the 1,800 minutes Duren is on track to record as a rookie will pay dividends next season and beyond if he can finish strong and come back a more intuitive and confidence defender for his sophomore season.
Evaluate Hampton – R.J. Hampton was waived by Orlando on Tuesday and multiple credible reports say he’ll sign with the Pistons – who have an open roster spot after this month’s trade to acquire James Wiseman at the cost of Saddiq Bey and Kevin Knox – when he clears waivers on Thursday. Hampton was the 24th pick in the 2020 draft and was considered a likely lottery pick at one point. He just turned 22 and the talent induced speculation he’d be a Pistons target with the seventh pick that year – the one used on Hayes – is still sometimes on full display. In fact, one of Hampton’s best performances came at Little Caesars Arena in his rookie season: 16 points, seven rebounds and 10 assists in a 119-112 Orlando win on May 3, 2021. There aren’t many open roster spots around the league and the preponderance of those available are held by playoff contenders looking for veteran help. There aren’t many teams in position to give a diamond in the rough like Hampton a look, in other words, and it makes perfect sense for the Pistons to bring him in now and see if and how he fits in their future.