Can the Pistons make the kind of leap next season that division rival Cleveland took this year? That and a lot more about what the future holds for the Pistons in this week’s edition of Pistons Mailbag.
@Kyle63938022: Who would be your favorite prospect that the Pistons could land in the draft this year?
Langlois: I imagine I’d have a clearer order of preference if I’d watched the top few handfuls of prospects with the regularity and critical eye of a pro scout, but I’ve seen games here and there over the course of the college season and not pored over them with the rigor that real scouting demands. That said, which of the top prospects excites me most sort of depends on the day of the week and which one I’ve seen most recently. I caught a few Duke games early in the season and was lukewarm on Paolo Banchero, but am more bullish on him after watching him later in the season and in the NCAA tournament. Jabari Smith’s shooting stroke is intoxicating. I don’t think you can go wrong with him even if he proves average defensively and as a rebounder and facilitator. I’ve heard a lot of “Chet Holmgren is too thin and will be a bust” talk and, sorry, I don’t agree with that. I don’t know that he’ll be an All-Star, exactly, but I think he's going to move the needle for his team in a year or two. Keegan Murray had some breathtaking performances and I think he’ll be a guy whose scoring will translate. Jaden Ivy’s athleticism jumps out. I think that’s probably the top five in my mind at this point and there’s no compelling argument that any of them would be poor fits for the Pistons. We’ll know soon enough where the Pistons stand in the lottery, but if they wind up with a top-five pick I think they’ll come out of the draft in pretty good shape.
Langlois: There are a lot of parallels. Cleveland took a leap after going the rebuilding route – not so much its choice as the outcome of LeBron James leaving in free agency – and four trips to the lottery (Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Isaac Okoro, Evan Mobley). The Cavs got a big third-year leap from Garland, added an impact rookie (Mobley) and got another boost from the contributions made by Jarrett Allen, obtained when the Cavs used a flexible cap sheet to facilitate the James Harden trade to Brooklyn. The Pistons will have had three lottery trips, including the one upcoming, after their choice to rebuild was triggered by the February 2020 trade of Andre Drummond. If they get something even close to a Mobley-level contributor out of the 2022 draft and can add a quality veteran via trade or free agency with the cap space they’ll have, yeah, I can see a significant leap. The Pistons have been highly competitive since Jerami Grant and Kelly Olynyk returned in February. They figure to get a healthy dose of in-house improvement from the bevy of first- and second-year players who have accrued invaluable experience this season by choice – the Pistons prioritized player development over winning this season – and by necessity given the injuries to Grant, Olynyk and others. Like Cleveland, the Pistons also figure to benefit from relative roster stability. After the massive upheaval that took place in Troy Weaver’s first 12 months on the job, the Pistons have the majority of their roster under team control for next season. Cade Cunningham will be infinitely more comfortable to start next season than he was when he got thrown into the fire as a rookie after missing training camp and the early going of the regular season with an ankle injury. The Pistons won’t have to be twice as good next season to double their win total. As Cleveland showed this season, once the groundwork has been laid a few key pieces dropped into place can dramatically alter the mix – and the outcomes.
@ck2_originals/IG: Who is your all-time Pistons starting five?
Langlois: Isiah Thomas is the easiest call. He’s your point guard. I’ll give the edge to Joe Dumars as his running mate in the backcourt over Dave Bing – that’s the toughest call on the list – with Rip Hamilton and Chauncey Billups getting honorable mention. Grant Hill is on the wing. His six years with the Pistons were dazzling. If he’d stayed healthy and in a Pistons uniform another three or four years, I think we’d be debating Thomas or Hill as the greatest Piston of all-time. Dennis Rodman’s defensive prowess – especially during his Pistons days when he was capable of guarding every position, the type of descriptor that gets tossed around today for a lot of players but doesn’t really apply the way it did for vintage Rodman – and rebounding make him the call for the other wing/power forward slot. (Never forget that Jack McCloskey, who was in on the ground floor of the NBA and watched every minute unfold until his death in 2017, said Rodman was both the greatest rebounder and greatest defender he’d ever seen.) I’ll take Bob Lanier over Ben Wallace and Bill Laimbeer – in that order – in the middle, though you could make the case for all three. What Lanier did was remarkable, though, given that he came to the Pistons off a devastating knee injury in an era when those things were often career-enders. Thomas, Dumars, Hill, Rodman, Lanier. I’ll go with that five.
