The summer is winding down and that means the NBA season isn’t far off. This week’s edition of Pistons Mailbag looks at some of the roster and lineup questions on the horizon for the 2023-24 season.
@adamoswald7: If you had to answer now and the roster stays as it is for the first game of the season, how do you see the 4/5 playing out depth chart-wise?
Langlois: Jalen Duren over James Wiseman at center, Isaiah Stewart over Marvin Bagley III at power forward. If we’re talking certainty of roles, I’d say Duren and Stewart have separated themselves a bit. The larger question, since depth charts are a bit more fungible than ever, is whether Wiseman or Bagley can separate from each other to establish one as the clear No. 3 big man. I think there’s a reasonable chance – perhaps even a likelihood – that Duren and Stewart are opening-night starters alongside each other in a two-big lineup. But I’d say it’s less likely – and maybe far less likely – that Monty Williams fields a two-big second unit. And if that’s the case, then it’s either Wiseman or Bagley as the big man with the bench unit and the runner-up in that competition is out of the rotation. I thought Duren came out of Summer League with a leg up to be the starting center and his showing at USA Basketball camp with the Select Team, where he generated more buzz than anyone this side of Cade Cunningham, affirmed that notion. The other possibility is that Williams isn’t comfortable with a starting unit of two big men and decides Bojan Bogdanovic is the starter at power forward. There’d be a balancing act to consider – gaining 3-point shooting at the expense of rebounding and, likely, defense in general – but it indeed bears consideration. Isaiah Livers would also be in the running with Bogdanovic at the other forward spot in that case.
Langlois: Bogdanovic serves critical functions as an elite 3-point shooter who can get his own shot. That also makes him attractive to other teams. If the Pistons trade him, they can’t easily replicate his contributions unless they get a similar player back – doubtful, because a team trading for Bogdanovic probably doesn’t have someone similar to him. So if it seems there’s a high bar for the Pistons in a Bogdanovic trade, that’s probably because there is. They’ve got him under contract for this season and next at a number that’s more than reasonable given the escalating salary cap. With Cade Cunningham looking like he’s ready to hit the ground running based on the scintillating reports coming out of Team USA camp in Las Vegas, having a sidekick like Bogdanovic as a reliable scorer will give the Pistons a lot more punch in a season where they would love to take a big jump under Monty Williams. Anyone coming for Bogdanovic better have an offer that includes someone who can approximate his contributions in addition to a future asset or two.
@mason.eleczko/IG: Is Cade Cunningham fully recovered? And I’m wondering if you can give my boy Isaiah Livers more playing time.
Langlois: Cunningham was the talk of Team USA’s training camp in Las Vegas last week, generating headlines at sites like ESPN.com and The Athletic after leading the Select Team past the World Cup roster. Cunningham reportedly turned down an invitation to join the team heading off to represent the United States in the World Cup in order to stay with his rehabilitation plan to ensure he’s best equipped to stand up to the 82-game schedule. The fact Cunningham was not just playing highly competitive five-on-five basketball but dominating against some of the best young players in the world – after being away from NBA-level competitive basketball for almost nine months – is an incredibly encouraging sign for him and the Pistons. As for Livers, only nagging injuries have prevented him from establishing himself more firmly to date. His combination of size, shooting, defense and basketball IQ quickly endeared him to Troy Weaver and Dwane Casey. He spoke after the season about focusing on his body to guard against the soft tissue injuries he’s endured so far. If Livers can string together injury-free months, he’s got a real chance to gain some traction.
@chi11imac: If Philly was inclined, would you trade Duren, Stewart, Ivey/Hayes and future picks for Embiid? Do you believe the Pistons win multiple championships?
Langlois: “Future picks” is a little too vague. Are we talking something on the order of what Minnesota sent to Utah for Rudy Gobert – four first-rounders plus a pick swap? Embiid is 29 and coming off an MVP season. He can – and often does – dominate at both ends. Back and foot injuries serious enough to keep him sidelined for his first 2½ NBA seasons haven’t prevented him from becoming one of the game’s greatest players, but he's not played more than 68 games in a season yet and his teams have never reached the conference finals. This is a purely academic exercise because Philadelphia isn’t trading Embiid – unless, of course, Embiid forces the 76ers hand and there’s been nothing to date to believe that’s imminent. Your “Ivey/Hayes” inclusion could be interpreted as “one of” and, if that’s the case, one of those things is not like the other. Ivey has considerable trade value coming off a soaring finish to his rookie season while Hayes has negligible value at the moment. And Stewart, Duren and Ivey plus draft picks would be what it would take to get the attention of any team dealing a perennial All-NBA player. The Pistons would be left with Cade Cunningham, Ausar Thompson and Embiid as the core with James Wiseman, Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Livers plus veterans like Monte Morris, Bogan Bogdanovic and Alec Burks to field a competitive team in the short term but not much flexibility beyond that to add to the mix. Forget about multiple championships. If you think that team is good enough to win one, you do the trade. The exposure to risk is pretty broad, of course. If it doesn’t produce results within the first two or three years, you’re going to have a tough time digging back out. The temptation would be great, but I’d need more intimate knowledge of Embiid’s likelihood to stay dominant into his mid-30s to feel confident making that deal if it included the multiple firsts plus pick swaps that are now de rigueur for players of his stature.
@ajay.suresh4/IG: Is there a strong chance the Pistons make the playoffs?
