It’s been two years since the Pistons came to the decision to change course with their trade of Andre Drummond. That’s no more than the mid-point of a typical rebuild, one that so far has seen Troy Weaver pluck Jerami Grant in free agency and land Cade Cunningham with the first overall No. 1 pick to bless the franchise in 51 years.
Nothing derails rebuilds quite like recklessness born of impatience, so when Thursday’s trade deadline came and went Weaver threw a few more chips into the middle of the table – combining fliers taken on Josh Jackson and Trey Lyles into a more ambitious one on Mavin Bagley III – but held on to his most treasured assets to use another day.
Until the NBA began hyperventilating about the likelihood of a James Harden-for-Ben Simmons deal that ultimately came to pass, nobody fed the rumor mill quite like Grant this trade season. Good reason for that: He’s a talent that fits on any roster and has roundly outperformed the contract Weaver was questioned for offering 15 months ago.
But there was no urgency to trade him unless the return created a more certain path to the rarefied level Weaver set as the unambiguous goal on the day owner Tom Gores named him general manager in June 2020. Just as Grant would fortify any playoff team’s odds of extending their season, so he helps a franchise in the place the Pistons find themselves.
Look no further than the other side of Lake Erie where Cleveland began its rebuild two years ahead of the Pistons, appeared to tread water for three years despite adding mid- to high lottery picks Collin Sexton, Darius Garland and Isaac Okoro – making some Bagley-type deals along the way – and now finds itself in the mix for home-court advantage in the 2022 postseason after adding a fourth lottery pick, Evan Mobley.
It doesn’t necessarily mean the Pistons must wait another two years for a Cavaliers-like leap, but it absolutely means they weren’t wrong for holding on to Grant for offers that didn’t move the needle for Weaver – not with Grant under contract through the end of the 2022-23 season.
As for Bagley, he’s 22 and was the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft after a freshman season at Duke in which he averaged 21 points and 11 rebounds. At 6-foot-11, he brings size to a roster that needed exactly that. Against the perception that he’s been a disappointment – fostered mostly by being known as the guy taken ahead of Luka Doncic and Trae Young – is the reality that he’s averaged 13.5 points and 7.4 rebounds around injuries, organizational instability and vacillating roles. You can bet there are plenty of Weaver’s peers across the NBA who would have jumped at the chance to take a similar shot at reviving Bagley’s career if they were in a position to give him that shot.
Bagley’s wasn’t the first career to leap the tracks in Sacramento and he wouldn’t be the first to find his footing in year four or later. He is the textbook definition of the worthwhile gamble a franchise on the Pistons timeline should explore. And, really, what’s the gamble? Jackson had fallen out of the rotation and will be a free agent after the season and Bagley fills the role Lyles held – with a gaping opportunity to blossom into something more substantial.
Bagley will be a restricted free agent at season’s end, giving the Pistons a significant home-court advantage to retain him, and you can bet they have a pretty clear idea what it will take to do so and are comfortable with the commitment. Bagley gets a chance under a general manager who no doubt thought highly of him dating to his pre-Duke days and with a coach who’s had a rich track record of bolstering the confidence of young players with graphic examples still populating Toronto’s roster.
At 22, he fits neatly into a roster with three 30-year-olds, Grant at 27 and 12 players 24 or younger and eight of those 22 or younger. The trade also leaves the Pistons with an open roster spot for Weaver to fill with another no-risk flier if he chooses. There will be another whirl at the lottery wheel in June, too, where the Pistons are still owed some good fortune despite landing at No. 1 and taking Cunningham, everything they fantasized he’d be so far.
That’s a lot of chips to be sitting on, in other words, and no compelling reason to recklessly push them to the middle until the pot warrants such action. Nothing messes up a restoration quite like desperation. Let’s see what the next deal offers.