Darrell (Detroit): The Pistons most glaring holes are shooting and low-post defense. When teams field a small lineup, Isaiah Stewart thrives. But when teams play a huge center, the Pistons get manhandled. Many people are convinced the Pistons will try to sign Deandre Ayton. I believer there is a better solution. Per 36 minutes, Ayton’s line is 21 points, 12.3 rebounds, 1.7 assists and less than a steal and a block. Andre Drummond’s line per 36 is 14 points and a league-leading 16.8 rebounds, including 5.6 on the offensive end, 3.4 assists, 2 steals and 1.7 blocks. It will take roughly $30 million a year to steal Ayton from the league-leading Phoenix Suns. Drummond won’t join the Pistons on a veteran minimum, but can probably be had at roughly three years, $21 million or the duration of Beef Stew’s rookie contract. The center position will be secure for the next three years, the Pistons will save $100 million, which can then be used to attract shooting, and Beef Stew gets to continue to realize his potential as a starter. Drummond’s style was never conducive to starting but is perfect as a backup and he was a fan favorite in Detroit for years.
Langlois: Pretty sure Plan A for the frontcourt is to re-sign Marvin Bagley III. With Isaiah Stewart and Kelly Olynyk under team control for next season and Luka Garza also signed, unless there’s a deal that sends someone from that group out I’d be a little surprised if the Pistons were in the market for another big man. There’s also some possibility they draft a player who adds to their frontcourt. What direction they go in free agency is going to be influenced by the draft, most likely. I never put much stock in the chance of Ayton being pried away from Phoenix. The Pistons aren’t going to have $30 million – not when you factor in the hefty cap hold for a high or mid-lottery pick – barring some unforeseen significant roster maneuverings and, regardless, Phoenix’s ability to match an offer sheet complicates the pursuit. While both Olynyk and Bagley are capable of playing power forward, the nature of today’s NBA realistically limits the minutes per game a center/power forward hybrid can spend guarding the types of fours prevalent on every roster these days. I don’t think you’d want Olynyk or Bagley guarding the likes of Jayson Tatum, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, et al, when those teams go with the smaller lineups they frequently employ. I’ll offer the closing minutes of Tuesday’s game at Brooklyn as evidence. Dwane Casey went mostly down the stretch with Braxton Key on the floor rather than use the Stewart-Bagley tandem which would have left one of them to guard either Kevin Durant or try to guard an even smaller player on the perimeter when Brooklyn had Kyrie Irving and Goran Dragic on the floor together. I’d be more worried about having counters for those lineups than for the “huge” centers you reference. If you’re thinking about Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic, yes, they’re a handful for any defender. But I don’t know that Stewart gets manhandled much these days.
@adam_peterss/IG: If you had to choose between Shaedon Sharpe and Ben Mathurin, who would you pick?
Langlois: Never having seen Sharpe play – he’s at Kentucky but didn’t play at all this season and it’s uncertain he’ll be in the draft – I guess Mathurin at this point. He had some dynamic outings this season – 27 points when Arizona beat UCLA in the Pac-12 championship game, 30 in the NCAA tournament win over TCU – and looks to have the stuff to be a good two-way player at a valuable position. The buzz on Sharpe was almost exclusively generated by his performance on last summer’s EYBL circuit. That would make me a little nervous if I was picking in the top 10, but maybe NBA front offices have a better handle on it and feel they have a fairly complete picture of Sharpe. The book on him is that he’s got the rare combination of elite athleticism and high-end skill and if that’s confirmed by whatever NBA front offices can gather on him, then there will be a point in this draft – one where there could be wide variances in evaluations once you get past the top five or so – where teams will be more willing to gamble on that upside. Mathurin is generally regarded as someone who’s probably in the next five, so your question is apt. Someone considering Mathurin is probably going to be at that point in the draft where Sharpe’s supposed star potential would make him a tempting pick.