Langlois: The Pistons have a great chance to be a much, much better team than they were a season ago, when injuries – starting with Cade Cunningham sidelined after just 12 games – undermined their chances to make that leap a year earlier. That said, they’d have to more than double their win total of 17 to even put themselves in the running for a play-in berth. Thirty-four wins would have been good for 13th place in the Eastern Conference last season. It took 40 to make the play-in tournament and 45 to avoid the play-in and get a top-six seed. A lot has to go right for that to happen, starting with good health, and I doubt we’ll hear Monty Williams or anyone else say on Oct. 2, media day, that it’s beyond their reach. But I wouldn’t say “strong chance” applies, either. The Pistons would have to beat out five teams that finished ahead of them last season to crack the play-in field and only Washington among those five doesn’t expect to be improved. The East has never been deeper than it is right now. The Pistons have a bright future, but going from 17 wins to the playoffs in one season is an enormous ask.
@TheTealMustang: Why is Killian still here?
Langlois: Because his trade value is negligible at this point, which makes him worth more to the Pistons on the chance he can get back to the player he showed he can be for about a month before the midway point of last season than to any other team. Hayes just turned 22. He was always going to be a player who needed some time to gain traction given the circumstances – point guard coming from Europe, missing three months to start his rookie season, all of the challenges of coming to the NBA during the COVID period. I don’t know where the opportunity to flourish will come when the Pistons have Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Alec Burks and Monte Morris plus rookie Marcus Sasser in the backcourt, but crowded depth charts always seem to resolve themselves. There’s still a decent chance the Pistons execute a trade or two before the season starts and it’s conceivable Hayes is involved in a multiplayer deal to balance salaries, much as Saben Lee was part of the Bojan Bogdanovic-Kelly Olynyk trade on the eve of training camp last year. Beyond that, I think he’s coming to training camp hoping to force his way into the rotation. It’s the last year of his rookie contract and important for Hayes’ future to establish himself this season.
@maddox_brower09/IG: Is Ausar going to be in the starting lineup and how much playing time is he looking at?
Langlois: On paper, he seems a better fit with a second unit that can surround him with shooters in some combination that includes Monte Morris, Alec Burks, Isaiah Livers and Joe Harris where his defense, rebounding and passing will mesh well. The way he starts is if Monty Williams decides against a two-big lineup that sees Bojan Bogdanovic as the nominal power forward and opens a spot at small forward. Spacing would be a concern, I would imagine, but it’s at least a conceivable option. As for playing time, there are too many variables to hazard a guess. The biggest is Thompson’s readiness. If he proves an immediate plus defender and finds a niche offensively that outweighs the lack of a perimeter threat then the sky’s the limit. The greater likelihood is that he gets typical bench minutes, meaning 15 to 20 a game. It’s also possible he starts the season on the outside of the rotation. The Pistons have better depth than they’ve had in a long time. They can field a formidable second unit that includes some combination of James Wiseman, Marvin Bagley III, Harris, Livers, Burks and Morris without Thompson.
Walter (Warren, Mich.): Tell me the Pistons are going to be a better offensive team this season and why.
Langlois: If they avoid catastrophic injuries, they’re going to be a markedly better offensive team. They finished 28th in offensive efficiency last season and 27th in effective field-goal percentage. Give them Cade Cunningham and Bojan Bogdanovic for 70-plus games apiece and they’ll improve those numbers considerably. Monte Morris is going to have a role on this team and his caretaking of the basketball and shooting efficiency will be a boon to a second unit that should be a strength of the Pistons. They finished 22nd in 3-point shooting at 35.1 percent last season, but the difference between 22nd and middle-of-the-pack is less than one more made 3-pointer every other game. Yeah, that’s going to happen when you add quality 3-point shooters like Joe Harris and Morris to a group that includes Bogdanovic and Alec Burks. Cunningham looks poised for a huge season and the ripple effects of that will be felt across the spectrum of offensive statistics. Then fold in the improvement anticipated for other young players like Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey and Isaiah Livers. It remains to be seen the blueprint Monty Williams has in store for them, but we’re talking about a coach who twice was voted Coach of the Year by his peers. I think he’s going to figure it out.
@ck2art/IG: Who is the most underappreciated Piston on this roster? Who is it all-time?
Langlois: He’s not on the roster at present, but I would have said Rodney McGruder over the past two years for the impact he had on young players with the daily example of professionalism he provided but also for his rare ability to sit for weeks at a time and be effective when thrown into the fray in any variety of roles. I’m not sure Monte Morris really qualifies as underappreciated, but I also don’t think the breadth of Pistons fans has a feel for how big an impact he can have on this year’s team. I think he’s going to be the bellwether of a second unit I expect to give the Pistons advantages most nights. All-time? Whew, that’s a tough one. The two championship-era rosters were universally adored, so I don’t think anyone from either era fits the category. Hall of Famers shouldn’t be considered underappreciated, and yet my sense is that Dave Bing and Bob Lanier don’t get their due because they played in an era when the Pistons had yet to truly capture the hearts of the region’s fans and played long enough ago that not many are around today to know their greatness. But they were all-time greats. Before suffering a serious eye injury, Bing was electric – a terrific athlete with great touch and IQ. Lanier was such a unique combination of enormous size and uncommon grace that he’d have been a fit for any era of big man. Great hands, great feet, great strength. The Pistons didn’t do a very good job of putting a team around them or they’d have been the pair that led the franchise to its first NBA title.